My 21st Century Orioles All Star Team

[foxfield]

Not to take away from Corey Patterson, but when you look at Cedric Mullins and what he has done this season.  (Currently 2.9 WAR).  You could at least make an argument that he belongs on both CF lists now...and could very well statistically exceed Patterson by year end.

I dont mean to extrapolate SSS, but simply to look at how amazing the first half has been for Mullins.  It is extraordinary.  

Thanks for this Frobby.

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, foxfield said:

Not to take away from Corey Patterson, but when you look at Cedric Mullins and what he has done this season.  (Currently 2.9 WAR).  You could at least make an argument that he belongs on both CF lists now...and could very well statistically exceed Patterson by year end.

I dont mean to extrapolate SSS, but simply to look at how amazing the first half has been for Mullins.  It is extraordinary.  

Thanks for this Frobby.

I’m hoping this will be a list we can update from time to time when warranted.   You’re right that Mullins could certainly take a run at the single season list if he continues to have a good season.    The career list might be a stretch for this season unless he maintains his current pace all season, but in another year or two it wouldn’t be that hard to replace Patterson in the no. 2 slot.   

[Moose Milligan]

Frobacito, where are the pitchers?  Or did you just get too dismayed when compiling your list?

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

Frobacito, where are the pitchers?  Or did you just get too dismayed when compiling your list?

Was away on an alleged vacation last week. Ended up working 15-20 hours instead of screwing around looking at our pitchers.   

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, Frobby said:

Was away on an alleged vacation last week. Ended up working 15-20 hours instead of screwing around looking at our pitchers.   

So you're saying a REAL vacation for you would be screwing around on the OH from a beachfront property somewhere?

[Frobby]

17 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

So you're saying a REAL vacation for you would be screwing around on the OH from a beachfront property somewhere?

Exactly.   Well, a couple of hours a day wouldn’t stop me from hitting the beach, reading a few books etc.   I’m awake 2-3 hours before my (adult) children in the morning anyway.  They were all with us and it was great except I ended up working quite a bit.   Occupational hazard for a lawyer - should have been a dentist.  

[Moose Milligan]

42 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Exactly.   Well, a couple of hours a day wouldn’t stop me from hitting the beach, reading a few books etc.   I’m awake 2-3 hours before my (adult) children in the morning anyway.  They were all with us and it was great except I ended up working quite a bit.   Occupational hazard for a lawyer - should have been a dentist.  

You pick inherently unlikable professions.

[Frobby]

 

Orioles All-21^st Century Pitching Staff – Single Season

After a long delay, here is my single-season Orioles all-century pitcher list.   I lined it up as two staffs, each with 5 starters and 7 relievers.   As before, a pitcher can only make the list once.

First Team Rotation

 1.  Erik Bedard 2007: 13-5, 182.0 IP, 3.16 ERA, 146 ERA+, 1.09 WHIP, 10.9 K/0, 3. 9 K/BB, 5.7 rWAR.

2.  Mike Mussina 2000: 11-15, 237.2 IP, 3.79 ERA, 125 ERA+., 1.19 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, 4.6 K/BB, 5.7 rWAR

3.  John Means 2019: 12-11, 155.0 IP, 3.60 ERA, 130 ERA+, 1.14 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, 2.2 K/BB 4.8 rWAR

4.  Jeremy Guthrie 2010: 11-14, 209.1 IP, 3.83 ERA, 110 ERA+, 1.16 WHIP, 5.1 K/9, 2.4 K/BB, 4.5 rWAR

5.  Chris Tillman 2013: 16-7, 206.1 IP, 3.71 ERA, 110 ERA+, 1.22 WHIP, 7.8 K/9, 2.6 K/BB, 3.7 rWAR

 Comments: You can have a good debate about Bedard vs. Mussina as no. 1.   Bedard’s season was more spectacular, but it got cut short by injury so if you are giving marks for durability you can argue for Mussina.   Means sneaks in at no. 3 despite not throwing enough innings to qualify.   Both Guthrie and Tillman had multiple good seasons and it was hard to pick which is best.   It’s kind of a sad statement that of my top 5 choices, only one pitcher won more than 13 games, and two had a losing season.   Just shows what a bad team we’ve had and how few truly great pitching seasons we’ve had in this century.

