McGregor on Rutschman: "They're throwing it (fastballs) by him right now"

[UMDTerrapins]

I don’t think anyone would argue that there’s a defensive position with a steeper learning curve than catcher when it comes to the amateur/professional leap. He’s got a lot more on his plate than Vaughn, or even Witt. 

[survivedc]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Yep, I’m not sure if the organization has ever made a mistake(s) as large as not trading Manny or Britton after 2016.

I get it, they thought they could win in 2017 but that was always a poor decision.

Trading those 2 at the peak of their value could have netted us a tremendous return.  Those are the types of trade that catapult your organization for years if you make the right moves.

Saying Manny should have been traded after 2016 takes a bit of hindsight, I think, while most of us were calling for Brittons trade at that time. 
 

Manny was a player to build around.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, survivedc said:

Saying Manny should have been traded after 2016 takes a bit of hindsight, I think, while most of us were calling for Brittons trade at that time. 
 

Manny was a player to build around.

It depends.  If you had told us that the O's weren't going to extend Manny more of us would have been in favor of trading him.  I think by that point the O's knew they weren't going to extend him.

[webbrick2010]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

That's fine, everyone can have an opinion, but I think some of statements were over the top especially about Rutschman's age and level considering COVID lost a year for everyone.

Catcher is one of the most important defensive positions on the field because he's the field general and he's involved in every pitch. Saying that, if I had equal talent of players and had to choose between a C and SS, I would choose the SS. 

Time will tell whether Rutschman was the right choice, but if Abrams or Witt or someone else becomes a better overall player, it certainly won't be the first time the #1 overall pick was not the best player in the draft when it was all said and done.

I wonder does this really hold true if someone did and exhaustive data analysis?

Seems to me when a stud starting pitcher signs a free agent contract for 100's of millions of dollars the team doesn't go after his catcher.

It seems like catcher is an important position, yet many championship teams (all the O's teams from the 60's thru 80's) seem to have had journeyman catchers

My comment about age was just when your are an advanced college bat expected to move rapidly thru the minors and be ready for the majors in 18 months, losing a year is likely losing a year of your physical prime. I don't think it was as important for a CJ Abrams who just lost his age 19 season that would have been in high A, perhaps AA and has a longer time frame for making it to the majors

[Moose Milligan]

16 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

I wonder does this really hold true if someone did and exhaustive data analysis?

Seems to me when a stud starting pitcher signs a free agent contract for 100's of millions of dollars the team doesn't go after his catcher.

It seems like catcher is an important position, yet many championship teams (all the O's teams from the 60's thru 80's) seem to have had journeyman catchers

My comment about age was just when your are an advanced college bat expected to move rapidly thru the minors and be ready for the majors in 18 months, losing a year is likely losing a year of your physical prime. I don't think it was as important for a CJ Abrams who just lost his age 19 season that would have been in high A, perhaps AA and has a longer time frame for making it to the majors

I think your statement about many championship teams having journeyman catchers and then cherrypicking the O's catchers as an example is a bit odd.

Rick Dempsey was, by all accounts, a fine defensive catcher.  Elrod Hendricks was supposedly a very good defender, too, as was Etchebarren.  Those guys might not have been Johnny Bench but they were good defenders from what I've read over the years (I'm sure some of our elder statesmen here will correct me if I'm wrong).

You can win with a poor defensive catcher...you can also win with a poor defensive shortstop, I mean look at the Yankees and Jeter.  But it's an important defensive position, and Tony is correct..they're involved on every pitch and they're more or less the field general for the defense.  

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

I think your statement about many championship teams having journeyman catchers and then cherrypicking the O's catchers as an example is a bit odd.

Rick Dempsey was, by all accounts, a fine defensive catcher.  Elrod Hendricks was supposedly a very good defender, too, as was Etchebarren.  Those guys might not have been Johnny Bench but they were good defenders from what I've read over the years (I'm sure some of our elder statesmen here will correct me if I'm wrong).

You can win with a poor defensive catcher...you can also win with a poor defensive shortstop, I mean look at the Yankees and Jeter.  But it's an important defensive position, and Tony is correct..they're involved on every pitch and they're more or less the field general for the defense.  

