Effect of Tatis deal on Adley

[MarCakes21]

9 minutes ago, wildcard said:

If the O's could get 6 good years from Adley that would be enough IMO.    Debut at 24 and be available for FA at 30.  Catchers passed  30 are on the decline.  And though Adley may be a very good hitter for a catcher how does anyone know if at 30 after catching for 6 years he will be a good hitter for a 1B?

The O's are building a good farm system with good player development.  After 6 year that farm system needs to produce another good catcher.   I am not for a long term deal with Adley.

What about buying out 2-3 years of free agency now (assuming you can assess how he'll play against big league pitching).  Take him out to age 32-33 but not out to age 36 like a next deal likely would.

[wildcard]

10 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

What about buying out 2-3 years of free agency now (assuming you can assess how he'll play against big league pitching).  Take him out to age 32-33 but not out to age 36 like a next deal likely would.

Joe Mauer had one year after his age 30 season that he hit over 800 OPS. (801 at age 34).  Buster Posey is following the same track.   I just don't think the history is there to pay big for catchers after their age 30 season even if they move to 1B.

[Sports Guy]

24 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Joe Mauer had one year after his age 30 season that he hit over 800 OPS. (801 at age 34).  Buster Posey is following the same track.   I just don't think the history is there to pay big for catchers after their age 30 season even if they move to 1B.

Posey turned 30 prior to the 2017 season. That season, he had a 4.7 fWAR.  The following year, it was 2.2 in a season where he only played 105 games.  In the shortened 2020 season, it was 1.5.

So, he has been very productive at age 30 and beyond.  
 

By the time Mauer was 24, he had already played in 300 ML games.  Adley wont have the same wear and tear on him.

If he is as good as they say he is, Posey is the better comp since he was also a college bat.  Posey got a little time at age 22 but he really debuted at age 23.  Adley will do the same and had last year been a Normal year, I think he is up here as soon as they gain the service time.

[Just Regular]

Obviously I'd love for Adley to "figure out what he needs to work on" and walk the Orange Carpet.   I think like many players he could sell a free agent year or three at a price point the club likes and earn "developmental opportunities" in MLB games.

The White Sox GM's comments about Andrew Vaughn this spring being like Eloy or Robert are I feel pretty brazen in this respect.

In terms of guesstimating a contract structure, Realmuto I think makes a decent yardstick.

He made 3/6/10 in Arb, and then 23 AAV for ages 30-34.   If Adley extends, it's a tacit agreement to 7-years of club control for all of his 23-29 seasons.  If he makes it up halfway through this year, we basically get 23.5-29 instead.    If we only want to buy 30-31, not 30-34, a higher AAV ala Bauer Dodgers is perhaps fair.   I'll guess 7-years of inflation and Adley having a hard argument to make today he's better than Realmuto is a push, so maybe structure FA Year 1 as $20M team option and FA Year 2 as $25M team option.   Buy-outs of 20% on each of those options.

The price point for the nebulous 7th year Realmuto didn't have would be Super Two/Arb 4-ish, so 15 between Arb3 10 and FA Option 1 20 okay for the back of a napkin.

So Adley Orange Carpet...600/600/600/$3M/$6M/$10M/$15M, then $20M (or $4M) and $25M (or $5M).

I am not sure if the media would write that one like 7-year, $40M guaranteed, or 9-year, $81M.   Knees and all I'm not super crazy to buy more than a couple FA years from here, but of course there's the chicken/egg if he extends then maybe he catches 100 not 130 times a year.   Even if he is signed long-term, I think heavy workloads chasing that first wildcard berth are probably in his future.

[wildcard]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Posey turned 30 prior to the 2017 season. That season, he had a 4.7 fWAR.  The following year, it was 2.2 in a season where he only played 105 games.  In the shortened 2020 season, it was 1.5.

So, he has been very productive at age 30 and beyond.  
 

By the time Mauer was 24, he had already played in 300 ML games.  Adley wont have the same wear and tear on him.

If he is as good as they say he is, Posey is the better comp since he was also a college bat.  Posey got a little time at age 22 but he really debuted at age 23.  Adley will do the same and had last year been a Normal year, I think he is up here as soon as they gain the service time.

Posey posted a 741 OPS at 31 and a 688 OPS at 32.   I am not saying he is not a good player any more but I would not pay 20M a year for that kind of production. The only way I think any one would is if the team was stuck in a long term contract.

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Posey posted a 741 OPS at 31 and a 688 OPS at 32.   I am not saying he is not a good player any more but I would not pay 20M a year for that kind of production. The only way I think any one would is if the team was stuck in a long term contract.