Second Team Rotation

 6.  Rodrigo Lopez 2002: 15-9, 196.1 IP, 3.57 ERA, 120 ERA+, 1.19 WHIP, 6.2 K/9, 2.2 K/BB, 3.7 rWAR

7.  Kevin Gausman 2016: 9-12, 179.2 IP, 3.61 ERA, 119 ERA+, 1.28 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 3.7 K/BB, 3.9 rWAR

8.  Wei-Yin Chen 2015: 11-8, 191.1 IP, 3.34 ERA, 123 ERA+, 1.22 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 3.7 K/BB, 3.4 rWAR

9.  Sidney Ponson 2003: 14-6, 148.0 IP, 3.77 ERA, 119 ERA+, 6.1 K/9, 2.3 K/BB, 3.4 rWAR

10.  Bruce Chen 2005: 13-10, 197.1 IP, 3.83 ERA, 113 ERA+, 1.27 WHIP, 6.1 K/9, 2.1 K/BB, 3.0 rWAR

 Comments:  On the basis of ERA+, you could argue for any of these being better than Guthrie and Tillman’s seasons that I put in the top 5.   But I have a bias in favor of innings eaters.    Lopez had a couple of seasons worth considering.   Ponson’s 2003 is oft-forgotten – we traded him at the deadline in a deal that didn’t really pan out, but he was spectacular to that point. 

Honorable mentions: Jose Mercedes 2000, Pat Hentgen 2003, Miguel Gonzalez 2012, Jason Hammel 2012, Bud Norris 2014.

 

First Team Bullpen

 1.  Zach Britton 2016: 2-1, 47/47 saves, 67.0 IP, 0.54 ERA, 803 ERA+, 0.84 WHIP, 9.9 K/9, 4.1 K/BB, 4.1 rWAR.

2.  Jim Johnson 2012: 2-1, 51/54 saves, 68.2 IP, 2.49 ERA, 170 ERA+, 1.02 WHIP, 5.4 K/9, 2.7 K/BB, 2.4 rWAR

3.  B.J. Ryan 2004: 4-6, 3 saves, 87.0 IP, 2.28 ERA, 200 ERA+, 1.14 WHIP, 12.6 K/9, 3.5 K/BB, 3.4 rWAR

4.  Darren O’Day 2015: 6-2, 6 saves, 65.1 IP, 1.52 ERA, 272 ERA+, 0.93 WHIP, 11.3 K/9, 5.9 K/BB, 2.7 rWAR

5.  Buddy Groom 2002: 3-2, 2 saves, 62.0 IP, 1.60 ERA, 270 ERA+, 0.90 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, 4.0 K/BB, 2.8 rWAR.

6.  Brad Brach 2016: 10-4, 2 saves, 79.0 IP, 2.05 ERA, 210 ERA+, 1.04 WHIP, 10.5 K/9, 3.7 WHIP, 2.4 rWAR

7.  Mychal Givens 2017: 8-1, 0 saves, 78.2 IP, 2.75 ERA, 158 ERA+, 1.04 WHIP, 10.1 K/9, 3.5 K/BB, 2.3 rWAR

 Comments: Both Jim Johnson and BJ Ryan had one really excellent season as the closer and one as a set-up man.   In Johnson’s case I chose his 2012 closer season over his 2011 set-up year; in Ryan’s case I took his 2004 set-up season over his 2005 closer season.   Even though Johnson’s 2012 season doesn’t quite measure up by ERA+ or rWAR, I will never forget how clutch he was that season and that’s why I ranked it no. 2.   O’Day, Brach and Givens all had multiple good seasons.   Groom was really a one-hit wonder, but it was a heckuva hit.   Saving the best for last, it still amazes me what Britton did in 2016.  803 ERA+!

Second Team Bullpen

 8.  Pedro Strop 2012: 5-2, 3 saves, 66.1 IP, 2.44 ERA, 173 ERA+, 1.34 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 1.6 K/BB, 2.4 rWAR.

9.  Chris Ray 2006: 4-4, 33/38 saves, 66.0 IP, 2.73 ERA, 167 ERA+, 1.09 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, 1.9 K/BB, 2.0 rWAR.