Unless you have a short stop that takes it upon themselves to call the pitches.

 

[Sports Guy]

54 minutes ago, survivedc said:

Saying Manny should have been traded after 2016 takes a bit of hindsight, I think, while most of us were calling for Brittons trade at that time. 
 

Manny was a player to build around.

No hindsight..they had already tried to sign him and failed.  They weren’t going to do it.

If you want to say they should have made a run at signing him before trading him after 2016, that’s fine but they already failed at that.

 

[Sports Guy]

I’m perfectly fine with saying the C position is overrated.

I will take at least 3 positions over C.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m perfectly fine with saying the C position is overrated.

I will take at least 3 positions over C.

So will I if I can count starting pitcher three times.

[Moose Milligan]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Unless you have a short stop that takes it upon themselves to call the pitches.

 

Yeah, he would be the one exception.  

[DrungoHazewood]

48 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

It seems like catcher is an important position, yet many championship teams (all the O's teams from the 60's thru 80's) seem to have had journeyman catchers.

I've seen some preliminary data suggesting that Andy Etchebarren was an excellent framing catcher.  Although that same study says Dempsey was poor, and Elrod didn't play enough to make the list.

Perhaps much of the perceived mediocre-ness of some catchers is because of the inability to capture value in previous metrics.  Of course because it couldn't be quantified there were probably any number of catchers whose reputations won't match future calculations of their value. Like maybe Dempsey.

[Tony-OH]

52 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

I wonder does this really hold true if someone did and exhaustive data analysis?

Seems to me when a stud starting pitcher signs a free agent contract for 100's of millions of dollars the team doesn't go after his catcher.

It seems like catcher is an important position, yet many championship teams (all the O's teams from the 60's thru 80's) seem to have had journeyman catchers

My comment about age was just when your are an advanced college bat expected to move rapidly thru the minors and be ready for the majors in 18 months, losing a year is likely losing a year of your physical prime. I don't think it was as important for a CJ Abrams who just lost his age 19 season that would have been in high A, perhaps AA and has a longer time frame for making it to the majors

Actually, the orioles had very good defensive catchers during this span and put a priority of defense over offense. Etchebarren and Dempsey were two key players during their World Series teams because of their plus defense.

[Tony-OH]

1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I've seen some preliminary data suggesting that Andy Etchebarren was an excellent framing catcher.  Although that same study says Dempsey was poor, and Elrod didn't play enough to make the list.

Perhaps much of the perceived mediocre-ness of some catchers is because of the inability to capture value in previous metrics.  Of course because it couldn't be quantified there were probably any number of catchers whose reputations won't match future calculations of their value. Like maybe Dempsey.

I wonder how they could determine framing of catchers without pitch data location?

[DrungoHazewood]

31 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m perfectly fine with saying the C position is overrated.

I will take at least 3 positions over C.

I wonder if teams are already projecting a date when robot umps start calling balls and strikes, and are planning to ignore framing and similar value?  The Molinas active during that transition would see their value drop by 2-3 wins a year overnight. And the Ryan Doumits of the world could see their value go up by at least as much.  It will be a great reckoning.

[DrungoHazewood]

3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I wonder how they could determine framing of catchers without pitch data location?

Basically looking at pitchers' results across different catchers and comparing run values of the differences in K/BB.  There were two methods but this describes the more accurate of them:

Another way to do this is take all of the games where McLain pitched to Freehan over his career, and compare that to the games McLain pitched without Freehan (both to Tiger backups, and after he moved on to other teams. An advantages of this approach is the increased sample size of comparison. Disadvantages are that a pitcher's ability is not a constant over his career (the catcher who caught Frank Tanana for the Angels will look a lot better in this metric than the one who caught him for the Tigers). In addition, strikeout averages can change quite a bit over time. Limiting the comparison to a single season minimizes the problem of league changes and pitcher ability changes.

Once you have the number of extra walks and strikeouts for each catcher, multiply each by .22 to get a run value. This is based on a walk being worth +.33 runs, a strikeout -.11, and an average plate appearance +.11. Turning a walk into an average plate appearance has the opposite value of turning a strikeout into an average plate appearance.