Trade Bait 2021

[interloper]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s important now because more pitchers are doing it and the game is trending too far in the direction of strikeouts.    If stricter enforcement helps with that problem, then I’m all for it.  

Same. I'm also for the upcoming limits to number of pitchers on the roster. These are sensible ways to combat the strikeouts without resorting to new gimmicky rules. 

[ScGO's]

On 5/8/2021 at 9:28 AM, ScGO's said:

Now that we are a little over a month into the season, the potential trade scene is starting to take shape.  Below are the names that have or still have the potential to create value for themselves.

Approaching Peak Value

Trey Mancini - Bat is starting to heat up.  Should be over the .800 OPS mark soon. With only one more season of control after this one, I don't think Elias will want to pay the arbitration price tag on Mancini's final year.  With a year and a half of control left, now is the time to make a move.

John Means - I almost wonder if Elias should entertain an extension.  Means still has less than 250 IP in his career, so even though he is 28, his arm may still have a long career in store.  I would sit back and wait to be blown away by an offer if I do choose to trade him.

Cesar Valdez- Has to be an definite trade candidate.  This is a gift to the O's as he is a 36 year old cast off that has started to make a name for himself.  He has a few years of control left, but with his age and lack of a track record, now is the time to send him out for a prospect or two.

Freddy Galvis - A SS with an over .800?  Someone will look to upgrade if he can sustain this offensive performance, and we might be able to snag a decent prospect.  Even if he sinks back closer to .700, we still might be able to swing him, although the return will probably not be that great.

Matt Harvey - Would like to see him get into the 6th inning more, but as of now, he is our #2 and he could be a great back end option for a playoff team if he stays around 4.00 ERA.  I think his name recognition could put him a tick higher on some teams' radars too.

Tanner Scott - Goes into arbitration next season.  Has the best stuff of all our relievers although he has his wild moments still.  If he stays steady, we should be able to get a better package than what we got for Castro and Givens.

Paul Fry - 28 Years old, arbitration eligible next season.  K rate is awesome right now.  If he keeps this up, someone will want this lefty out of their pen

Cole Sulser - 31 years old, K rate is great. Couldn't sustain the success last year at this point; this is his 2nd chance.  If he succeeds, I see him being moved.

Needs to Build Value

Anthony Santandar - Has to stay healthy.  Hopefully he is back soon and can rake till July.  If not, we will have this conversation against next season.

Shawn Armstrong - I still feel like he has the "stuff," but he has to turn it around quickly or he will be cut.  If he can find consistency, I think he can still create value on the trade market.

Makiel Franco - Slumping after a so-so start.  The hope is that he can get up towards an .800 OPS and we can swing him.  We will know more about his fate by the middle of June.

Pedro Severino - No value as of now, but hopefully he runs into one of his hot streaks and can get that OPS back up near .750.  That plus marketing him as a great game caller following the Means no-hitter might help us get a C- prospect in return.  Cisco has no value right now, so a lot of this depends on Adley being ready.  If he isn't Pedro probably stays the whole season, especially if he doesn't hit.

Pat Valaika- Ruiz and Urias continue to scuffle with the bat.  Looks like Valaika is next up to get the bulk of ABs at 2B.  He is heating up already.  I still think he could have some value as a .750-.800 OPS utility player on a playoff team, especially in the NL.

Monthly Update

As we head towards the middle of June, the O's trade bait picture is becoming a little clear, and the list a little shorter

Big Chips

1) John Means - The trip to the IL is a speed bump, but if he returns strong, the O's should continue to listen to offers. Elias and co. need to also weigh the benefits of an extension as well.  But if you can get multiple top 100 prospects back, do you make this deal?

2) Trey Mancini - RBI machine hopefully continues to see OPS climb towards .900.  This trade deadline is also starting to look like his peak value; I think he returns a Top 100 prospect. Mountcastle sliding to 1B will help long term as well.

3) Cedric Mullins - No rush to trade, but also worth listening to offers if someone is willing to overpay.

4) Anthony Santander - Hopefully numbers improve as he is now healthy.  Teams may be reluctant to trade for him if he doesn't improve onbase skills or stay off the IL. He has shown a lot of physicality over the last 3 seasons that teams seem to like though. If he goes on a tear before the deadline, I could see someone over paying for him.

Smaller Deals

5) Tanner Scott - Power arm, still needs to find control. I could see a similar trade that we saw for Castro or Givens. His value could sky rocket if he figures it out though. I guess that's the gamble Elias has to take in trading now or later on Scott.

