Posnanski Orioles Preview

[SteveA]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Why not give Ryan Ripken a chance in the bigs?

Yaz's ML OPS is over a hundred points higher than his career minor league OPS, despite him often being old for his level.  There was no reason to give him a chance. Other than his last name and the magic of hindsight that is.

You don't take guys that look and act like career minor leaguers and give them a shot in the bigs just to see if they magically morph into actual players at 28.

Those idiot Giants did

[Can_of_corn]

53 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Those idiot Giants did

Don't pretend like they knew something.  They got hit with massive injuries in the outfield.  That is why he got a shot.

[SteveA]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Don't pretend like they knew something.  They got hit with massive injuries in the outfield.  That is why he got a shot.

And we traded him in March 2019.

We went on that year to give the most games in LF to Dwight Smith Jr, the most games in CF to Steve Wilkerson, and the most games in RF to Trey Mancini (while Chris Davis manned first).

[Jammer7]

On 2/22/2021 at 2:40 PM, SteveA said:

And we traded him in March 2019.

We went on that year to give the most games in LF to Dwight Smith Jr, the most games in CF to Steve Wilkerson, and the most games in RF to Trey Mancini (while Chris Davis manned first).

Yeah, sigh...

They made a call on a 28 year old smaller corner OF, plagued by injuries, who had never done anything like this in the minors. Sure, he could have had a shot. But they thought Yaz was a non-prospect and traded him. He had not been a prospect in a few years. They thought the guys they have were more likely to produce better numbers. No one took him in the rule 5, so they obviously were not alone. They did not count on injuries to Hays and Diaz, or the struggles of Mullins and Stewart. Or the games played would have looked a lot different.

Smith was generally regarded as a much better potential hitter than Yaz. Another injury, a bad one in a collision with the fence, caused serious issues with his neck and shoulder. I do not think that I have ever read what a terrible lazy OF he had become before coming to Baltimore. Before the injury, I thought he was a bit below average defensively. After the injury, he was possibly the worst defensive OF I have ever seen. Worse than Kevin Mitchell at the end of his career. 

Elias was wrong. So was every other team. Good for Yaz. Every team gets one wrong now and then. I’m not sure he is a “star.” Not yet. But I would certainly like to have that one back. I bet Elias would too. Next.

[Ridgway22]

6 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Random player from history: Ken Dixon.

When Ken Dixon was in Double-A Charlotte, he was such a strikeout wizard that the organization would hand out K cards on the days he pitched.

Random, almost related fact about the 1980 draft:

The O's first rounder 26th overall was Jeff Williams, not a sniff of the majors.

Ken Dixon was taken 61 overall

 

then.....

I was taken 594th overall, before:

Danny Jackson 599

Darren Daulton 629

Chris Sabo 727 overall

(.....one of those things is not like the other)

https://www.baseball-almanac.com/draft/baseball-draft.php?yr=1980

 

[DrungoHazewood]

16 hours ago, SteveA said:

And we traded him in March 2019.

We went on that year to give the most games in LF to Dwight Smith Jr, the most games in CF to Steve Wilkerson, and the most games in RF to Trey Mancini (while Chris Davis manned first).

Dwight Smith Jr had a similar minor league resume, Yaz had spent parts of the prior two seasons in AA, and Smith was two years younger.  I know, I know, the Orioles should have employed Puff The Magic Scout who just had a hunch that the guy who's the same age as Joey Rickard and hit the same as Joey Rickard was going to become a star.

[linedrive]

On 2/22/2021 at 9:05 AM, Moose Milligan said:

You know, when I was younger there was this glorious preview magazine that was called Bill Mazeroski’s Baseball. When I was in high school, we lived in an apartment complex that had an old-fashioned newsstand — it was even called “Newsstand International.” And every year, starting in late January, I would go there and look to see if Bill Mazeroski’s Baseball had arrived. I would go to the sports section of magazines, scan it, get yelled at by the woman who ran the place, (“No browsing!”) and then come back the next day.

Oh man, I really loved Bill Mazeroski's Baseball too! Was always looking forward to it. 

[DrungoHazewood]

13 hours ago, linedrive said:

Oh man, I really loved Bill Mazeroski's Baseball too! Was always looking forward to it. 

It's funny thinking back to that era, and how access to information was like Christmas.  The Mazeroski annual, the 5-pound Baseball Encyclopedia, the Sporting News, and the unicorn newsstand that would carry Baseball America... it was like opening a rare present.  Unbelievable delights were hidden inside.  A lot of people made a good living on the fact that it was impossible to distribute information in even a 2000 or 2010 context.  Things I'd look up online in 10 seconds today were literally impossible to find out in 1990.

[Frobby]

48 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

It's funny thinking back to that era, and how access to information was like Christmas.  The Mazeroski annual, the 5-pound Baseball Encyclopedia, the Sporting News, and the unicorn newsstand that would carry Baseball America... it was like opening a rare present.  Unbelievable delights were hidden inside.  A lot of people made a good living on the fact that it was impossible to distribute information in even a 2000 or 2010 context.  Things I'd look up online in 10 seconds today were literally impossible to find out in 1990.

