MLB.com: O’s farm system is the 4th-most improved

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Just don’t keep players past 30 years old.  There will be exceptions to that rule but for the most part, that’s a pretty simple way to look at it. More often than not, you won’t regret the decision.

Snell's 28.

That's a solid enough guideline when it comes to extending guys but it doesn't work as well when talking about trading assets at peak value.

[Sports Guy]

You also have to take emotion out of it.

I still contend the biggest mistake the Os have done in recent memory is not trading Manny, Britton and Brach after 2016.  They fooled themselves into thinking they could make another playoff run but it was always a dumb thought process.  They didn’t likely want to upset fans either but at the end of the day, so what?  You need to build a sustained winner and sometimes you have to see that you just aren’t good enough, especially relative to the competition.

Thats something I really like about Elias so far..he seems to take emotion out of things.  It’s all business and that’s how it should be.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Snell's 28.

That's a solid enough guideline when it comes to extending guys but it doesn't work as well when talking about trading assets at peak value.

Well, I don’t necessarily agree with them trading Snell, although the return was pretty damn good and they may not take much of a step back and it may make them better long term.

[jabba72]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You also have to take emotion out of it.

I still contend the biggest mistake the Os have done in recent memory is not trading Manny, Britton and Brach after 2016.  They fooled themselves into thinking they could make another playoff run but it was always a dumb thought process.  They didn’t likely want to upset fans either but at the end of the day, so what?  You need to build a sustained winner and sometimes you have to see that you just aren’t good enough, especially relative to the competition.

Thats something I really like about Elias so far..he seems to take emotion out of things.  It’s all business and that’s how it should be.

Buck was still here, so that was never going to happen but I agree they would have gotten much bigger returns for Britton and Manny.

[HowAboutThat]

19 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I admire how Tampa does this, but it’s not as simple as you make it out to be.    You have to be a very good judge of when your player has reached his peak value, and which young players from other organizations will pan out to be good major league players.    And, if you have a contending team, trading a top player is likely to make your team worse in the short run.   Fans don’t like getting the rug pulled out from them when they have a contending team, nor do they like losing players who have produced for their team.   So, if you do this, you’d better be right in your player judgments more often than you’re wrong.   Tampa has certainly done that for the most part.   

Oh yes, there is a dice roll element to every strategy, and there are certainly mistakes to be made, but the guys who work for the Rays are not on loan from God. They are not doing anything we cannot do.

The timing issue is less significant than you imply. A top player has a large window of value, and if the Rays had waited a bit to trade Snell, the return wouldn’t have been less, unless he completely fell off a cliff in the next half-season.

And there are of course exceptions to every rule except “no expensive FAs” which I think is inviolate.

I would not have traded Snell yet, for instance, unless I had an outstanding prospect behind him. I’m not sure that Tampa is still the favorite for the East this year, and even less so if they trade Keiermeier. Toronto might be.

However, it is excellent strategy at this time to trade present value for future value, because it is so unlikely that we will have a normal season. So trading for a package of guys who won’t be ready for 3 years might be better than keeping a guy who is at his peak now, because that peak might be wasted.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

Buck was still here, so that was never going to happen but I agree they would have gotten much bigger returns for Britton and Manny.

If Buck didn’t like, he could go too.

Buck was great for this organization in many ways but his days were also numbered at that point, especially after his moronic Britton/Ubaldo decision.  
 

The long term good of the franchise was more important than pacifying Showalter but PA can’t see the forest through the trees and he allowed Buck to manipulate his decision making.

[DrungoHazewood]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

You also have to take emotion out of it.

I still contend the biggest mistake the Os have done in recent memory is not trading Manny, Britton and Brach after 2016.  They fooled themselves into thinking they could make another playoff run but it was always a dumb thought process.  They didn’t likely want to upset fans either but at the end of the day, so what?  You need to build a sustained winner and sometimes you have to see that you just aren’t good enough, especially relative to the competition.

Thats something I really like about Elias so far..he seems to take emotion out of things.  It’s all business and that’s how it should be.

It is not easy to trade the guys who you developed and became fan favorites and key members of good teams.  Everyone hates that.  Even the GM doing it hates it.  When they let Markakis go probably 75% of Orioles Hangout thought it was a terrible idea, and it just kept getting terrible-er every time someone played the outfield in Baltimore who wasn't great.  Frobby still hates it even thought it made financial and on-field sense.  Letting Nelson Cruz walk was a very Rays kind of decision, and to this day probably 90% of the board thinks that was a tragic mistake.

Yes, you have to set emotion aside when you're in the Orioles' position.  But it will always be controversial and if it doesn't work out (which it won't some of the time) the fans and the press will crucify you.

