What does this draft "mean" in terms of the Elias plan?

[LookinUp]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

That is an unknown even to Elias.  He has quality and quantity of pitching prospects right now.  Some will be starter and some relievers.  Some will pan out, some will not. Right now he has a hole at closer.   If he sees its not good enough he adjusts.  But first he has to continue to develop these pitchers, give them opportunities before spending money in trades to supplement them if needed.

If he's dealing in probabilities, he's understanding that most of these guys are 4-5 starters or relievers, a couple will face injuries, etc. There's upside, but it's hard to compete with teams throwing legit #2/3 guys most nights. You need a lot of those guys. 

[Sydnor]

1 hour ago, 7Mo said:

If you truly admire what the Rays have done, and Oakland, and I do, I think you have to understand that risk averse decisions are going to be the norm for years to come, not the shiny high ceiling HS guy or the Blake Snell as he becomes more expensive. I'm all on board with that idea.

Solid post, but the Rays are not risk averse when drafting players. Blake Snell was drafted out of high school. Josh Lowe was drafted out of high school. JJ Goss was drafted out of high school. Last year they drafted Nick Bitsko in the first round. There are many others. When they’ve traded players, they’ve acquired high ceiling players such as Xavier Edwards, Luis Patino, and Shane Baz. They’ve also supplemented with high ceiling players J2 players like Franco and Brujan (which Elias will also hopefully do). I don’t think you can always avoid high school players or pitchers early in the draft (acknowledging that Henderson was a high pick) just because the data isn’t as reliable in the model and college hitters are safer and more likely to become an average player.

[jamalshw]

1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

If he's dealing in probabilities, he's understanding that most of these guys are 4-5 starters or relievers, a couple will face injuries, etc. There's upside, but it's hard to compete with teams throwing legit #2/3 guys most nights. You need a lot of those guys. 

I agree on this. Right now, the Orioles NEED Rodriguez and Hall to turn into at least one TOR starter and one mid rotation arm. That, along with Means, would allow for the rest of the crop to fill in to the 4-5 spots and the pen (along with providing some added depth in case of injury). 

If you had another higher end arm or two that could spread out some of that risk, that would be huge. 

[jamalshw]

7 minutes ago, Sydnor said:

Solid post, but the Rays are not risk averse when drafting players. Blake Snell was drafted out of high school. Josh Lowe was drafted out of high school. JJ Goss was drafted out of high school. Last year they drafted Nick Bitsko in the first round. There are many others. When they’ve traded players, they’ve acquired high ceiling players such as Xavier Edwards, Luis Patino, and Shane Baz. They’ve also supplemented with high ceiling players J2 players like Franco and Brujan (which Elias will also hopefully do). I don’t think you can always avoid high school players or pitchers early in the draft (acknowledging that Henderson was a high pick) just because the data isn’t as reliable in the model and college hitters are safer and more likely to become an average player.

Risk adverse works sometimes, but it cannot be the forever philosophy. I imagine given where the Orioles are in the international market, they're still looking at late bloomers/risers as we are still a year or two away from them being able to nab some big guys who have already established the relationships with other teams. So, by that nature, most of the guys we end up with are a bit less certain and higher risk (though hopefully they're identifying the tools that at least provide some upside with that risk). Perhaps--a conservative draft or two helps even things out with upside versus predictability. 

Of course, I don't know and am just spit balling here. I just REALLY want to believe in a method behind the madness. 

[LookinUp]

The Rays are essentially 50/50 on drafting High School vs. College in the first round. 5 of the last 10. 6 of 12, etc.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Tampa_Bay_Rays_first-round_draft_picks

[baltfan]

4 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

The Rays are essentially 50/50 on drafting High School vs. College in the first round. 5 of the last 10. 6 of 12, etc.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Tampa_Bay_Rays_first-round_draft_picks

The only issue with this is the draft has changed a lot in the past 10 years.  Teams value players way differently than they did and that will affect availability.  So, a college guy that may have been available ten years ago will be snatched earlier now, or it could be the opposite depending on the type of high school guy.  That is the issue with models, they are only as good as their error rate.  Doesn't mean I don't believe in them, just means you have to be careful.