I remember traveling in Australia and New Zealand in ‘82.    The only way to even find out the standings was to hunt down a copy of the International Herald Tribune, which by the time it reached those countries would be 2-3 days old and would be reporting the standings and results from two days before that.    If you could find one.    I followed the ‘82 stretch drive that way for almost two months.   

[NCRaven]

I was stationed in Germany from 84-87.  My mom got me a subscription to the Sunday Sun.  They’d have all the league stats leaders, Marylanders in the Minors, and great reporting.  The Sporting News weekly would have every box score for the past week.  It was the baseball paper of record when you actually read words on paper.

I miss those days.  Mainly because I was 24 and didn’t make creaky old guy noises when I sat down or stood up.  But I digress.

[DrungoHazewood]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

I remember traveling in Australia and New Zealand in ‘82.    The only way to even find out the standings was to hunt down a copy of the International Herald Tribune, which by the time it reached those countries would be 2-3 days old and would be reporting the standings and results from two days before that.    If you could find one.    I followed the ‘82 stretch drive that way for almost two months.   

I never had quite that experience, I never traveled overseas until the late 90s.

I was a freshman at Virginia Tech in '89, and followed the last month of the season by newspapers and highlights.  I saw Olson bounce the curve in Toronto 15 minutes after the fact on Headline News because the Tech cable package didn't have HTS.  But at least the book store in the little mall by Kroger carried Baseball America.  The internet didn't really become a thing until after I'd graduated.

In middle/high school, probably into college, I had a Sporting News subscription.  But that was the era they went from the baseball paper of record to more multi-sport and tabloid-y.

[Sanfran327]

Nice writeup. Thanks to the OP for sharing. I was looking for a thread to ask this question, and the article sets it up perfectly:

Is there any reasonable scenario in which the talent on this team is so unknown at this point that we could be heading into another 2012 this season? Is it possible that a decent start could be the catalyst for an earlier-than-expected Rutchman promotion that could make this season interesting? 

What's a reasonable win total for the 2nd WC? 84 or so? Is that really definitively out of reach for this club in 2021?

[wildcard]

4 hours ago, Sanfran327 said:

Nice writeup. Thanks to the OP for sharing. I was looking for a thread to ask this question, and the article sets it up perfectly:

Is there any reasonable scenario in which the talent on this team is so unknown at this point that we could be heading into another 2012 this season? Is it possible that a decent start could be the catalyst for an earlier-than-expected Rutchman promotion that could make this season interesting? 

What's a reasonable win total for the 2nd WC? 84 or so? Is that really definitively out of reach for this club in 2021?

Anything is possible but probably not likely.  This is a transition year.  We are going to see 4 young starters in the rotation as the season goes on.   The Infield has one plus defensive player in Sanchez and 3 guys that are average on defense.  Three of the four are not likely to hit much.   The talent level of the team needs to improve to make the playoffs  and experience of the young players needs to happen which probably means ups and downs.

Also there is a decent chance that Elias is not finished trading veterans due the season.  If Mancini,  Severino,  Valdez,  and Armstong have good years they could be gone at the deadline.   That could include Galvis and Sanchez if anyone would want to give something of value for them (which i doubt).

I think we have to remember that Elias has said that he is not building this team to sneak into the playoffs.  He is building the team to win the division year after year.   So until he flips the switch veterans get traded for younger players and high draft choices are valued.

[webbrick2010]

On 2/22/2021 at 10:06 AM, Can_of_corn said:

Why not give Ryan Ripken a chance in the bigs?

Yaz's ML OPS is over a hundred points higher than his career minor league OPS, despite him often being old for his level.  There was no reason to give him a chance. Other than his last name and the magic of hindsight that is.

You don't take guys that look and act like career minor leaguers and give them a shot in the bigs just to see if they magically morph into actual players at 28.

From a 100 yards away and with one eye tied behind my back I could see that Yaz was a better ball player than DJ Stewart, yet Yaz is gone and DJ is on the roster which is surprising because I'm sure all the guilty parties involved in scouting him and drafting him in the first round are all gone.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Sanfran327 said:

Nice writeup. Thanks to the OP for sharing. I was looking for a thread to ask this question, and the article sets it up perfectly:

Is there any reasonable scenario in which the talent on this team is so unknown at this point that we could be heading into another 2012 this season? 

Highly unlikely, but you never really know for sure.   That’s why they play the games.   

When you look back on 2012, it really boils down to pitching.   They allowed 155 fewer runs than the year before, and the bullpen was really good at protecting leads.    The team outperformed its Pythagorean record by a lot, and the biggest reason for that was a truly stellar bullpen performance.   

Last year’s pitching was below average but not awful (allowed 4.90 runs/game compared to 5.31 for that 2011 team).    The bullpen last year was much better than the 2011 bullpen.   So, I don’t think we can pick up as many games as in 2012 purely through pitching improvements, even if a lot of things went right.    We’d need to see significant improvement on offense as well.   I could kind of dream on it if Mancini made a full comeback, Hays and Santander stayed healthy all year, and Mountcastle approximated his 2020 performance over a full season.   

I’ll be watching, one way or the other.    This is the most interesting team they’ve had since things fell apart, in terms of individual players to watch.