More on Roberts and Chicago

[Frobby]

I'd sacrifice a lot for a guaranteed a WS trophy. 10 years below .500? Done.

Unfortunately that's not what the O's have to offer.

What the O's can offer is a means to increase the Cubs' odds of winning the World Series from like 10.0% to 10.1%.

I don't know if I'd say it's quite that small a differential, but you are certainly right that it's not very big.

[Bloopandablast]

I don't disagree that the team's history shouldn't influence management to make rash, short term moves. But whether it will is another story. And no it's not just a media thing. I bet you that most Cub fans would gladly trade a stretch of five to ten good seasons for one World Series trophy at this point.

A World Series trophy would be very nice. I was living overseas when the 2003 fiasco happened. I had plane tix and world series tix lined up in order to experience a World Series in Wrigley.

I do not see Hendry being a panic guy. He just got a 4 year extension and realizes that although the nucleus is good and veteran there are some young players contributing as well (Soto front and center), Theriot and some key pitching as well. So he will be able to plug and play for a few seasons. Bavasi was in full panic mode last spring and you see where that got him.

Some of this has been directed to Dave so pardon me for interjecting.

I do not think the Cubs are looking to "push trade" Rich Hill. If he fit in a deal then he would get moved and clearly with his control issues of last year his value has gone down.

I see the teams being problematic for matching up just as many of the OH regulars do too. I think one of the only ways it could get done is if the Cubs moved Theriot and Fontenot in the deal and then filled SS from the FA ranks. There would likely have to be other pieces in the deal from both sides. A young arm from the Cubs for example and a Relief pitcher from the O's.

I realize that Theriot's power numbers and SB success rate will likely never be that of BRob, but he is younger, cheaper and has a great OBP. You guys know Fontenot from his days in your system, but I have to say he played great down the stretch and had an outstanding year for a part-time player. Whether the O's can ever get your arms around him as a full time player or not remains to be seen.

Cedeno has been discussed ad nauseum on this board, and while I like what he did (on the whole) for last year I would not put him forward as a solution to the SS hole you have (although you could dig up a post about that last year ).

[waroriole]

The Rangers felt the same way, and when they moved Soriano out of the leadoff spot they were "rewarded" with the worst two offensive seasons of his career (not counting his rookie year in NY, when he was also out of the leadoff spot)... in the best hitting environment he's ever played in.

Well, then 8/136 seems like a bad deal for a power guy that has to hit leadoff to be successful, who is not a leadoff hitter.

[davearm]

Well, then 8/136 seems like a bad deal for a power guy that has to hit leadoff to be successful, who is not a leadoff hitter.

Soriano's deal is bad, although not for the reason you mentioned.

You sound as though having him bat first is a liability. Far from it.

If we could find a place to filter the stats to just the guys around baseball that hit leadoff almost exclusively, I think you'd find a measure like RC/27 or EqA would place Soriano in the top 5 or so.

Everyone here seems to agree that Roberts is an elite, top-5 in baseball caliber leadoff hitter, so let's just look at that heads-up comparison:

3-year RC/27 scores (from fangraphs):

Soriano: 7.10, 6.84, 6.62

Roberts: 5.11, 6.61, 6.67

3-year EqA scores (from baseballprospectus):

Soriano: .304, .292, .293

Roberts: .276, .298, .303

As you can see things are pretty close; which stat you prefer dictates which guy has a slight edge.

[waroriole]

Soriano's deal is bad, although not for the reason you mentioned.

You sound as though having him bat first is a liability. Far from it.

If we could find a place to filter the stats to just the guys around baseball that hit leadoff almost exclusively, I think you'd find a measure like RC/27 or EqA would place Soriano in the top 5 or so.

Everyone here seems to agree that Roberts is an elite, top-5 in baseball caliber leadoff hitter, so let's just look at that heads-up comparison:

3-year RC/27 scores (from fangraphs):

Soriano: 7.10, 6.84, 6.62

Roberts: 5.11, 6.61, 6.67

3-year EqA scores (from baseballprospectus):

Soriano: .304, .292, .293

Roberts: .276, .298, .303

As you can see things are pretty close; which stat you prefer dictates which guy has a slight edge.

My point is that Soriano becomes more worthy of his contract if he gets the idea that he has to bat leadoff out of his head. When you combine that with BRob leading off I think the Cubs have a much more formidable lineup.

[Tx Oriole]

Well Dave i was hoping ot see baseball hsitory. I wanted the Cubs to go to the WS and win it. Oh well.

[JakeeO]

During the heat of the trade talk last year, I saw Brian Roberts in O'Hare airport in Chicago. So I don't know how far apart these two teams really were...

[davearm]

My point is that Soriano becomes more worthy of his contract if he gets the idea that he has to bat leadoff out of his head. When you combine that with BRob leading off I think the Cubs have a much more formidable lineup.

The Cubs' 2Bs collectively went .300/.378/.458/.836 (courtesy baseball-reference).

Roberts went .296/.378/.450/.828.

Ignoring the batting order issue for a moment (which studies have shown is mostly unimportant in the first place), the notion of a "much more formidable lineup" with Roberts is a significant overstatement when you consider the level of production that Roberts would be replacing.