6) Cole Sulser - Unique stuff as he gets lefties out.  I think that makes him more valuable than we think, especially with the new rule to face a min of 3 batters.

7) Paul Fry - He's been pretty good for about 4 seasons now and he seems to have figured something out as his K's per 9 is up to 13.1. Again, a Givens/Castro type deal makes sense here.

8 ) Freddy Galvis - Middle infield depth for a playoff bound team that is unhappy with their 2B or SS options?  If he can stay around .780 OPS, I could see a small deal made similar to a Cashner return.

And that's all she wrote I believe as the bubbles on Armstrong, Harvey, and Valdez have all seemed to have burst.  Maybe Franco catches fire in the next month or so, but that's it.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, ScGO's said:

Monthly Update

As we head towards the middle of June, the O's trade bait picture is becoming a little clear, and the list a little shorter

Big Chips

1) John Means - The trip to the IL is a speed bump, but if he returns strong, the O's should continue to listen to offers. Elias and co. need to also weigh the benefits of an extension as well.  But if you can get multiple top 100 prospects back, do you make this deal?

2) Trey Mancini - RBI machine hopefully continues to see OPS climb towards .900.  This trade deadline is also starting to look like his peak value; I think he returns a Top 100 prospect. Mountcastle sliding to 1B will help long term as well.

3) Cedric Mullins - No rush to trade, but also worth listening to offers if someone is willing to overpay.

4) Anthony Santander - Hopefully numbers improve as he is now healthy.  Teams may be reluctant to trade for him if he doesn't improve onbase skills or stay off the IL. He has shown a lot of physicality over the last 3 seasons that teams seem to like though. If he goes on a tear before the deadline, I could see someone over paying for him.

Smaller Deals

5) Tanner Scott - Power arm, still needs to find control. I could see a similar trade that we saw for Castro or Givens. His value could sky rocket if he figures it out though. I guess that's the gamble Elias has to take in trading now or later on Scott.

6) Cole Sulser - Unique stuff as he gets lefties out.  I think that makes him more valuable than we think, especially with the new rule to face a min of 3 batters.

7) Paul Fry - He's been pretty good for about 4 seasons now and he seems to have figured something out as his K's per 9 is up to 13.1. Again, a Givens/Castro type deal makes sense here.

8 ) Freddy Galvis - Middle infield depth for a playoff bound team that is unhappy with their 2B or SS options?  If he can stay around .780 OPS, I could see a small deal made similar to a Cashner return.

And that's all she wrote I believe as the bubbles on Armstrong, Harvey, and Valdez have all seemed to have burst.  Maybe Franco catches fire in the next month or so, but that's it.

The only player here that I think might be traded in Mancini if the O's feel he will not agree to a sensible extension.      That said I think it was David Samson that said the deadline is a better time to trade pitchers.  Position players are better traded in the off season.

[Camden_yardbird]

17 hours ago, rm5678 said:

Well, it appears the umpires took Jorge Lopez's cap today after the 1st inning, according to what I was reading on another blog. MASN announcers never mentioned it, but apparently the Indians announcers did.

Haha.  Lopez throws a sinker (3rd percentile - low) in spin rate.  I suppose he could be using a substance to decrease spin but I highly doubt it.

[Ruzious]

I'd like to know who among Santander, Hays, Diaz, and Kjerstad will be healthy and reliable.  What a boost it could be if all of them do.  

[foxfield]

15 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

I'd like to know who among Santander, Hays, Diaz, and Kjerstad will be healthy and reliable.  What a boost it could be if all of them do.  

No doubt. It is certainly possible. 

[rm5678]

23 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Will be curious to see how many other pitchers start looking mediocre with MLB now implementing a plan to monitor pitchers use of foreign substances. 

 

 

Josh Donaldson asked publicly the other day if it's a coincidence that Gerrit Cole's spin rate went down significantly in his last start, which was right after 4 minor leaguer pitchers were suspended for using foreign substances. Donaldson seems to think it's not a coincidence. Cole will be pitching against Donaldson and the Twins on Wednesday, which will be very interesting.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

17 minutes ago, rm5678 said:

Josh Donaldson asked publicly the other day if it's a coincidence that Gerrit Cole's spin rate went down significantly in his last start, which was right after 4 minor leaguer pitchers were suspended for using foreign substances. Donaldson seems to think it's not a coincidence. Cole will be pitching against Donaldson and the Twins on Wednesday, which will be very interesting.