10.  Koji Uehara 2011: 1-1, 0 saves, 47.0 IP, 1.72 ERA, 246 ERA+, 0.70 WHIP, 11.9 K/9, 7.8 K/BB, 1.9 rWAR

11.  Jorge Julio 2002: 5-6, 25/31 saves, 68.0 IP, 1.99 ERA, 217 ERA+, 1.21 WHIP, 7.3 K/9, 2.0 K/BB, 1.8 rWAR

12.  Tommy Hunter 2013: 6-5, 4 saves, 86.1 IP, 2.81 ERA, 145 ERA+, 0.99 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, 4.9 K/BB, 1.8 rWAR

13.  Troy Patton 2012: 1-0, 0 saves, 55.2 IP, 2.43 ERA, 175 ERA+, 1.02 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 4.0 K/BB, 1.8 rWAR

14.  George Sherrill 2008: 0-1, 20/23 saves, 41.1 IP, 2.40 ERA, 192 ERA+, 1.14 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, 3.0 K/BB, 1.7 rWAR

 Comments: I pretty much went in straight rWAR order here.   Koji and Flat Breezy might have been first team picks if they hadn’t been dealt at the deadline.   I was a little surprised at some of the names on this list, but that’s what happens when you aren’t that good a team.

Honorable mentions:  Kerry Ligtenberg 2003, Jamie Walker 2007, Richard Bleier 2017, Miguel Castro 2018.

Anything here you strongly disagree with?

 

 

[waroriole]

These are both just great lists!! Looks like a fun project to do. 
 

I’d swap Wei-Yin Chen for Guthrie on my first team. And how can you leave Koji off the first team.
 

I don’t think I appreciated just how dominant Britton was in 2016. Makes me want to scream at Buck all over again. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

This is the best summation on how mediocre the Orioles starting pitching has been this century. I never thought off the top of my head that 2019 John Means would rank third among best seasons by starters. But looking at the numbers, I can't disagree with the ranking.

Lets hope this list looks better when revisited in 2030. 

 

[Frobby]

If you thought the list of single-season pitchers was lame, wait until you see the career list.   Again, only 21^st Century stats count.   I’m going to list the starters in this post and comment on each one.   I’ll list the relievers in a later post.

 

The First Team Rotation

 1.  Erik Bedard, 40-34, 3.83 ERA, 658.0 IP, 118 ERA+, 1.34 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 2.5 K/BB, 12.8 rWAR – Not the most longevity, but he had the highest peak, and mustered a winning record despite pitching for terrible teams.

2.  Jeremy Guthrie, 47-65, 4.12 ERA, 983.1 IP, 107 ERA+, 1.27 WHIP, 5.5 K/9, 2.1 K.BB, 16.1 rWAR – Guthrie has the highest rWAR of any O’s starting pitcher in the 21^st Century, and was 3^rd in IP.   He had three really fine seasons, but somehow he never seemed to come away with the W.

3.  Chris Tillman, 74-60, 4.57 ERA, 1145.0 IP, 91 ERA+, 1.38 WHIP, 6.7 K/9, 1.9 K/BB, 8.9 rWAR – Tillman really had three careers with the Orioles: the getting his feet wet phase, the highly effective pitcher phase, and the pitching with a bum shoulder phase.  That middle phase coincided exactly hwith the O’s good five-year run.    In that stretch Tillman went 65-33, 108 ERA+, and was worth 12 rWAR.   That earns him the no. 3 slot despite his troubles before and after.   Most wins and IP of any O’s pitcher this century.

4.  Wei-Yin Chen, 48-32, 3.72 ERA, 706.2 IP, 110 ERA+, 1.25 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, 3.2 K/BB, 9.4 rWAR – Dan Duquette played it exactly right with Chen, getting four very good, healthy years from him at a low cost and letting someone else pay huge dollars for his crummy years.

5.  Kevin Gausman, 39-51, 4.22 ERA, 763.2 IP, 100 ERA+, 1.35 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 3.0 K/BB, 10.2 rWAR – Kind of a Jeremy Guthrie light, he never seemed to win as many games as he should considering his other numbers.

