Elias answers some questions.

[LookinUp]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

But is that someone you pay Arb 3 and 4 prices for?

If you need them for a playoff run, yes.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

If you need them for a playoff run, yes.

Do you think the O's will need him for a playoff run?

 

[Frobby]

22 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

But is that someone you pay Arb 3 and 4 prices for?

I don’t really understand this question.    What is an Arb 3/Arb 4 price for a 3 WAR outfielder?    $7-8 mm in Arb 3/$9-10 mm in Arb 4?  I think whether a team is willing to pay that price depends on the competitive position and needs of the team.   It’s cheaper than finding a player like that on the FA market, and more expensive than paying a guy who is just as good/almost as good who has less than 3 years of service.   So it depends who else is in the organization.   

[Just Regular]

The Arb3/Arb4 forecast is tough to make until we have a view of if something more sensible gets negotiated.   Certainly in today's setup, Santander would probably have that Eddie Rosario curse of "Lots of HR and RBI" to dazzle the arbitrators with their horse blinders, and to nudge clubs to stay out of that room.

Whereas Cedric Mullins....let's go!

[Sports Guy]

44 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

3 WAR or more even, including good OF defense.

He's a good player. Not a super star, but good. The OBP won't allow super star, but the power is valuable and the hit tool is good. 

Well, I don’t think a 3 WAR player is nothing.  That’s a valuable player, especially if they make less than 12M.  However, that’s not some high upside guy either.  That’s a very solid regular but it’s not an irreplaceable player and I don’t think that’s a guy you want to play 15+M a year and you certainly don’t want to pay him anything close to that as he approaches and goes past 30 years old.

Let’s ask this a different way.

Do you want to give him an extension?

[wildcard]

56 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t really understand this question.    What is an Arb 3/Arb 4 price for a 3 WAR outfielder?    $7-8 mm in Arb 3/$9-10 mm in Arb 4?  I think whether a team is willing to pay that price depends on the competitive position and needs of the team.   It’s cheaper than finding a player like that on the FA market, and more expensive than paying a guy who is just as good/almost as good who has less than 3 years of service.   So it depends who else is in the organization.   

Not always.  Tampa is competitive and needs Snell but yet they have him on the market.   He has a 5 year contract but 2021 would be his Arb 2 year.   He will make 10.5M in 2021.  You could say well that is Tampa. They play by different rules. 

I would say Tampa is the O's model.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Not always.  Tampa is competitive and needs Snell but yet they have him on the market.   He has a 5 year contract but 2021 would be his Arb 2 year.   He will make 10.5M in 2021.  You could say well that is Tampa. They play by different rules. 

I would say Tampa is the O's model.

Which is why I don't think they will pay Santander arb 3 or 4 prices.  I think they will try and generate similar value with a less expensive player.

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Which is why I don't think they will pay Santander arb 3 or 4 prices.  I think they will try and generate similar value with a less expensive player.

The model probably says trade him at the deadline in his Arb 3 year.  That is 2023.

[Sports Guy]

29 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Not always.  Tampa is competitive and needs Snell but yet they have him on the market.   He has a 5 year contract but 2021 would be his Arb 2 year.   He will make 10.5M in 2021.  You could say well that is Tampa. They play by different rules. 

I would say Tampa is the O's model.

No they aren’t 

[Roll Tide]

3 hours ago, MCO'sFan said:

Tide... you are nothing if not consistent my friend!

We passed on the better player IMO. Obviously I will admit if I’m wrong. As of now we gifted the Blue Jays

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

We passed on the better player IMO. Obviously I will admit if I’m wrong. As of now we gifted the Blue Jays

In all fairness the end result will also depend on how the two overslot players do. 

[LookinUp]

15 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, I don’t think a 3 WAR player is nothing.  That’s a valuable player, especially if they make less than 12M.  However, that’s not some high upside guy either.  That’s a very solid regular but it’s not an irreplaceable player and I don’t think that’s a guy you want to play 15+M a year and you certainly don’t want to pay him anything close to that as he approaches and goes past 30 years old.

Let’s ask this a different way.

Do you want to give him an extension?

Right now? No. I just want as many assets available for a playoff run as possible, which means I hold him and play the arb game for the time being. 

I don't love the idea of dealing a known for unknowns when the plan is to have a playoff run in the not too distant future, particularly if dealing that known creates a gaping hole in the team that we have to fill from the outside.

I'd trade Santander, but am not in a hurry and only if our outfield situation progresses as we all hope. I just happen to expect several prospect fails along the way. That's not a knock on our guys. It's why I want deep depth in the minors. We don't have that yet, IMO, or if we do I think us smart-casual fans aren't aware yet.

[MCO'sFan]

15 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

We passed on the better player IMO. Obviously I will admit if I’m wrong. As of now we gifted the Blue Jays

That's the beauty of baseball. We'll have this discussion for years until it's clear which way it falls. I don't know much about Kjerstad other than a few games I saw on TV. There are a few folks that I trust who say he is the real deal. We will see. IMHO Martin was over-hyped based on Vandy and his offense his Sophomore year. IMHO he will not stick in the dirt and will be an average CF. He may even end up in LF. If his hit tool slides then he will not be elite. Time well tell.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

Right now? No. I just want as many assets available for a playoff run as possible, which means I hold him and play the arb game for the time being. 

I don't love the idea of dealing a known for unknowns when the plan is to have a playoff run in the not too distant future, particularly if dealing that known creates a gaping hole in the team that we have to fill from the outside.

I'd trade Santander, but am not in a hurry and only if our outfield situation progresses as we all hope. I just happen to expect several prospect fails along the way. That's not a knock on our guys. It's why I want deep depth in the minors. We don't have that yet, IMO, or if we do I think us smart-casual fans aren't aware yet.

First of all, how is Santander a “known”. I don’t think we know much.

I don’t see how trading him would be end up being a gaping hole.  He is a 2ish WAR guy.  

[LookinUp]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

First of all, how is Santander a “known”. I don’t think we know much.

I don’t see how trading him would be end up being a gaping hole.  He is a 2ish WAR guy.  

The problem I have with your perspective in all of these trade discussions is you operate with the assumption that we will get a good deal. A lot of us don't differ on whether we'd trade a guy in the right deal. We differ because we don't think there's a million good deals just waiting for us.

I don't want to trade a 2ish WAR guy (with 3-4 WAR upside) for the deal I think we could get. I don't want to do that because I don't have confidence that Hays, Mullins, Stewart, Diaz and Mountcastle comprise a good outfield moving forward. I have confidence in 1.5 of those guys, and at least 1 of them probably fits better at DH/1B. I have no idea when Kjerstad will be in Baltimore. I expect we need a good player in RF/LF for 2022/2023 and I think Santander fits the profile.

Now, if the facts change, and they may by this trade deadline (Kjerstad looks a stud, Diaz too), then I'm more than willing to update my thinking. In that case I'd trade Santander for something in between a Bundy and Iglesias return.