Should Adley Rutschman play in the majors in 2021?

[Frobby]

28 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Can I have a list of highly touted college bats that never played above low A and played in the majors?

For context.

 

It isn’t a long list.   I recall Bob Horner (1:1 pick 1977, 21.9 rWAR and 127 OPS+) and Pete Incaviglia (1:8 pick 1985, 10.3 rWAR, 104 OPS+) never played in the minors at all.    John Olerud (1:1 pick 1989, 58.1 rWAR, 129 OPS+) went straight to the majors and never played in the minors except for a three game stint in his final season.   

[wildcard]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Schoop put up an OPS of 65 his rookie year.  Did he get sent to the minors?  Did it hurt his career?  Does anyone even remember that?

Schoop played 70 games in AAA and could probably used more.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

There is not given that Adley will be able to hit major league pitching.  Failure is a possibility if he is not developed properly.   From where he is now he first shows he has hit AA pitching.  Then AAA pitching.  That gives him the best chance to be successful in the majors.  Just like Mountcastle.

I’d be surprised if he sees AAA and if he does, it will be a short stint.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

There is not given that Adley will be able to hit major league pitching.  Failure is a possibility if he is not developed properly.   From where he is now he first shows he has hit AA pitching.  Then AAA pitching.  That gives him the best chance to be successful in the majors.  Just like Mountcastle.

You are right.

Failure is a possibility regardless.

You have no evidence that additional development time added Mountcastle.  For instance we didn't see his walk rate increase until he got to the majors. 

Also Mountcastle was a HS draftee that was never regarded nearly as highly as AR.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Schoop played 70 games in AAA and could probably used more.

Would he have been a better MLer long term if he had more AAA at bats?

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It isn’t a long list.   I recall Bob Horner (1:1 pick 1977, 21.9 rWAR and 127 OPS+) and Pete Incaviglia (1:8 pick 1985, 10.3 rWAR, 104 OPS+) never played in the minors at all.    

Yep and I think all three are outside of the time period mentioned.

Kinda hard to come up with names that did well when you don't have any names to pick from.

Drungo has touched upon this.  The system is set up to favor a slow promotion schedule. 

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Would he have been a better MLer long term if he had more AAA at bats?

Maybe he would not have struggled  has much.  

[Frobby]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Yep and I think both are outside of the time period mentioned.

Kinda hard to come up with names that did well when you don't have any names to pick from.

Drungo has touched upon this.  The system is set up to favor a slow promotion schedule. 

Well, they finished in the time period mentioned.   And I edited my post to add John Olerud, who’s more recent and a better player than the other two.  

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

Well, they finished in the time period mentioned.   And I edited my post to add John Olerud, who’s more recent and a better player than the other two.  

I edited my reply. 

 

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Yep and I think both are outside of the time period mentioned.

Kinda hard to come up with names that did well when you don't have any names to pick from.

Drungo has touched upon this.  The system is set up to favor a slow promotion schedule. 

Because it gives the best chance the player will succeed.

[LookinUp]

I'm going to assume that AR is pretty obviously the best catcher in spring training. If not, I'll assume it's close. He's not going to stink all of the sudden.

So assuming that, I want the extra year of service time. That means I'd bring him up pretty much when eligible for the extra year.

If I delayed beyond that, it would be because 1) the AA season starts later and I want him to get his feet wet (weak reason, IMO) or 2) I'm trying to maximize Severino's value for a trade (also pretty weak).

In a perfect world, Severino starts out like a house of fire. We call up AR in May/June and Severino gets more bench time and eventually traded.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, wildcard said:

Because it gives the best chance the player will succeed.

Do you honestly think that?

You poor naive soul.

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Do you honestly think that?

You poor naive soul.

When you resort to character  assassination it time to stop the conversation.

[Sports Guy]

Adley was originally drafted in 2016.

This wasn’t a very strong draft (as of yet) but here are some names of guys who have debuted already that were drafted in the first 80ish picks:

Ian Anderson- drafted out of HS..barely any MiL time, especially in the upper minors.  He started several playoff games in 2020.

Kyle Lewis- Debuted in 2019..Never played in AAA.  Went to Mercer, a lower level D1 school that isn’t nearly the level of competition the Pac12 is.

Gavin Lux- Drafted out of HS by the best organization  in the sport.  Was in AA within 2 years and the majors within 3.

Will Smith- in the majors within 3 seasons and regarded as one of the best C in the game.

Bo Bichette-  HS pick..in majors in 3 seasons.

Looking at the Hs kids here...did these teams make a mistake?

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Maybe he would not have struggled  has much.  

When?  Immediately?  Perhaps....but his career is unchanged overall.  It’s not like he allowed those struggles to Define who was as a player going forward.