 

The Second Team Rotation

 6.  Rodrigo Lopez, 60-58, 4.72 ERA, 912.2 IP, 94 ERA+, 1.39 WHIP, 6.1 K/9, 2.2 K/BB, 9.3 rWAR – Lopez won 14+ games three times for the O’s, posting ERAs of 3.57 and 3.59 in two of those seasons.

7.  Sidney Ponson, 53-64, 4.84 ERA, 1030.1 IP, 93 ERA+, 5.6 K/9, 1.44 WHIP, 1.9 K/BB, 9.4 rWAR – Pitched the second-most innings of any Orioles pitcher this century.

8.  Miguel Gonzalez, 39-33, 3.82 ERA, 580.1 IP, 107 ERA+, 1.28 WHIP, 6.5 K/9, 2.2 K/BB, 7.3 rWAR – It’s pretty tempting to put him higher on the list due to his good rate stats, but he wasn’t that durable so I left him in his rWAR slot.    As usual, not getting his due respect.

9.   Dylan Bundy, 38-45, 4.67 ERA, 614.1 IP, 94 ERA+, 1.33 WHIP, 8.8 K/9, 2.9 K/BB, 7.2 rWAR – Such a shame that injuries took so much off his fastball.   He could have been so much higher on this list.

10.  John Means, 14-15, 3.97 ERA, 202.0 IP, 117 ERA+, 1.11 WHIP, 7.4 K/9, 2.0 K/BB, 5.6 rWAR --  I had a hard time deciding whether to include Means’ 2021 statistics to date, and if not, whether to put Mike Mussina (237.2 IP, 125 ERA+, 5.7 rWAR) here instead of Means.   I decided not to include his 2021 stats because the year isn’t over yet, but I put him in here anyway because he’s pretty sure to finish 2021 with a higher rWAR than Mussina’s.    In fact, he could be moving to the 7-8 spot on this list by then.

 

Dishonorable mentions: Daniel Cabrera (48-59, 841.1 IP, 88 ERA+, 5.4 rWAR), Jason Johnson (26-47, 624.2 IP, 93 ERA+, 4.0 rWAR).

[Frobby]

The first team bullpen is actually pretty strong.   I had to strain to fill the second team bullpen.

First Team Bullpen

1.  Zach Britton, 30-22, 139 saves, 3.22 ERA, 516.2 IP, 130 ERA+, 1.27 WHIP, 7.4 K/9, 2.2 K/BB, 10.9 rWAR – The stats above include Britton’s time as a starter.   As a reliever he had a 1.72 ERA for the O’s in 262 IP.   He was utterly dominant in 2014-16.

2.  Darren O’Day, 28-14, 19 saves, 2.40 ERA, 374.1 IP, 174 ERA+, 0.99 WHIP, 10.2 k/9, 2.5 k/bb, 11.3 rWAR – You can make a strong argument that O’Day deserves the top spot.  

3.  Brad Brach, 27-15, 32 saves, 2.99 ERA, 327.2 IP, 140 ERA+, 1.21 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, 2.6 K/BB, 6.0 rWAR – I could have gone a lot of ways with this choice.  The 3-6 slots are really close IMO.    But Brach has the lowest ERA, best ERA+, and had a knack for picking up wins.

4.  Jim Johnson, 18-26, 122 saves, 3.11 ERA, 400.0 IP, 1.23 WHIP, 6.0 K/9, 2.3 K/BB, 5.2 rWAR --  Johnson logged the most relief innings (397) of any pitcher this century.   He’s second to Britton in saves and logged 50+ saves twice.   He also had a couple of very good seasons as a setup man.  

5.  B.J. Ryan, 16-19, 3.54 ERA, 42 saves, 3.54 ERA, 379.1 IP, 127 ERA+, 1.31 WHIP, 11.0 K/9, 4.6 K/BB – BJ was stellar his final two seasons for the Orioles, first as a setup man, then as a closer.  

6.  Mychal Givens, 20-17, 3.32 ERA, 20 saves, 3.32 ERA, 336.0 IP, 131 ERA+, 1.14 WHIP, 10.9 K/9, 3.5 K/BB, 7.2 rWAR – Like I said, spots 3-6 were very close.   I put Givens at the low end of the group only because when Buck had Brach and Givens, he generally gave Brach the higher leverage spots.

