Felix Hernandez signs with O’s

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

You'd have to think that if his arm was truly alive again, he'd have showcased that and would have more suitors than the O's. I feel like this is truly a signing based on intangibles and the long odds that 3 good months nets us a prospect in July.

That is definitely the thinking. And it's really not bad thinking. Look at what we got back for Tommy Milone and Bleier. 

[interloper]

There's literally no downside.

[CarrRun49]

8 hours ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

There was a time when I would have never thought I would be this ambivalent about the O's signing King Felix, and yet here we are.

But hey, maybe his ST with Atlanta last year wasn't a complete mirage and he eats some innings for us and we can flip him for a lottery ticket at the deadline.

Welcome aboard, Felix.

You mean, one of those 16 yr old DSL players that you pickup at the McD's drive through, that everyone wants in every trade?

[Philip]

10 hours ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Crazy idea, but perhaps some of these guys just love playing baseball. Sometimes when your identity is being a baseball player, it feels crazy to voluntarily walk away. 

Understood but my point remains valid 

[TommyPickles]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

People keep saying this.

Does he have a reputation as a clubhouse leader/mentor type?

I'm not saying he's not but just because someone is experienced doesn't mean they are willing to assume that type of role or are suited for it.

You know, I'm not really sure. A few articles popped up on bleacher report about him being a leader in the clubhouse for the Mariners over the years. One about him buying his catcher a rolex after his perfect game... But I'm no expert on Felix.

I think what is clear is his track record and his love for baseball. I'm hoping that he'll be a valuable pressence for the young pitchers.

[Philip]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Forget the W-L record.   117 ERA+ does not scream Hall of Fame.   

If you look at the total picture you’re going to find an amazing collection of accomplishments. He was constantly losing games 2 to 1 because the Mariners didn’t score any runs.

I haven’t really compared him to Hall of Fame players, but he was certainly a dominant pitcher for a very long time

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Forget the W-L record.   117 ERA+ does not scream Hall of Fame.   

Would need to look closer at the numbers but off the top of my head, he is as worthy as Jack Morris, if not moreso.

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

If you squint your eyes, you can see a few positives.  He is a GB pitcher still, which helps.  He is throwing strikes at about a ML average rate.  He misses bats at about a ML average rate for a starter. His K/BB ratio is still over 2:1.  His xFIP the last 2 years was significantly lower than his actual ERA.  He didn’t pitch last year, so maybe he is more refreshed.

Now, for every one of those “positives”, it’s pretty easy to spin a negative from it.  He isn’t a guy likely to give you anything but again, maybe they can catch lightning in a bottle and get lucky for 10ish starts.  

If you want the negative spin, just look at his statcast info from 2019. 

This is a low-risk, low-cost move so I don't have an issue with it, but I'd be very surprised if he pitching for the Orioles by June. 

Who knows, may he's reinvented himself as a junkballer?

I have very low expectations for him, but again, bringing him in on a minor league contract and taking look when the current options are not filled with absolutely ready starters doesn't hurt anything.

[owknows]

Elias pulls another tarnished bauble out of the dumpster....  shines it up on his sleeve...  waits a couple of months, and trades it in for another scratch-off ticket...

[ScGO's]

He did kill it in spring training last season.  Averaged over a K per inning, no HRs, ERA was 1.98 in 13.2 innings. Never know until he gets up on the mound in a few weeks.

[Moose Milligan]

The whole "we just signed a guy off the scrap heap that anyone else could have signed and we can flip him at the deadline for a prospect" is one of my least favorite tropes on OH.  

[owknows]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

The whole "we just signed a guy off the scrap heap that anyone else could have signed and we can flip him at the deadline for a prospect" is one of my least favorite tropes on OH.  

Kinda hard to call it a trope when it's played itself out precisely that way a half-dozen times in the last couple years.

[Frobby]

33 minutes ago, Philip said:

If you look at the total picture you’re going to find an amazing collection of accomplishments. He was constantly losing games 2 to 1 because the Mariners didn’t score any runs.

I haven’t really compared him to Hall of Fame players, but he was certainly a dominant pitcher for a very long time

I don’t want to come off as some sort of Felix hater, because I’m definitely not.   Through his 20’s, he was as about as good as any pitcher in his generation.   But with very few exceptions, HOF requires top performance well into a player’s 30’s — especially to get admitted on the first ballot.    

I see four active pitchers today who are highly likely to get into the HOF — Verlander, Kershaw, Greinke and Scherzer.    Those are first ballot guys.     I think Felix falls short of that, mainly because he hasn’t been very effective in his 30’s.    
 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Would need to look closer at the numbers but off the top of my head, he is as worthy as Jack Morris, if not moreso.

I’m sure I could find several pitchers who made the HOF with careers comparable to or worse than Felix’s.    I also could find quite a few pitchers who had comparable careers and never made it, or at least, haven’t made it yet.    I count 30+ pitchers with a higher career rWAR than Felix who aren’t in the HOF.   I see 17 below him who are in, many of whom are relievers.

And no, I do not think career rWAR  should be the sole criterion, or even the main criterion, for judging HOF qualifications.    I’m just using it here as a quick benchmark to give a rough idea of where Felix stands compared to others who have or haven’t made the HOF.
 

[LTO's]

Am I alone in being surprised at how young he is? He's two years older than Jacob Degrom and is a year younger than Gio Gonzalez (who I thought the O's might target). It really is so sad that the Mariners couldn't manage to make the playoffs once while he was there. He may not make the HOF, but to me he's a legend.