TT: Rotation "horserace" becomes clearer

[Tony-OH]

Let's face it, Felix Hernandez has been throwing mid-80s all spring so it doesn't come as a huge surprise that he suddenly has elbow discomfort. 

This along with the fact that Matt Harvey was reportedly throwing 94-96 yesterday and pitched decently over four innings, and Jorge Lopez continues to pitch well has made it an interesting horse race for the final two rotation spots.

Officially, no one but John Means had a rotation spot but I think we all knew that Keegan Akin and Dean Kremer had spots unless they either got injured or imploded this spring.

Let's assume these three are in the rotation:
1. Means
2. Kremer
3. Akins

That leaves two spots open if they go with the five-man rotation and since Holt basically said he doesn't like 6-man rotation, I'm going to go with a five man rotation.

I see almost no way Bruce Zimmermann doesn't make the rotation with his spring so far. Not only hasn't he given up a run, but his fastball was up to 94-95 MPH and touching 96 in his last start and his slider has been a real unhittable pitch.

So, I'm saying Zim is in at #4.
4. Zimmermann

That leaves one more spot and if we scratch Hernandez off (Nothing is official, but I'm going to go with the fact that nothing good as ever come from a pitcher throwing 2-3 MPH slower than in years past who suddenly has elbow discomfort), that leaves these candidates:

5. Matt Harvey (NRI)
6. Jorge Lopez
7. Wade LeBlanc (NRI)

Lopez has pitched the best overall so far and is  the only one that doesn't not a roster spot, but if Harvey is throwing 94-96 again, and he's able to look decent, I don't see how he doesn't end up with that 5th spot.

I still think Lopez makes the team as a long reliever/spot starter and besides, he's probably been in need of moving to the pen for some time now. With three lefties in the rotation, I don't see LeBlanc making it without another injury. LeBlanc can got to the alternate site and be ready if an opportunity develops.

So that's how I see things shaking out there in Mid-march. Obviously the last two weeks could change some things, but if I had to guess, the rotation is going be this to give the rotation a L-R-L balance.

1. John Means
2. Dean Kremer
3. Bruce Zimmermann
4. Matt Harvey
5. Keegan Akin

If the Orioles go with 9 relievers for 14 pitchers, here's how I think the bullpen shapes up.

1. Scott (LHP) - High leverage/closer
2. Valdez (RHP) - High leverage/closer
3. Armstrong (RHP)
4. Tate (RHP)
5. Fry (LHP)
6. Cole Sulser (RHP) 
7. Tyler Wells (RHP) - Can provide some length
8. Jorge Lopez (RHP) - Long guy
9. Connor Greene (NRI) (RHP) - Long guy/ but don't be surprised if he works into late inning role.

Davis gets put on 60-day IL to make room for Harvey. Lakins gets DFA'd for Greene.

Now, if the Orioles want more length they could go with LeBlanc over Sulser or possibly Goudeau, but they will both be at the alternate site getting ready so they would be options if needed after the season starts. 



 

[HowAboutThat]

This is a excellent analysis. The only possible argument might be that I think they want Leblanc to stay. We hit the ground running, so we need a lot of long guys. 

[Tony-OH]

4 hours ago, Philip said:

This is a excellent analysis. The only possible argument might be that I think they want Leblanc to stay. We hit the ground running, so we need a lot of long guys. 

Thanks. They could, but I think they know LeBlanc can stay sharp and be ready at the alternate camp. They could very well option Sulser but they would need DFA someone else to make room for LeBlanc, which is why I think he goes to the alternate camp until or if needed.

[Jammer7]

Good stuff! The rotation might not be too bad, actually. Akin’s command and off speed need to come around some. 
 

Interesting development of Conner Greene. I wonder if Fernando Abad isn’t going North with the team, though. I’m not a big fan of Lakins, and have no problem DFAing him. I do think Hyde likes him though. Does he like Wells better? I do. 
 

In the pen you list, Greene has an option, Sulser, Tate and Fry have options as well. I would like a little more flexibility, ideally, but that should do, especially with a 9-man pen. 

[wildcard]

12 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Let's face it, Felix Hernandez has been throwing mid-80s all spring so it doesn't come as a huge surprise that he suddenly has elbow discomfort. 

This along with the fact that Matt Harvey was reportedly throwing 94-96 yesterday and pitched decently over four innings, and Jorge Lopez continues to pitch well has made it an interesting horse race for the final two rotation spots.

Officially, no one but John Means had a rotation spot but I think we all knew that Keegan Akin and Dean Kremer had spots unless they either got injured or imploded this spring.

Let's assume these three are in the rotation:
1. Means
2. Kremer
3. Akins

That leaves two spots open if they go with the five-man rotation and since Holt basically said he doesn't like 6-man rotation, I'm going to go with a five man rotation.

I see almost no way Bruce Zimmermann doesn't make the rotation with his spring so far. Not only hasn't he given up a run, but his fastball was up to 94-95 MPH and touching 96 in his last start and his slider has been a real unhittable pitch.

So, I'm saying Zim is in at #4.
4. Zimmermann

That leaves one more spot and if we scratch Hernandez off (Nothing is official, but I'm going to go with the fact that nothing good as ever come from a pitcher throwing 2-3 MPH slower than in years past who suddenly has elbow discomfort), that leaves these candidates:

5. Matt Harvey (NRI)
6. Jorge Lopez
7. Wade LeBlanc (NRI)

Lopez has pitched the best overall so far and is  the only one that doesn't not a roster spot, but if Harvey is throwing 94-96 again, and he's able to look decent, I don't see how he doesn't end up with that 5th spot.

