Orioles Lose Zach Pop and Grey Fenter in Rule Five

[Legend_Of_Joey]

3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

He was just off out list though we like the upside of him a bit as a reliever. The question was command of his fastball, curveball combo against upper level hitters and his age was becoming a factor. I could see the Orioles being a little aggressive with him and maybe even see how he does against AA hitters this year in a relief role.

I feel like he was in Low A forever. Was it due to stuff or mainly injuries? I can’t remember.

[camdencrush]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s not the innings..it’s the stuff.  If he shows that, he’s in.

You're probably right. I always liked his stuff. I hope he makes it

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

He was just off out list though we like the upside of him a bit as a reliever. The question was command of his fastball, curveball combo against upper level hitters and his age was becoming a factor. I could see the Orioles being a little aggressive with him and maybe even see how he does against AA hitters this year in a relief role.

They have to be aggressive with him.  Why else would you take him back if you aren’t going to start to put him in a position to help you?  Not like he is some really young guy at this point.

[Tony-OH]

Nice to see Pop back on the mound.

In his first outing he was 94-97 with 95 MPH avg with his sinker and 84-85 with his sinker. It took him 21 pitches to get through that first inning.

No data on his outing on the 15th, but I'd say with the way he's throwing, he could very well stick with Florida.

Now, I don't know why Pop was not protected and perhaps it was a gamble by Elias that no teams would take a chance on him because of the lack of anyone seeing him since early 2019. Personally I would have protected Pop over Sulser or Lakins in a heart beat, but again, I don't know all the reasoning. 

If Pop's stays healthy, and his velocity numbers would indicate he is now, he has a much better chance of being a cheap good relief piece who can get groundballs and miss occasional bats in the future than multiple players who were protected by Elias.

If so, then yes, I would agree, this is one of Elias's first roster mistakes when looking at the future.

The only good news in this is that Fangraph's roster resource doesn't have him on their depth chart in the bullpen yet and they're pretty good overall about guessing the depth charts. Saying that, roster resource has Sceroler in the Orioles pen and I'm not buying that.

I hope he finds his way back into the organization, but this does look like an unnecessary risk taken by Elias.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Nice to see Pop back on the mound.

In his first outing he was 94-97 with 95 MPH avg with his sinker and 84-85 with his sinker. It took him 21 pitches to get through that first inning.

No data on his outing on the 15th outing, but I'd say with the way he's throwing, it could very well stick with Florida.

Now, I don't know why Pop was not protected and perhaps it was a gamble by Elias that no teams would take a chance on him because of the lack of anyone seeing him since early 2019. Personally I would have protected Pop over Sulser or Lakins in a heart beat, but again, I don't know all the reasoning. 

If Pop's stays healthy, and his velocity numbers would indicate he is now, he has a much better chance of being a cheap good relief piece who can get groundballs and miss occasional bats in the future than multiple players who were protected by Elias.

If so, then yes, I would agree, this is one of Elias's first roster mistakes when looking at the future.

The only good news in this is that Fangraph's roster resource doesn't have him on their depth chart in the bullpen yet and they're pretty good overall about guessing the depth charts. Saying that, roster resource has Sceroler in the Orioles pen and I'm not buying that.

I hope he finds his way back into the organization, but this does look like an unnecessary risk taken by Elias.

I would have protected him over taking a pair of rule V guys.

[Tony-OH]

16 minutes ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

I feel like he was in Low A forever. Was it due to stuff or mainly injuries? I can’t remember.

I was surprised he spent the whole season in Low-A ball in 2019. He was healthy and pitching well and was already long in the tooth for that level and probably could have been pushed to Frederick halfway through the season. One thought was the Orioles were trying to keep him out of the eyes of teams for the Rule pick and then they could be more aggressive with him in 2020. The fact that he was taken (and returned) this year showed that may not have been the best idea but nobody knew the season would be wiped out in 2020. 

As smart as Elias is, I'm sure he's learning about this 40-man roster and rule 5 protection processes as he moves along. This was a weird year because no one saw much of anyone in 2020, so I think that's why you saw so many Rule 5 draft picks this year and why more than usual number amounts may stick. 

Either way, I'm not sure I would have traded Pop for Sceroler or Wells, even though I like Wells a bit and basically that's what he's done if he loses Pop.

[murph]

22 minutes ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

I feel like he was in Low A forever. Was it due to stuff or mainly injuries? I can’t remember.

Tommy John surgery:

"missing all of 2016 recovering from Tommy John surgery and a slow return"

https://birdswatcher.com/2019/04/13/baltimore-orioles-gray-fenter-arm/

 

 

[Tony-OH]

16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

They have to be aggressive with him.  Why else would you take him back if you aren’t going to start to put him in a position to help you?  Not like he is some really young guy at this point.

