Tex or AJ

[tywright]

Tex is the prize...and AJ is icing on the cake.

[geschinger]

BTW, let's not overlook the idea of Tex's defense and how a top defensive first baseman is so important to the IF defense.

I think that aspect of his game gets overlooked because of his offensive numbers.

And another thing that i am not sure has been brought up is his durability...he had an injury in 2007 but other than that, he has basically played every game.

You really think so? I'm not sure those willing to go $20m or more would be willing to do that for a DH or below avg defender. I think that is part of the reason (besides the obvious Maryland premium) people are advocating going so much higher to sign him than with other players.

[DrungoHazewood]

Teixiera, and its not close. Burnett will be paid like he's going to give you five years of 35 starts and 220 innings. His history suggests that he'll give you an average of 25 starts and 150 innings a year spread inconsistently over the next five years. Some years he might give you 220 innings of a 115 ERA+, some years he might give you 100 innings of an 90 or so.

Pretty much every year Teixiera gives you 140+ games of a 125-150 OPS+.

[Sports Guy]

Tex is the prize...and AJ is icing on the cake.

This is a good way of stating things.

You really think so? I'm not sure those willing to go $20m or more would be willing to do that for a DH or below avg defender. I think that is part of the reason (besides the obvious Maryland premium) people are advocating going so much higher to sign him than with other players.

I think people zero in on his offense much more...The idea of him being a GGer seems to be an after thought at times.

[geschinger]

Pretty much every year Teixiera gives you 140+ games of a 125-150 OPS+.

If we signed him to say a eight year deal, if you were asked what to expect, how many of those years would you be comfortable penciling in at a 125-150 OPS+?

[tywright]

I think people zero in on his offense much more...The idea of him being a GGer seems to be an after thought at times.

Yeah Tex's D is being overlooked. In the 9th in game 4 he made that diving catch to save a run (even though the next AB scored the run). I doubt we see Millar display that quick of a glove and good footwork.

[geschinger]

This is a good way of stating things.

I think people zero in on his offense much more...The idea of him being a GGer seems to be an after thought at times.

You might be right, it may just be the opposite phenomenen... I.e. while Tex is a better offensive player than Dunn but the gap is not large at all yet the amount people think Tex is worth is astronomically more than what they think Dunn is worth. I have been assuming it's the MD premium & quality excellent defense that explains the difference. But maybe it's the opposite and Dunn is being undervalued due to his defense deficienes.

[tywright]

If we signed him to say a eight year deal, if you were asked what to expect, how many of those years would you be comfortable penciling in at a 125-150 OPS+?

I'd think he could post another 4-5 years of that easily. He only be 29 at the start of this year and I don't expect a decline until after 32/33.

[Dipper9]

Yeah Tex's D is being overlooked. In the 9th in game 4 he made that diving catch to save a run (even though the next AB scored the run). I doubt we see Millar display that quick of a glove and good footwork.

Oh please. Millar is a 36 year old guy at the end of his career. Of course he cannot match Tex's performance. But Millar is under appreciated for his glove. He saved many, MANY errors on our infielders this year. That said, Tex would save even more!

[Sports Guy]

You might be right, it may just be the opposite phenomenen... I.e. while Tex is a better offensive player than Dunn but the gap is not large at all yet the amount people think Tex is worth is astronomically more than what they think Dunn is worth. I have been assuming it's the MD premium & quality excellent defense that explains the difference. But maybe it's the opposite and Dunn is being undervalued due to his defense deficienes.

I think it is both to be honest.

Dunn is undervalued IMO but I think Tex is the better buy because the BMore stuff and his defense.

Really, dealing Huff for Wood and signing Dunn instead of AJ(along with Tex) would be my preferred way of doing things.

[DrungoHazewood]

If we signed him to say a eight year deal, if you were asked what to expect, how many of those years would you be comfortable penciling in at a 125-150 OPS+?

I think its reasonable to expect a .275/.375/.500 line out of him through at least his age 35 season. That's something like a 120-125 OPS+. So I guess that would be seven years?

[TyCobb]

I think its reasonable to expect a .275/.375/.500 line out of him through at least his age 35 season. That's something like a 120-125 OPS+. So I guess that would be seven years?

Is that going to be worth 7-9 years for / 20 million a year.

[YardBirds13]

Tex, hands down.

Look, I know our pitching was pathetic last year, but we have soem studs coming up through the system. If those guys (Tillman, Matusz, Arrieta, etc.) don't pan out, we are screwed even if we have Burnett. Basically, we are riding on the hopes that a couple of those guys (along with Spoone, Patton, Erbe, Hernandez, Bergeson, etc) turn into quality starters.

Next year, we need Burnett more.

For the next 4-8? Teixeira by a landslide.

[PlumOriole]

Long term it's Tex and it's not close for me. I would think they can afford both in the budget as SG stated. But if only one, it should be Tex.

I have to say, after watching teams like the Dodgers and Rays with all the youth they have up in the Majors it makes me think we are farther away than we thought. I know it's been 11 years but I'm starting to think we need to build things up not go with big free agents for another year or two. We've only been doing things things the right way recenlty. We need a couple more years of solid drafts and hits on international scouting to be at the level of LAD, Rays and Sox talent and depth wise. The problem is a Tex doesn't come around very often. So if you have a chance to get an impact bat like that I think go get him now but I may hold off on FA pitchers with a multiple year contact.

[DrungoHazewood]

You might be right, it may just be the opposite phenomenen... I.e. while Tex is a better offensive player than Dunn but the gap is not large at all yet the amount people think Tex is worth is astronomically more than what they think Dunn is worth. I have been assuming it's the MD premium & quality excellent defense that explains the difference. But maybe it's the opposite and Dunn is being undervalued due to his defense deficienes.

Defensively Teixeira has been somewhere between a little above average (2006-07) to spectacular (2008 he's the MLB leader in +/- at first). Dunn has been abysmal everywhere he's played. Conservatively Teixeria is 15-20 runs a year better than Dunn on defense. That's 1.5 to two wins.

Offensively, over their whole careers, Teixeira is about five runs better than Dunn per 600 PA. So overall Teixeira is somewhere between 2.0 and 2.5 wins per year better than Dunn. Given a going rate for a win in free agency being somewhere around $2M, Teixiera should be worth about $5M a year more than Dunn.

And that's without considering that players of Teixiera's mold probably age better than those of Dunn's.