[Sports Guy]

20 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

It is not easy to trade the guys who you developed and became fan favorites and key members of good teams.  Everyone hates that.  Even the GM doing it hates it.  When they let Markakis go probably 75% of Orioles Hangout thought it was a terrible idea, and it just kept getting terrible-er every time someone played the outfield in Baltimore who wasn't great.  Frobby still hates it even thought it made financial and on-field sense.  Letting Nelson Cruz walk was a very Rays kind of decision, and to this day probably 90% of the board thinks that was a tragic mistake.

Yes, you have to set emotion aside when you're in the Orioles' position.  But it will always be controversial and if it doesn't work out (which it won't some of the time) the fans and the press will crucify you.

All of this is true...but none of it is reason to not do the smart thing.  
 

A lot of times, the correct move will be seen as the wrong move, especially when emotion is involved.  Like I said, I do think their are exceptions but the exceptions are few and far between.

[hoosiers]

7 hours ago, Philip said:

It is such a simple process and so easy to implement I don’t understand why teams don’t do it. Trade your guy at peak value. Don’t sign extensions, don’t sign expensive free agents: trade your present value For future value. Repeat as necessary.

 

It is not easy.  I have posted many times since the Bedard trade that folks here loved the trade, but wouldn't do it again.  What Tampa has created is multi-faceted (as I posted above):

 - depth - makes it easier to make a trade when there is a quality player waiting to be next man up.

 - reputation for trading - you like someone on Tampa, well, call them up.  Tampa will deal with you, but be prepared to overpay.

 - a very strong analytics and scout team that can spot under-valued players who can be corrected to be better in other organizations.

 - an understanding that 80% of their better players can't be afforded and must be traded near peak value - usually after year 2 and before year 5 of a player's pre-FA status.

Tampa has also arrived at this point by establishing quality major leaguers with upside at the major league minimum up and down their lineup and rotation.  

Wait until our young guys come up, we increase wins from 66 in 2021 to 74 in 2022 and 86 in 2023 (including a near playoff team) and then deciding that the best way forward is to deal all-star catcher Adley Rutschmann for a massive haul of prospects!  "Simple process" you say!  Convince your owner and fan base that dealing AR makes you a better organization LT!

[Sports Guy]

Who wouldn’t do the Bedard trade again?  

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Who wouldn’t do the Bedard trade again?  

Seattle.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Seattle.

Exactly..Hoosiers said some on here liked the trade but wouldn’t do it again?  
 

[jabba72]

Bedard was awful after that trade. Kind of felt bad for Seattle that they didnt really get one good year out of him. 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

Bedard was awful after that trade. Kind of felt bad for Seattle that they didnt really get one good year out of him. 

Yea and of course, we got what we did out of Jones and Tillman.  Who possibly regrets that move?  

[HowAboutThat]

2 hours ago, hoosiers said:

It is not easy.  I have posted many times since the Bedard trade that folks here loved the trade, but wouldn't do it again.  What Tampa has created is multi-faceted (as I posted above):

 - depth - makes it easier to make a trade when there is a quality player waiting to be next man up.

 - reputation for trading - you like someone on Tampa, well, call them up.  Tampa will deal with you, but be prepared to overpay.

 - a very strong analytics and scout team that can spot under-valued players who can be corrected to be better in other organizations.

 - an understanding that 80% of their better players can't be afforded and must be traded near peak value - usually after year 2 and before year 5 of a player's pre-FA status.

Tampa has also arrived at this point by establishing quality major leaguers with upside at the major league minimum up and down their lineup and rotation.  

Wait until our young guys come up, we increase wins from 66 in 2021 to 74 in 2022 and 86 in 2023 (including a near playoff team) and then deciding that the best way forward is to deal all-star catcher Adley Rutschmann for a massive haul of prospects!  "Simple process" you say!  Convince your owner and fan base that dealing AR makes you a better organization LT!

Of course. You didn’t say anything controversial, nor anything that was in conflict with what I said.

Every point you listed is something we are developing ourselves. I don’t know what kind of trading reputation Elias is acquiring, but I’m pretty sure at the moment, other teams are aware of his “type,” although that should change as the development continues.

Regarding your last paragraph, I’ll remind you that there are unique elements consider in every case. Yes I’d be happy dealing AR at peak value( What could the angels have gotten for Trout? And yet they gave him 300 million  or whatever, and the team remains mediocre) and I’d have traded Manny a year earlier. Remember that no one player is more important than the team. I loved AJ, and so did you,but he’s gone, and the team goes on. I loved Hardy, Wieters not so much, loved Tillman and so on, but they all leave and the team goes on. It will be the same with AR. The days of a career with one team are very long gone.
The Rays traded Snell. I’m neutral on the return, but the Rays feel the return was worth the trade, and they have a history of being right.

It will be interesting to see which team is favored in the east. I’m kind of leaning Toronto at the moment, but if not them, Tampa, and I expect them to see October yet again.