That said, the rumblings are that Cubs want another LH bat in the lineup, and that moving Soriano down is, at a minimum, being discussed internally. Getting Roberts, making DeRosa the primary RF, and using Fukudome in a CF platoon would be one way to facilitate these objectives, I suppose.

[waroriole]

The Cubs' 2Bs collectively went .300/.378/.458/.836 (courtesy baseball-reference).

Roberts went .296/.378/.450/.828.

Ignoring the batting order issue for a moment (which studies have shown is mostly unimportant in the first place), the notion of a "much more formidable lineup" with Roberts is a significant overstatement when you consider the level of production that Roberts would be replacing.

That said, the rumblings are that Cubs want another LH bat in the lineup, and that moving Soriano down is, at a minimum, being discussed internally. Getting Roberts, making DeRosa the primary RF, and using Fukudome in a CF platoon would be one way to facilitate these objectives, I suppose.

You know the Cubs much better than me, but I would be surprised to see the 2B production remain the same. However, Roberts should continue to hit at the same clip. Either way, I'd rather see Roberts given an extension.

[Dipper9]

The Cubs offer did not impress me last year, and the thought of going through this again does not interest me at all. Pick another team to deal with, or extend the guy, but the Cubs are the not the landing spot for Roberts.

[Frobby]

Soriano's deal is bad, although not for the reason you mentioned.

You sound as though having him bat first is a liability. Far from it.

If we could find a place to filter the stats to just the guys around baseball that hit leadoff almost exclusively, I think you'd find a measure like RC/27 or EqA would place Soriano in the top 5 or so.

Everyone here seems to agree that Roberts is an elite, top-5 in baseball caliber leadoff hitter, so let's just look at that heads-up comparison:

3-year RC/27 scores (from fangraphs):

Soriano: 7.10, 6.84, 6.62

Roberts: 5.11, 6.61, 6.67

3-year EqA scores (from baseballprospectus):

Soriano: .304, .292, .293

Roberts: .276, .298, .303

As you can see things are pretty close; which stat you prefer dictates which guy has a slight edge.

It seems to me these stats can be a bit misleading when it comes to leadoff hitters. For example, for RC/27 purposes a HR is just as valuable when it comes from the leadoff spot with nobody on base as it would be if the hitter was hitting cleanup and batting with 2 runners on. Instinctively, for a leadoff hitter OBP is a little more important, relative to SLG, than it would be for a guy batting further down in the lineup. I'm not saying these differences are huge -- they probably aren't. But as between two guys with the exact same RC/27, I might prefer the guy whose OBP is higher to be batting leadoff.

[davearm]

It seems to me these stats can be a bit misleading when it comes to leadoff hitters. For example, for RC/27 purposes a HR is just as valuable when it comes from the leadoff spot with nobody on base as it would be if the hitter was hitting cleanup and batting with 2 runners on. Instinctively, for a leadoff hitter OBP is a little more important, relative to SLG, than it would be for a guy batting further down in the lineup. I'm not saying these differences are huge -- they probably aren't. But as between two guys with the exact same RC/27, I might prefer the guy whose OBP is higher to be batting leadoff.

If Roberts' advantage in OBP overshadowed Soriano's advantage in SLG, we'd see that reflected in the RC/27 numbers, wouldn't we?

It seems as though you're saying you'd prefer a pound of feathers to a pound of iron.

[Tony-OH]

If Roberts' advantage in OBP overshadowed Soriano's advantage in SLG, we'd see that reflected in the RC/27 numbers, wouldn't we?

It seems as though you're saying you'd prefer a pound of feathers to a pound of iron.

I basically agree with you Dave and don't think we match up anyways, but I do have a source telling me both Chicago teams are going to be after Roberts this winter. Guess we'll see, but I agree that the Cubs really don't need Roberts especially when you look at what they already have.

[Baltimoron]

If Roberts' advantage in OBP overshadowed Soriano's advantage in SLG, we'd see that reflected in the RC/27 numbers, wouldn't we?

Not really.

RC/27 is a stat created by Bill James to measure how many runs a lineup of 9 of the same individual would score in a game.

Frobby's point goes to a different question, which is all else equal (as is basically the case with similar RC/27), do you want more OBP or more SLG in the leadoff spot?

And the answer is more OBP. Its not a huge difference, but given the choice, you want the OBP up top. Its also slightly more so in the NL with a manager who typically hits his pitchers ninth.

[Frobby]

If Roberts' advantage in OBP overshadowed Soriano's advantage in SLG, we'd see that reflected in the RC/27 numbers, wouldn't we?

It seems as though you're saying you'd prefer a pound of feathers to a pound of iron.

No, I don't think so. RC/27 calculations are based on the average value of an event. For example, a HR is worth a certain amount because that is the average number of runs it generates. There are imbedded assumptions about the average number of runners on base, etc., based on overall norms. But a leadoff hitter is going to bat with fewer runners on base (on average), so a HR on average is going to be less valuable from the leadoff guy than from some other position. To take another example, a guy on 2B with nobody out is more valuable than a guy on 2B with 2 out. So stolen bases have more value from a leadoff hitter than a guy further down the lineup.

As I said, I'm not claiming these effects are huge. After all, a leadoff hitter doesn't lead off every time he's up. But he leads off more than anybody else does.