7.  Buddy Groom, 15-13, 18 saves, 3.91 ERA, 285.1 IP, 115 ERA+, 1.29 WHIP, 6.7 K/9, 2.9 K/BB, 4.2 rWAR – Big drop off here, but every team needs a LOOGY, right?   And Groom is pretty high up on the IP list for O’s relievers this century.  

 

Second Team Bullpen

1.  Tommy Hunter, 21-20, 15 saves, 4.16 ERA, 407.0 IP, 100 ERA+, 1.25 WHIP, 5.8 K/9, 3.4 K/BB, 3.2 rWAR – Hunter made 31 starts in 2011-12.    Purely as a reliever, he posted a 3.08 ERA in 222 IP.

2.  Chris Ray, 10-17, 49 saves, 4.11 ERA, 192.2 IP, 110 ERA+, 1.37 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, 2.1 K/BB, 2.4 rWAR – Did OK until he developed elbow issues.

3.  Koji Uehara, 4-7, 13 saves, 3.03 ERA, 157.2 IP, 144 ERA+, 1.00 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, 6.6 K/BB, 4.6 rWAR – Koji only threw 91 innings for us as a reliever, which is why I don’t have him higher.   As a reliever for us, he had a 2.27 ERA and was worth 3.2 rWAR.

4.  Miguel Castro, 7-13, 3 saves, 4.06 ERA, 241.1 IP, 110 ERA+, 1.37 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, 1.5 K/BB, 3.5 rWAR – Pretty solid reliever who ate a lot of innings.

5.  Jorge Julio, 11-24, 83 saves, 4.20 ERA, 291.2 IP, 105 ERA+, 1.40 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 1.9 K/BB, 1.4 rWAR – He wasn’t very good, but he did rack up the third-most saves this century for any Orioles reliever.

6.  Troy Patton, 5-2, 0 saves, 3.26 ERA, 149.0 IP, 129 ERA+, 1.17 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 3.1 K/BB, 2.8 rWAR – Like I said, every bullpen has to have a LOOGY, right?   It was either Patton or Matusz.

7.  George Sherrill, 3-6, 51 saves, 3.71 ERA, 94.2 IP, 122 ERA+, 1.34 WHIP, 9.2 K/9, 2.1 K/BB, 1.8 rWAR – Like Koji, Flat Breezy didn’t pitch very much for us.   He was having a stellar season when we traded him.  

 

Honorable mentions: Brian Matusz, John Parrish, Rick Bauer.   Matusz and Parrish both did much better in the bullpen than as starters.   Bauer was mediocre but logged over 200 innings in our bullpen.

Anyone I forgot?   I was grasping at straws a little at the end.

[Spy Fox]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Anyone I forgot?   I was grasping at straws a little at the end.

This counts as grasping at straws, but Pedro Strop pitched a few more innings and had slightly better results than Sherrill, outside the saves. 

101 IP, 7-5, 3.30 ERA, 128 ERA+, 2.4 rWAR

[OriolesMagic83]

Bedard's #1 rotation spot with a 1.34 Whip is a highlight of why the O's have been mostly mediocre to bad for 20+ years.  There obviously was the short competitive window from 2012-2016, but the O's are arguably the worst mlb team this century.

[Frobby]

I’ll post the final numbers when the season ends, but Mullins 2021 is easily going to supplant Jones 2013 as the greatest season any Orioles’ CF has had in the 21st Century.   Mullins is also in a good position to bump Corey Patterson off the list as the second best career CF the O’s have had this century, but it will take him another decent season to do it. I’ll have more to say about it all when the final numbers are in.   

Well, anyone who thought about it probably realized some time ago that Mullins might pass Jones on this list.   But guess who else might sneak on?   Austin Hays.  As mentioned in the OP, LF has been a weak spot for the O’s this century, with Nolan Reimold 2009 and Luke Scott 2006 holding the two spots at 2.6 rWAR.   Hays is at 2.9 rWAR right now, and has more RBI than either Reimold or Scott and could pass Scott in homers as well (he’s already well beyond Reimold).   His OPS isn’t as good as those two but he’s much better defensively than either of them.  

We’ve got 2/3 of a good outfield.