Fangraphs gives Os 0.0% of making playoffs

[Sports Guy]

Not that I disagree but think it’s funny. 

[Can_of_corn]

I do think they have as good a chance as the Rockies.

[Sports Guy]

Tampa’s % is a joke imo, especially compared to Boston.

[ScGO's]

Folks on Twitter are having a good old time with our 0% chance.

I don't really understand this though.  We were in the playoff hunt last year for a good chunk of the season, and I feel we will be better this year with Mancini back, a very underrated bullpen, and the young arms coming up.  I honestly feel like we deserve at least a 5% chance

[Can_of_corn]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Tampa’s % is a joke imo, especially compared to Boston.

I'd be interested in seeing how they came up with that number.  It does seem very low.

[jerios55]

26 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I do think they have as good a chance as the Rockies.

Apparently, only if we moved to the NL West...

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

Folks on Twitter are having a good old time with our 0% chance.

I don't really understand this though.  We were in the playoff hunt last year for a good chunk of the season, and I feel we will be better this year with Mancini back, a very underrated bullpen, and the young arms coming up.  I honestly feel like we deserve at least a 5% chance

5% is too high but I am surprised at 0%.  Basically they are saying there is no scenario where they can contend.  I don’t think that’s true...but I do think the scenario is far out there that some tiny % should apply.

 

But who really cares?  0% or 1% is still no chance.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

5% is too high but I am surprised at 0%.  Basically they are saying there is no scenario where they can contend.  I don’t think that’s true...but I do think the scenario is far out there that some tiny % should apply.

 

But who really cares?  0% or 1% is still no chance.

Of course their is a scenario, one in which they increase the number of teams that make the playoff while simultaneously shortening the season.

[Frobby]

They didn’t give us a negative number?    We should be thrilled!

To ScGO’s: the fact that we were kinda sorta in the race for 30-40 games of a 60-game season doesn’t say much about how things will go over 162.    The chances of an outlier outcome decrease significantly over a longer period.    

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

They didn’t give us a negative number?    We should be thrilled!

To ScGO’s: the fact that we were kinda sorta in the race for 30-40 games of a 60-game season doesn’t say much about how things will go over 162.    The chances of an outlier outcome decrease significantly over a longer period.    

I'd give the O's a better that zero chance if I thought Elias would lift a finger to help a surprising team squeak into the playoffs.  Like the Marlins GM did last year.

[Sports Guy]

There are aspects of this team that I like.  
 

I like the BP and if they pen can be good (say, top half of the AL), that keeps you in a lot of games.

I think the defense will be improved.  Still not great but improved.

Offense is an issue all around with the OF having good upside.  
 

But what do the starters give you?  That’s the obvious issue.  
 

Also, how quickly they promote guys will be something to watch too.

In a scenario where you can get a 4.50 ERA out of your starters and a 3.75ish ERA out of your pen, I think that keeps you in games on most nights.  
 

How quickly Diaz, Adley, Baumann, et al get up and perform could really help out.  
 

It’s just all so unlikely to happen thats it’s barely worth mentioning...I’m just surprised that a stat service wouldn’t give you something of a chance, ala Colorado, for that who the hell knows, out of nowhere scenario.

[Can_of_corn]

I do think they should bake in a .1% chance.

[Sanfran327]

When you think of it in terms of the division we play in, it's true. Central or West gives us at least fractions of a point.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

[NCRaven]

So, there is a non-zero chance that the sun could explode today, but a zero percent chance for the Orioles to make the WS?  Vegas prop bet - which happens first:  1. The sun explodes.  2.  NCRaven wins Powerball.  3. Orioles win the World Series.