There's a reason for that, Josh Donaldson claims he has video evidence of pitchers cheating and that he's going to release it.

I also pasted a link to a video that provides excellent analysis and background on this pitchers cheating scandal. Talks about Trevor Bauer heavily, gets into pitcher spin rates increasing and touches on Josh Donaldson too. It's a 22 minute video, but is definitely worth a watch. 

 

[Can_of_corn]

It's steroids and trash cans all over again.

Guys cheat in baseball for decades.  No one cares.

Guys get too good at cheating at baseball.  Everyone thinks it's the worst thing ever.

 

Basically as long as you don't get too big an advantage by cheating it's quaint.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

It's steroids and trash cans all over again.

Guys cheat in baseball for decades.  No one cares.

Guys get too good at cheating at baseball.  Everyone thinks it's the worst thing ever.

 

Basically as long as you don't get too big an advantage by cheating it's quaint.

Yeah the historic low in batting averages is finally getting baseball to act even though they knew this was happening all along.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Yeah the historic low in batting averages is finally getting baseball to act even though they knew this was happening all along.

Which is funny since them juicing the ball accelerated the advance of 3TO approach we are seeing today.

Juiced balls lead to more players trying to hit for power and pitchers trying to avoid contact.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Which is funny since them juicing the ball accelerated the advance of 3TO approach we are seeing today.

Juiced balls lead to more players trying to hit for power and pitchers trying to avoid contact.

 

[Aristotelian]

Means to IL. Too much upside to trade, too much risk to trade for. I think he was unlikely to be traded before, and now is off the list. 

The more Mullins has success, the more difficult he is for the O's to trade. Honestly if you are including Mullins as "trade bait" then you might as well include Mountcastle and Hays. 

IMO, Mancini is the only "big chip" on the list who actually has some likelihood of being traded. Maybe Santander could be a medium chip if he gets hot. 

Fry, Scott, and Sulser are still cheap. I don't see the O's trading them. 

Not sure if the smaller deals category is ranked but I would put Galvis at the top in terms of likelihood. He has the right combination of value to others teams and expendability to the O's. 

Lopez might be on the bubble. 

[wildcard]

12 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Means to IL. Too much upside to trade, too much risk to trade for. I think he was unlikely to be traded before, and now is off the list. 

The more Mullins has success, the more difficult he is for the O's to trade. Honestly if you are including Mullins as "trade bait" then you might as well include Mountcastle and Hays. 

IMO, Mancini is the only "big chip" on the list who actually has some likelihood of being traded. Maybe Santander could be a medium chip if he gets hot. 

Fry, Scott, and Sulser are still cheap. I don't see the O's trading them. 

Not sure if the smaller deals category is ranked but I would put Galvis at the top in terms of likelihood. He has the right combination of value to others teams and expendability to the O's. 

Lopez might be on the bubble. 

I agree that the O's are willing to trade Galvis but will anyone offer any for him?   He moved from the Blue Jay to the Reds for nothing in 2019.    IMO Mancini is a contract issue.   I think the O's would extend him for 2 years plus a option if he and his agent would accept that.  But will they? If not then the O's may be force to trade him at the deadline or over the winter.

Other than that I don't see much movement.  The O's would trade Severino because he is a non tender candidate but I don't  think anyone wants him.  Franco, Valaika, Matt Harvey, there is probably no interest from other teams. 

I don't see the O's trading Santander or Mullins at the deadline this season.

[Sports Guy]

21 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Means to IL. Too much upside to trade, too much risk to trade for. I think he was unlikely to be traded before, and now is off the list. 

The more Mullins has success, the more difficult he is for the O's to trade. Honestly if you are including Mullins as "trade bait" then you might as well include Mountcastle and Hays. 

IMO, Mancini is the only "big chip" on the list who actually has some likelihood of being traded. Maybe Santander could be a medium chip if he gets hot. 

Fry, Scott, and Sulser are still cheap. I don't see the O's trading them. 

Not sure if the smaller deals category is ranked but I would put Galvis at the top in terms of likelihood. He has the right combination of value to others teams and expendability to the O's. 

Lopez might be on the bubble. 

The injury to Means isn’t stopping anything unless it’s worse than we think or longer than we think.

If he comes back in 2-3 weeks, that’s plenty of time for him to pitch prior to the deadline.

Where I do think there is a potential issue is, will teams be willing to move as much to get him with this history of shoulder fatigue?  There is nothing structurally wrong with his shoulder and this year, stuff like this is explainable.