Your initial 2021 draft grade

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Frobby said:

As I’ve said before, there’s no way the O’s went underslot because they thought one particular player would be there the next time they picked.   They might have hoped Bitsko would be there, but they don’t follow that strategy unless they’ve got multiple targets for the overslot money and are confident that they’ll have options they really like.  

Sure but they also likely had 1 or 2 guys in mind that really made it worth it to them to implement that strategy.  
 

They had fall back plans in case those guys were gone but had you told them Blitsko is definitely gone, I do wonder if they definitely go Kjerstad?  Personally I think they do because I think they valued him higher than everyone else.

[Ripken]

Usual disclaimers... they have far more information than us, these kids are in the franchise now so I hope they'll be great, it'll be years before we know, etc.  I gave it a D.  I would have basically done the exact opposite of what we did.  Taken a HS SS in round one and grabbed every arm I could find, possibly picking up a couple more bats along the way.  

As it stands now, if 2023 is the target, I think we could actually have a pretty good lineup by then.  We might be able to build a decent bullpen out of failed starters and random FAs.  The rotation scares me though.  GrayRod and Hall look great now but need to keep going.  Means might still be here and effective for a while.  I don't see anything else I'm too excited about with starters.  Maybe we'll get lucky and find someone in all those Day 3 kids.  Hopefully the Angelos boys are willing to spend to get legit pitching here because I don't think we have nearly enough. 

[LookinUp]

I don't think we took Cowser for savings. I think they took him for his risk profile. One of the top 2 college hitters. Defense plays in CF and definitely in LF/RF. 

[Flash- bd]

I have a feeling the Cowser pick was actually who they had first (or tied for first perhaps with someone a bit more expensive) on their board and people are underrating him. Best bat in the class, pure left-handed stroke, looks like he can stay in CF...I think people are perhaps undervaluing the quality of him because of 3-4-5 positions on websites draft rankings which in the end mean very little and are quite subjective. He's a pick when we were projected with him that sounded to me interesting...Watson for instance is someone people would've been more happy with and Cowser struck me as more interesting, honestly. Mayer went a pick before us and there were some questions about Lawlar's upside, no? And he's a bit off. 

 

Anyway, just throwing out a gut reaction that the Cowser pick will turn out to be a good one. I don't think the strategy to take hitters is such a bad one. It's looking very possible that none of Hays, Santander, Stewart, and Díaz turn out to be a good outfielder for a contending team, Mullins could very well be sold high before we start putting together a competitive team, Mountcastle is someone who might struggle to provide value given his lack of OB skills and the pressure that puts on his hit tool along with him not being able to play anything but premium bat positions...in short, we need bats. Let's hope Hjerstad, Rutchsman, (Henderson, Westburg) and Cowser are the heart of our lineup in our next contending team. 

[baltfan]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

As I’ve said before, there’s no way the O’s went underslot because they thought one particular player would be there the next time they picked.   They might have hoped Bitsko would be there, but they don’t follow that strategy unless they’ve got multiple targets for the overslot money and are confident that they’ll have options they really like.  

I agree that this is likely true, but there are only so many overslot guys that a team is willing to pay and they surely could be taken ahead of you.  I bet that was the case for the Orioles this year.  There had to be some high school guys that they were on but ended up not picking anyone that was likely substantially overslot.  

[baltfan]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Sure but they also likely had 1 or 2 guys in mind that really made it worth it to them to implement that strategy.  
 

They had fall back plans in case those guys were gone but had you told them Blitsko is definitely gone, I do wonder if they definitely go Kjerstad?  Personally I think they do because I think they valued him higher than everyone else.

I will say that I was far from impressed with Austin Martin in the Futures game.  His swing was really weak and he looked awful at shortstop.  Meyer looked good though.

[TommyPickles]

I don't know enough about these players to vote, but it seems odd that 4 of our top 5 picks were outfielders... Seems like pitching and middle infield are far more pressing needs for this organization.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, TommyPickles said:

I don't know enough about these players to vote, but it seems odd that 4 of our top 5 picks were outfielders... Seems like pitching and middle infield are far more pressing needs for this organization.

We have a ton of middle infielders in the pipeline, though.   