First of all, I misspoke.  He sat out 2020.  Secondly, I don’t disagree but he is obviously still bringing a lot of defensive value.  According to FG, he was still worth 32M in those 2 years.  So, your ROI really isn’t that bad compared to most FA deals.  If that is your floor, that is all the more reason to sign him (btw, I don’t think that’s the floor but just making the point)

[Sports Guy]

24 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

Obviously I'd love for Adley to "figure out what he needs to work on" and walk the Orange Carpet.   I think like many players he could sell a free agent year or three at a price point the club likes and earn "developmental opportunities" in MLB games.

The White Sox GM's comments about Andrew Vaughn this spring being like Eloy or Robert are I feel pretty brazen in this respect.

In terms of guesstimating a contract structure, Realmuto I think makes a decent yardstick.

He made 3/6/10 in Arb, and then 23 AAV for ages 30-34.   If Adley extends, it's a tacit agreement to 7-years of club control for all of his 23-29 seasons.  If he makes it up halfway through this year, we basically get 23.5-29 instead.    If we only want to buy 30-31, not 30-34, a higher AAV ala Bauer Dodgers is perhaps fair.   I'll guess 7-years of inflation and Adley having a hard argument to make today he's better than Realmuto is a push, so maybe structure FA Year 1 as $20M team option and FA Year 2 as $25M team option.   Buy-outs of 20% on each of those options.

The price point for the nebulous 7th year Realmuto didn't have would be Super Two/Arb 4-ish, so 15 between Arb3 10 and FA Option 1 20 okay for the back of a napkin.

So Adley Orange Carpet...600/600/600/$3M/$6M/$10M/$15M, then $20M (or $4M) and $25M (or $5M).

I am not sure if the media would write that one like 7-year, $40M guaranteed, or 9-year, $81M.   Knees and all I'm not super crazy to buy more than a couple FA years from here, but of course there's the chicken/egg if he extends then maybe he catches 100 not 130 times a year.   Even if he is signed long-term, I think heavy workloads chasing that first wildcard berth are probably in his future.

Your arb numbers are way off. Those would have been the numbers 10+ years ago...not anymore. (At least if he is really good)

[jabba72]

AR will be hard to project how good he is until he's in Baltimore for a few months. But if the bat looks elite, I would be fine with buying his 7th and 8th year.

[Just Regular]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Your arb numbers are way off. Those would have been the numbers 10+ years ago...not anymore. (At least if he is really good)

I'm all for paying good players good money, but those are Realmuto actuals for 2018-2020 as he was pumping out 4.5 rWAR seasons like clockwork.

Correa's put out ~25 WAR before his final Arb year, and is making a bit under $12M this year after Houston went 70% of the way to his number to avoid a hearing.

I hope Rutschman outshines even stars like that, but I don't think you price that into a contract offer.

[HowAboutThat]

No.

[Sports Guy]

34 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

I'm all for paying good players good money, but those are Realmuto actuals for 2018-2020 as he was pumping out 4.5 rWAR seasons like clockwork.

Correa's put out ~25 WAR before his final Arb year, and is making a bit under $12M this year after Houston went 70% of the way to his number to avoid a hearing.

I hope Rutschman outshines even stars like that, but I don't think you price that into a contract offer.

That’s interesting.  Good info there.  Not sure how he was that grossly underpaid in those arb seasons.

[Ruzious]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

All a year is going to tell you is if he can hit AA pitching.

Mayhap.  It might finally be the last straw for me with the O's if he doesn't get a significant amount of playing time in Baltimore this season.   

[Aristotelian]

Sorry, this deal makes a long term contract for Rutschman more unlikely because it shows how high the ceiling can be if you bet on yourself and hold out for the biggest possible payday. The analogous move would have been for the Padres to lock Tatis up for $100M when he was still a prospect. Sure, the O's would be smart to offer something like that, but now Rutschman would be a fool to take it. I don't see the O's offering $300M for a kid who has not played AA yet, and I don't see Rutchsman taking anything less than that. 

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Sorry, this deal makes a long term contract for Rutschman more unlikely because it shows how high the ceiling can be if you bet on yourself and hold out for the biggest possible payday. The analogous move would have been for the Padres to lock Tatis up for $100M when he was still a prospect. Sure, the O's would be smart to offer something like that, but now Rutschman would be a fool to take it. I don't see the O's offering $300M for a kid who has not played AA yet, and I don't see Rutchsman taking anything less than that. 

Well, his position doesn’t demand that type of pay day...and neither does moving to first.

[Aristotelian]

42 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, his position doesn’t demand that type of pay day...and neither does moving to first.

Point being, Rutschman has no incentive to take a team friendly deal and O's can't write a blank check. Hope I am wrong but I do not see it happening and Tatis makes it even more unlikely.