2022 early look top prospects

[joelala]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-conversation-with-orioles-general-manager-mike-elias/#:~:text=Elias%3A “I think we concentrate,can change quite a bit.

Prospects Live very high on Jones and has Berry way down at 20.  This Fangraphs interview with Elias is interesting because he really talks up taking HS kids with a higher chance of getting a "prodigious" talent there.

 

[baltfan]

Holliday seems to fit what Elias would do if he were to seek a discount. He plays a premium position and projections for where he would go otherwise would allow for a good discount.  Similar to Correa. 

[sportsfan8703]

I think you gotta go Druw Jones and then make things work with the comp picks. The year we took AR we still got Gunnar. Druw Jones doesn’t cost us that. 

[sportsfan8703]

We have some serious draft ammo,

1:1

Comp A #1

2:1

Comp B #2

3:1

That’s 5 picks in the top 100.  After watching the crop of bats drafted last year and seeing what they’re doing in A+ ball already, I’m saying let’s go bat heavy again.  Stick to what you’re good at.

 

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I think you gotta go Druw Jones and then make things work with the comp picks. The year we took AR we still got Gunnar. Druw Jones doesn’t cost us that. 

[Hazmat]

Might there be some savings if we drafted Fabian with one of our comp picks?  Supposedly, we were looking at him last year.  He's technically a redshirt junior but I doubt he would want to return for his senior year.

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Hazmat said:

Might there be some savings if we drafted Fabian with one of our comp picks?  Supposedly, we were looking at him last year.  He's technically a redshirt junior but I doubt he would want to return for his senior year.

He's in a tough spot but he turned down 2M last year.  Going to be tough to go underslot on him.  He and his agent need to save face.   He could actually be an overslot in the comp round as the O's reportedly would have signed him for 3M if the Red Sox had not taken him.   Risky strategy but I wonder if toolsy CF Fabian  plays into whether or not they take Jones #1.  

A Berry #1 pick will be very unpopular but I could see a #1 Berry, #33 Fabian type of draft.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

He's in a tough spot but he turned down 2M last year.  Going to be tough to go underslot on him.  He and his agent need to save face.   He could actually be an overslot in the comp round as the O's reportedly would have signed him for 3M if the Red Sox had not taken him.   Risky strategy but I wonder if toolsy CF Fabian  plays into whether or not they take Jones #1.  

A Berry #1 pick will be very unpopular but I could see a #1 Berry, #33 Fabian type of draft.

Which would suck

[RZNJ]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Which would suck

On the face of it, it would suck.   Would it suck if Berry and Fabian turn into Lance Berkman and George Springer?

From everything I read, I'm with you as far as Andruw Jones at #1 and go from there but I place a little more faith in Elias no matter what he does.   The real judgement comes years later.

[WI O’s Fan]

I would still go with the best college bat  Brooks Lee-  improved on w/k rate   ( 1-1 if you subtract intentional passes).  His ops is 1.170 and is a coach on the field.   Good fielder- may stick at short. Very similar makeup to Rutchman.

 

Edited May 24, 2022 by WI O’s Fan

[sportsfan8703]

I think you gotta take Jones 1:1. Get the best talent.  There are no guarantees about what falls to you later in the draft. Do you really think they had Willems at the top of their board to give 800k overslot to last year in the 8th rd?  I’m not passing on Druw Jones for Creed Willems in the 8th rd. 
 

Take the bird in hand(Jones) and see how the board falls. 

[RZNJ]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I think you gotta take Jones 1:1. Get the best talent.  There are no guarantees about what falls to you later in the draft. Do you really think they had Willems at the top of their board to give 800k overslot to last year in the 8th rd?  I’m not passing on Druw Jones for Creed Willems in the 8th rd. 
 

Take the bird in hand(Jones) and see how the board falls. 

I'm sticking with my theory.   If the Orioles pass on Jones then he wasn't #1 on their board.   At best, he was in a group of 4-5 players and they went with the one that saved them the most.   What I really think is that they liked Kjerstad the best at the spot they picked him and although it's a little harder to believe Cowser, same thing.    If they choose Berry or Lee I think it's because they think those two guys are more likely to provide ML value than the HS guys.    Not saying the HS guys aren't all good bets.  Just that the college guys might be considered better bets in some eyes.    Who knows, maybe Elias will surprise us and take Jones 1:1.    I'm just trying to think along if they wind up going in another direction.

The funny thing is that Elias talks about how he likes drafting HS players and how he is proud of his track record in picking HS players.    What reservations did he have with Zac Veen, Jordan Lawler, Kahlil Watson, etc?    I don't know but I don't believe that #1 issues was the amount of the signing bonus.     I think Elias would have been happy to pay full slot for a player they really, really liked at that spot if that's what it took.

[seak05]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I'm sticking with my theory.   If the Orioles pass on Jones then he wasn't #1 on their board.   At best, he was in a group of 4-5 players and they went with the one that saved them the most.   What I really think is that they liked Kjerstad the best at the spot they picked him and although it's a little harder to believe Cowser, same thing.    If they choose Berry or Lee I think it's because they think those two guys are more likely to provide ML value than the HS guys.    Not saying the HS guys aren't all good bets.  Just that the college guys might be considered better bets in some eyes.    Who knows, maybe Elias will surprise us and take Jones 1:1.    I'm just trying to think along if they wind up going in another direction.

This tbh. If Jones is clearly #1 on their board, they will take him. If he's not clearly #1, they'll take a guy that they have in the same group, who will also allow them to spread out money. It's probably best to think of the Orioles board as groupings rather then a straight ordered list

[Sports Guy]

Here’s the simple thing.  There is no way they have a several players rated the same.  They, like every other team in sports, have a draft board and a ranking.  
 

Whoever is 1 on that board should be the pick.  

[OsFanSinceThe80s]