Should Adley Rutschman play in the majors in 2021?

[Just Regular]

I'm for Week 2 Adley, but grant that does involve a small sacrifice.   Glass Half Full Severino might be a Top 15-20-ish MLB catcher.   The short season last year didn't wear down catchers (or Rays relievers) like a full year would.   I think 5 months of experience is more valuable to the 2022 Orioles than any likely Severino trade return you might cannibalize by reducing his reps.   Sure for the full Adley 2021-2027 experience, 5 months or 1 month this year is more academic.

I think Sisco's trade value is less and he might fit better together with Adley in time.

[Beef Supreme]

On 2/19/2021 at 1:49 PM, Frobby said:

I expect the Orioles to do what is in the team’s long term best interests.    Being fair to the players (hence, keeping them happy and loyal) is a component of that, but not the only one.    

I just don’t see how performance is irrelevant to that.    It’s one thing to park a guy with a .900 OPS in the minors all year, and it’s another thing to keep a .700 OPS guy down all year.   Regardless of age.  
 

Elite defensive catchers are not kept down in the minors just because of ~ .700 OPS. Didn't prevent Pudge or Yadier Molina or Yorvit Torrealba from being promoted. 

At the major league level, if a team has an elite defensive catcher with a .700 OPS, they play him 120 games. And roster a better hitting backup.

[webbrick2010]

Yes he is already too old to be a premium prospect at AA, and almost at AAA

Would like to see him before he is past his prime.

Can I repeat how I hated picking a college (even old for college) catcher with 1-1

 

[LTO's]

4 hours ago, Beef Supreme said:

At the major league level, if a team has an elite defensive catcher with a .700 OPS

It's really, really, really presumptuous to pencil that in for Adley this season. 

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, LTO's said:

It's really, really, really presumptuous to pencil that in for Adley this season. 

Is it?  ZiPS has him at .664.  So are they just really, really presumptuous?

[Frobby]

53 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Is it?  ZiPS has him at .664.  So are they just really, really presumptuous?

.664 is not .700.    And the elite defense is being presumed.   I expect him to be a very good defender.   It would be very presumptuous to lump him with Pudge and Molina at this stage.  
 

PECOTA pegs him at .603, by the way.    Bottom line, they’re all wild-ass guesses with very little data to go on.    

[linedrive]

On 2/18/2021 at 8:31 PM, scOtt said:

Kind of like Mountcastle did.

 

 

edit: And no, I don't mean hold Adley back EXCRUCIATINGLY long like they did Mouncastle. Just long enough that he bursts onto the ML scene, not trickles in.

Agreed. Mountcastle might be the better comparison at the moment. 

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

.664 is not .700.    And the elite defense is being presumed.   I expect him to be a very good defender.   It would be very presumptuous to lump him with Pudge and Molina at this stage.  
 

PECOTA pegs him at .603, by the way.    Bottom line, they’re all wild-ass guesses with very little data to go on.    

Right, which is why I removed the third really.   

[interloper]

21 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Is it?  ZiPS has him at .664.  So are they just really, really presumptuous?

Yes? 

[Sports Guy]

22 hours ago, LTO's said:

It's really, really, really presumptuous to pencil that in for Adley this season. 

I would be pretty surprised if he couldn’t put up a 700 OPs in the majors this year and I don’t mean in some SSS where the stats can get skewed.  

[interloper]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I would be pretty surprised if he couldn’t put up a 700 OPs in the majors this year and I don’t mean in some SSS where the stats can get skewed.  

I wouldn't be surprised either. Even Sisco had a .741 last year and .729 in 2019. 

But I would be equally unsurprised to see him post a .600ish or below OPS because we know absolutely nothing about him as a player other than his college numbers. 

[LTO's]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I would be pretty surprised if he couldn’t put up a 700 OPs in the majors this year and I don’t mean in some SSS where the stats can get skewed.  

I wouldn't. At all. Again, he's barely played professional baseball. He has insane gifts, but the MLB is not short season ball or the Pac 12. In 40 games in his rookie season, Mike Trout was outmatched in the big leagues. Would it have been good for his development for him to play 120ish more games that year with a .670 OPS? I doubt it. Now, I fully expect Adley to make his debut towards the end of the year and I'll be pretty peeved if he doesn't. There's a difference between valuable experience and hanging a kid out to dry. 

[Moose Milligan]

I'd like to see him in Baltimore this summer but I get the increasing feeling that he won't and this will be one of the OH dead horses to be beaten in 2021.

The feeling is based on nothing other than it would be par for the course for the Orioles to be disappointing.  The dead horse beating is based on lots of experience.

[Ruzious]

10 minutes ago, LTO's said:

I wouldn't. At all. Again, he's barely played professional baseball. He has insane gifts, but the MLB is not short season ball or the Pac 12. In 40 games in his rookie season, Mike Trout was outmatched in the big leagues. Would it have been good for his development for him to play 120ish more games that year with a .670 OPS? I doubt it. Now, I fully expect Adley to make his debut towards the end of the year and I'll be pretty peeved if he doesn't. There's a difference between valuable experience and hanging a kid out to dry. 

You're talking about 135 plate appearances in Trout's first year.  In his 1st full year, he OPS'd .963, won ROY, was 2nd in MVP voting, won a Silver Slugger,  was 1st in offensive WAR in the AL, 8th in defensive WAR in the AL, I could go on and on.   

[Sports Guy]

If he is up by July and gets 250ish at bats, I think Adley OpS’es over 700.  (Again, based on the assumption that he’s as good as they say he is)