I still think Lopez makes the team as a long reliever/spot starter and besides, he's probably been in need of moving to the pen for some time now. With three lefties in the rotation, I don't see LeBlanc making it without another injury. LeBlanc can got to the alternate site and be ready if an opportunity develops.

So that's how I see things shaking out there in Mid-march. Obviously the last two weeks could change some things, but if I had to guess, the rotation is going be this to give the rotation a L-R-L balance.

1. John Means
2. Dean Kremer
3. Bruce Zimmermann
4. Matt Harvey
5. Keegan Akin

If the Orioles go with 9 relievers for 14 pitchers, here's how I think the bullpen shapes up.

1. Scott (LHP) - High leverage/closer
2. Valdez (RHP) - High leverage/closer
3. Armstrong (RHP)
4. Tate (RHP)
5. Fry (LHP)
6. Cole Sulser (RHP) 
7. Tyler Wells (RHP) - Can provide some length
8. Jorge Lopez (RHP) - Long guy
9. Connor Greene (NRI) (RHP) - Long guy/ but don't be surprised if he works into late inning role.

Davis gets put on 60-day IL to make room for Harvey. Lakins gets DFA'd for Greene.

Now, if the Orioles want more length they could go with LeBlanc over Sulser or possibly Goudeau, but they will both be at the alternate site getting ready so they would be options if needed after the season starts. 



 

If they put Davis on th e 60 day IL  and return Sceroler that makes room for Matt Harvey and Greene.  They can just option Lakins, they don't have to DFA him.

[Jagwar]

Is Akin really pitching so well this spring that he warrants your initial assumption of being in the rotation? 

[Sports Guy]

Just saw this on Twitter:

He is definitely making the team imo.  I would say they try him in the rotation and then go from there.

Im not convinced they go with Zimmerman over LeBlanc although I agree they should.  
 

LeBlanc is the player on here I wonder about.  Not because I really want him on the team but because I could the Os wanting him on the team.  He question is, who do you take off?  I would guess Lopez or Sulser.
 

I have been intrigued about Greene since early on in the camp and I agree he should make the team.  There is some potential upside in that arm and we should be finding out if he can reach it.

 

[Moose Milligan]

I'd agree, I think Harvey makes the team, too.

[eddie83]

1 hour ago, Jagwar said:

Is Akin really pitching so well this spring that he warrants your initial assumption of being in the rotation? 

I have him off. For one thing not like he is going to make 28-32 starts anyway.  Even if he is throwing well. I say they go with the hot hands in Lopez and Zimmerman at the start with Akin an immediate option. Going to take some time since MiL season starts late for Baumann, Lowther and Wells. Another reason why I think LeBlanc stays on roster as long man. 
 

SP

Means

Kremer

Zimmerman 

Lopez

Harvey 

RP

Scott

Valdez

Armstrong

Tate

Fry

Sulser

Wells

LeBlanc

If they go with 9 then Greene 

 

[Sports Guy]

Akin is on the team (and in the rotation) and he should be.

[LTO's]

2 hours ago, Jagwar said:

Is Akin really pitching so well this spring that he warrants your initial assumption of being in the rotation? 

Akin has the best stuff in the rotation by a decent margin. 

[MurphDogg]

1 hour ago, eddie83 said:

I have him off. For one thing not like he is going to make 28-32 starts anyway.  Even if he is throwing well.

I don't see why he wouldn't. He made 25 starts in 2018 and 24 starts over 25 games in 2019. He is not slight of frame and should be able to handle a starters workload this year.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

I don't see why he wouldn't. He made 25 starts in 2018 and 24 starts over 25 games in 2019. He is not slight of frame and should be able to handle a starters workload this year.

I've seen guys comment on how someone has a starters frame and so on and so forth.  Does that actually mean anything?  I've seen plenty of big workhorse looking guys go down and I've seen some pretty slight starters do just fine.

[MurphDogg]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I've seen guys comment on how someone has a starters frame and so on and so forth.  Does that actually mean anything?  I've seen plenty of big workhorse looking guys go down and I've seen some pretty slight starters do just fine.

I can't point to any studies or articles, hopefully someone else can jump in with more concrete evidence, but it is one of those conventional wisdom things that seems true in general, and I think I would be aware if it had been disproven.

Great question though, hopefully someone else is better at finding something on Google than I am.

[Tony-OH]

8 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

Good stuff! The rotation might not be too bad, actually. Akin’s command and off speed need to come around some. 
 

Interesting development of Conner Greene. I wonder if Fernando Abad isn’t going North with the team, though. I’m not a big fan of Lakins, and have no problem DFAing him. I do think Hyde likes him though. Does he like Wells better? I do. 
 

In the pen you list, Greene has an option, Sulser, Tate and Fry have options as well. I would like a little more flexibility, ideally, but that should do, especially with a 9-man pen. 

Abad very well could make the team as well, but I think because he needs to be added to the roster, he'll go down to the alternate site and await an opportunity like LeBlanc. But, they could choose to keep him and DFA Sulser.