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, baltfan said:

I will say that I was far from impressed with Austin Martin in the Futures game.  His swing was really weak and he looked awful at shortstop.  Meyer looked good though.

Meyer was the pitcher I would have drafted.  I think Lacy had the slightly higher upside but I liked Meyer’s profile better to be an impact starter and stay a starter.

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

I don't know enough about these players to vote, but it seems odd that 4 of our top 5 picks were outfielders... Seems like pitching and middle infield are far more pressing needs for this organization.

Well, you don’t draft for need and just because you feel pitching may be more needed, doesn’t mean the pitchers available were ranked higher.
 

I would assume you don’t want to draft someone that they don’t think is that good just because “he’s a pitcher”.

[baltimoreO's22]

I gave it a D. To all the people saying, that Elias and them have more info and have a plan, etc, that doesn't mean that they are going to be successful with their data and plan. I would imagine that every front office has a plan and executes it to the best of their ability, and yet there are certain guys that aren't cut out for the job and end up never turning their franchises into winners. 

Sure they have more information than we do, and sure no one on this board knows what if any restrictions the ownership has put on Elias, but when you have the worst pitching staff in the majors and on paper don't draft any guys to help with that issue, that is a problem in my eyes. 

Now that all of the players are in this organization, I hope that every single one of them is an impact player, and I will root for them to become that. However, that doesn't mean that I have to agree with what direction this franchise is going in terms of building their farm system. Now, if they go after a bunch of J2 arms and are able to build the farm that way, that will change my opinion on how they draft. 

[Hallas]

I like a lot of the players taken day 1 and 2 and I generally like taking college hitters.  Day 3 is perplexing to me though.   A few covid sophomores, but also a ton of college seniors with a lot of mileage on their arms and no leverage in contract negotiations.  It seems like college players are still generally better bets to perform in the majors but I really don't like taking pitchers that are frequently overworked, and especially not seniors.  And if we went underslot with our first round pick, who are our overslot players?  Willems and Trimble?  I don't see a whole lot else.

 

I will say that the existence of draft eligible sophomores is a new wrinkle that is probably really hard to make adjustments for unless you know more than I do.  So I don't want to grade too harshly, but I gave a B-, and that's with a lot of benefit of doubt given.

[Aristotelian]

2 hours ago, Ripken said:

As it stands now, if 2023 is the target, I think we could actually have a pretty good lineup by then.  We might be able to build a decent bullpen out of failed starters and random FAs.  The rotation scares me though.  GrayRod and Hall look great now but need to keep going.  Means might still be here and effective for a while.  I don't see anything else I'm too excited about with starters.  Maybe we'll get lucky and find someone in all those Day 3 kids.  Hopefully the Angelos boys are willing to spend to get legit pitching here because I don't think we have nearly enough. 

Without even going into the new draftees, there's Bradish, Baumann, Knight, and Kevin Smith. There's still time for Kremer and Akin to turn things around. Zimmerman looks like a solid option for back end. As bad as the big league club has been, I'm not all that down on our organizational pitching. 

[survivedc]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

Without even going into the new draftees, there's Bradish, Baumann, Knight, and Kevin Smith. There's still time for Kremer and Akin to turn things around. Zimmerman looks like a solid option for back end. As bad as the big league club has been, I'm not all that down on our organizational pitching. 

Agree on this. If we are looking for back end starters there is a good collection of guys in the minors that have a chance to become that. 
 

I like the first two picks (esp the 2nd), hope they both can be fast movers and play some kind of roll by 2023. Am interested to see if Elias pursues more trades for undervalued SP prospects.

[Gentile4]

4 hours ago, baltfan said:

I heard Kevin Goldstein actually say the opposite regarding the safety of position players this year.  He said that he thought because of COVID and small sample sizes that teams were more comfortable with drafting pitchers since there is a lot more pitching data available.  I also think there is the possibility that because a fair amount of teams went underslot that they stole guys we might have been interested in.  

I'm not questioning you but Goldstein's statement. Weren't there hitters actually hitting off the pitchers? Did the data recorders forget to collect data on the hitters? Clearly I'm missing something because it seems there should be the same amount of data for pitchers and position players.