Comparing the AL East Farm Systems - Fangraphs’ Take So Far

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Would you rather have the Tampa farm system or the Yankees bank account?

Bank accounts are forever.   Farm system rankings come and go.   That said, Tampa is in a nice spot with a very good current team and a lot of talent on the way.  They should be a contender for the foreseeable future.   

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Bank accounts are forever.   Farm system rankings come and go.   That said, Tampa is in a nice spot with a very good current team and a lot of talent on the way.  They should be a contender for the foreseeable future.   

A farm system like this one coupled with their intelligence could last this team for years and years..it leads to deals that lead to more  deals, etc...

Money gives you more margin for error but usually spending money leads to mistakes.

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

A farm system like this one coupled with their intelligence could last this team for years and years..it leads to deals that lead to more  deals, etc...

Money gives you more margin for error but usually spending money leads to mistakes.

Assuming a team with money doesn't hire their brain trust away again.

[Sports Guy]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Assuming a team with money doesn't hire their brain trust away again.

And how much has that hurt them?

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And how much has that hurt them?

Didn't they have a downturn that coincided with the first exodus?  With those leaving getting rings while the Rays don't have one?

[Frobby]

20 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Didn't they have a downturn that coincided with the first exodus?  With those leaving getting rings while the Rays don't have one?

They already were in the downturn (77-85) when Friedman and Maddon departed.    

[Sports Guy]

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

They already were in the downturn (77-85) when Friedman and Maddon departed.    

And they recovered pretty quickly.

 

[Frobby]

On 3/7/2021 at 4:19 PM, Frobby said:

Overall, Fangraphs has evaluated 12 farm systems so far, and the Orioles rank 5th in that group:

TBR $558 mm (62 players)

MIN $314.5 mm (39)

PIT $263.5 mm (51)

CWS $232 mm (34)

BAL $230.5 mm (45)

If Akin (45 FV P = $4 mm) is added in, we squeak past the White Sox.   

Still watching the Fangraphs evaluations roll in.   Right now the O’s rank 8th of 18, with Detroit ($360 mm, 42 players), Arizona ($300 mm, 46 players) and Atlanta ($256.5 mm, 30 players) ranked ahead of us in addition to the ones listed above.   Among the 12 teams still to be evaluated, there are three that were ahead of us last year (San Diego, Seattle and Miami) and I’m guessing they will remain ahead of us.    So, we could end up ranked about 11th.   Decent but not as high as other rankings.   

One thing about Fangraphs is they weight the top end talent extremely highly.   That’s how a system like Atlanta’s that has only 30 prospects ranked 35+ or higher beats our system which has 45 such prospects.    

[Frobby]

Fangraphs finally finished its farm system evaluations this week.   As a reminder, they place a value on each tier — e.g., a FV 65 position player (Rutschman) is worth $62 mm, a 55 FV pitcher (Rodriguez) is worth $34 mm, etc.   The values at the top of the scale are many multiples of those at the bottom, where a 35+ FV player is worth $500 k.

Using this system, the Orioles come in 11th of 30, at $230.5 mm, just below the White Sox ($232 mm) and above the Royals ($230 mm).    You could say the rankings break into tiers:

$500 mm+ TBR

$300 - $360 mm DET, MIA, MIN, ARI

$250 - $275 mm SEA, PIT, ATL

$200 -$249 mm SDP, CWS, BAL, KCR, TOR, STL

$150 - $199 mm SFG, NYM, CLE, CIN, CHC, TEX, LAD, NYY, PHI, MIL, LAA

Under $150 mm BOS, HOU, OAK, COL, WAS

So, we are solidly above average but not really elite.   

These rankings are already somewhat out of date because of how long Fangraphs takes to do them.   For example our list includes Mountcastle, Akin, Kremer and still counts Kjerstad as a 50 FV hitter.   
 

[Can_of_corn]

Can't get that excited about an 11th place finish, particularly one that doesn't factor in Kjerstad's illness.  On the bright side the Rays' juggernaut of a ranking includes Wander who will graduate off these lists shortly.

[Aglets]

Kinda nice to see WAS, BOS, and HOU at the bottom of the list.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Can't get that excited about an 11th place finish, particularly one that doesn't factor in Kjerstad's illness.  On the bright side the Rays' juggernaut of a ranking includes Wander who will graduate off these lists shortly.

I’m not excited by it either.   This is where our past disregard of the international market is still dogging us.   In a year or two we’ll start seeing more Latino names hitting these lists.  

[vab]

Gotta walk before you run. It takes a long time to get a farm system going. This is a lot of progress. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

34 minutes ago, vab said:

Gotta walk before you run. It takes a long time to get a farm system going. This is a lot of progress. 

Especially considering the lack of international scouting & player development before Elias. 

[now]

9 hours ago, Frobby said:

Fangraphs finally finished its farm system evaluations this week.   As a reminder, they place a value on each tier — e.g., a FV 65 position player (Rutschman) is worth $62 mm, a 55 FV pitcher (Rodriguez) is worth $34 mm, etc.   The values at the top of the scale are many multiples of those at the bottom, where a 35+ FV player is worth $500 k.

Using this system, the Orioles come in 11th of 30, at $230.5 mm, just below the White Sox ($232 mm) and above the Royals ($230 mm).    You could say the rankings break into tiers:

$500 mm+ TBR

$300 - $360 mm DET, MIA, MIN, ARI

$250 - $275 mm SEA, PIT, ATL

$200 -$249 mm SDP, CWS, BAL, KCR, TOR, STL

$150 - $199 mm SFG, NYM, CLE, CIN, CHC, TEX, LAD, NYY, PHI, MIL, LAA

Under $150 mm BOS, HOU, OAK, COL, WAS

So, we are solidly above average but not really elite.   

These rankings are already somewhat out of date because of how long Fangraphs takes to do them.   For example our list includes Mountcastle, Akin, Kremer and still counts Kjerstad as a 50 FV hitter.   
 

Interesting to see this approach. I'm impressed by the use of a single number (FV) to compare all players, and intrigued at attaching a dollar figure to that. It offers a window to future budget expectations (though as in the case of Kjerstad, big assumptions can skew the picture considerably when they pan out differently).