Well obviously skipping a level can be tough since there's a reason you typically move a guy a level at a time because there are lessons to be learned by each level of talent. Age vs level is going to be weird this year because of the missed 2020. It will be interesting to see how Elias ends up placing his players this year after the missed 2020 campaign. Does Henderson get pushed aggressively to Frederick after his good showing in the alternate camp last year or does he go to his natural next level in Bowie? The Orioles have a lot of shortstops that will need playing time between Delmarva and Frederick. Henderson, Westburg, Hernaiz, Servideo, and Ortiz all are current shortstops that need playing time there to decide where their future will be.

But, back to Fenter. I think they should move him to the pen and put him at Bowie and see how he looks. Of course I'm saying this based off my looks at him from 2019 and not what he could look like now. For all I know he picked up a pitch. Where players start 2021 in the minors is going to be fascinating.

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Well obviously skipping a level can be tough since there's a reason you typically move a guy a level at a time because there are lessons to be learned by each level of talent. Age vs level is going to be weird this year because of the missed 2020. It will be interesting to see how Elias ends up placing his players this year after the missed 2020 campaign. Does Henderson get pushed aggressively to Frederick after his good showing in the alternate camp last year or does he go to his natural next level in Bowie? The Orioles have a lot of shortstops that will need playing time between Delmarva and Frederick. Henderson, Westburg, Hernaiz, Servideo, and Ortiz all are current shortstops that need playing time there to decide where their future will be.

But, back to Fenter. I think they should move him to the pen and put him at Bowie and see how he looks. Of course I'm saying this based off my looks at him from 2019 and not what he could look like now. For all I know he picked up a pitch. Where players start 2021 in the minors is going to be fascinating.

Do you think that applies so much to guys out of the bullpen?  They go an inning or two at a time and generally only throw two pitches. 

 

 

[Legend_Of_Joey]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Well obviously skipping a level can be tough since there's a reason you typically move a guy a level at a time because there are lessons to be learned by each level of talent. Age vs level is going to be weird this year because of the missed 2020. It will be interesting to see how Elias ends up placing his players this year after the missed 2020 campaign. Does Henderson get pushed aggressively to Frederick after his good showing in the alternate camp last year or does he go to his natural next level in Bowie? The Orioles have a lot of shortstops that will need playing time between Delmarva and Frederick. Henderson, Westburg, Hernaiz, Servideo, and Ortiz all are current shortstops that need playing time there to decide where their future will be.

But, back to Fenter. I think they should move him to the pen and put him at Bowie and see how he looks. Of course I'm saying this based off my looks at him from 2019 and not what he could look like now. For all I know he picked up a pitch. Where players start 2021 in the minors is going to be fascinating.

I’d have some questions if Henderson ends up in Frederick this season. 

I’m curious too how the rosters are set after the missed season. Part of me feels like they might go “conservative” with stuff at first and bump players up semi early (after first month), since conservative seems to be an Elias standard. 

[LookinUp]

 

Oh boy.

 

[Jammer7]

10 minutes ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

I’d have some questions if Henderson ends up in Frederick this season. 

I’m curious too how the rosters are set after the missed season. Part of me feels like they might go “conservative” with stuff at first and bump players up semi early (after first month), since conservative seems to be an Elias standard. 

Generally, I think he will be conservative with the higher end high school guys like Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez, DL Hall, Adam Hall or guys with higher ceilings. I think he’ll be apt to move up college guys like Cadyn Grenier, AJ Graffanino, Terrin Vavra, and some of the college arms from the 2019 draft. Take a little more time for the higher ceiling guys that could really benefit from the more gradual initial progression. Some of the moderate ceiling/moderate floor guys will be pushed up some. 
 

I like the idea of Fenter in the Bowie pen. It should be interesting. 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

Generally, I think he will be conservative with the higher end high school guys like Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez, DL Hall, Adam Hall or guys with higher ceilings. I think he’ll be apt to move up college guys like Cadyn Grenier, AJ Graffanino, Terrin Vavra, and some of the college arms from the 2019 draft. Take a little more time for the higher ceiling guys that could really benefit from the more gradual initial progression. Some of the moderate ceiling/moderate floor guys will be pushed up some. 
 

I like the idea of Fenter in the Bowie pen. It should be interesting. 

Here’s hoping you are wrong about those guys, especially DL Hall.

[Jammer7]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Here’s hoping you are wrong about those guys, especially DL Hall.

Not knowing how they valued his work in Bowie last year, just my guess. Elias has shown to be conservative with his talent. If DL starts in AA, would that be too conservative though? I mean he has no time there yet. I will be disappointed if DL is not in Norfolk by mid July or so. 

[Ripken]

That Pop video hurts.  Really didn't like that decision but I'll hope ME had his reasons.