[NCRaven]

3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

But what is clear from the video scouting and reading I've done so far is that they leaned heavily towards production at the college level. It's a very moneyball-esque approach except they've added statcast type metrics leaning toward high EV players and guys with good spin rates. They've also took guys who profile well defensively until those guys were basically gone then they went with bat upside guys.

I think this nails it.  I don't think that this draft says anything about the "plan" for being competitive by a particular point in time.  Elias has been very clear that their research shows that "elite" college bats are significantly more likely to succeed than any other group.  I'm sure that their draft model quantifies their definition of elite.  That may include exit velos, strike out and walk rates, swing rates on pitches out of the zone, etc..  Then they pick the best player available based on the results of their modeling.  High school players probably suffer from a lack of available data or smaller sample sizes.  Pitchers probably suffer due to the injury factor - we don't say TNSTAAPP for nothing.  JMO.

[7Mo]

43 minutes ago, Sydnor said:

Solid post, but the Rays are not risk averse when drafting players. Blake Snell was drafted out of high school. Josh Lowe was drafted out of high school. JJ Goss was drafted out of high school. Last year they drafted Nick Bitsko in the first round. There are many others. When they’ve traded players, they’ve acquired high ceiling players such as Xavier Edwards, Luis Patino, and Shane Baz. They’ve also supplemented with high ceiling players J2 players like Franco and Brujan (which Elias will also hopefully do). I don’t think you can always avoid high school players or pitchers early in the draft (acknowledging that Henderson was a high pick) just because the data isn’t as reliable in the model and college hitters are safer and more likely to become an average player.

Here's where their top 15 prospects came from, per MLB.

Int'l, Int'l, college 1st round pick, trade, trade, college 3rd round, college 1st round, trade, HS 1st round, HS 1st round, college 7th round, Int'l, HS competitive balance pick, college CB pick, and Int'l. That's 3 of 15 that are their HS picks.

Not saying anything you posted is incorrect. I'm just saying that an idea that you only build thru high ceiling HS guys in early rounds isn't nearly enough, and I know you're not saying that.

Obviously the O's need to continue working on J2 signs and I believe they are. And I wasn't suggesting that you don't target high ceiling guys in trades or that you don't ever consider HS guys early in the draft. 

If the intention this draft was to take the first 4-5 picks as higher floor guys, I don't have a problem with it given how many needs this organization has right now. Thanks for your post.

[interloper]

5 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

From what I saw from the selections in the first round, opinions varied greatly but also that the talent difference was not very big this year. I do think Elias went with the "safer" college bat picks, but I think he went with the picks that he liked the best. From what I understand, it doesn't appear he really went underslot on guys, just he thought those guys were the BPA.

Of course, BPA is the player's who talent and risk profile combined makes him the selection. It appears that Elias didn't go for the high risk, high reward player in this draft, and he certainly eschewed away from pitchers in the first ten rounds once again.

I don't have a strong opinion on the drafted players because I certainly have not done enough scouting on these guys to tell Elias and company they were wrong for making any selection.

But what is clear from the video scouting and reading I've done so far is that they leaned heavily towards production at the college level. It's a very moneyball-esque approach except they've added statcast type metrics leaning toward high EV players and guys with good spin rates. They've also took guys who profile well defensively until those guys were basically gone then they went with bat upside guys.

Overall, I would have liked to have seen a few more high schoolers from the 5th round on but I don't know who was available, their signability and so forth. With COVID limitations this was still a little bit of crapshoot more than a normal year so I think that's another reason they went very college heavy.

Thank you for this reasonable take on the draft. It's not some huge mystery why Elias and co. are drafting the way they are. It's a simple combination of data, BPA according to their own scout teams, signability, and avoiding too much risk. 

And while we've waited to take pitchers, we've still taken a good number of pitchers overall the last 3 years. Plus we got 4 in Bundy trade, 2 in the Iglesias trade, and 1 in the Castro trade. Now none of these guys are huge upside TOR style guys, but I think the underlying strategy is those types of pitchers are so rare, why not build out the rest of the rotation with lower-risk guys who you like, see if you develop one or two beyond what you thought they'd be (like Means for example), or you try to trade for a more proven guy later. 

[LookinUp]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

Thank you for this reasonable take on the draft. It's not some huge mystery why Elias and co. are drafting the way they are. It's a simple combination of data, BPA according to their own scout teams, signability, and avoiding too much risk. 

Not to nitpick, but I think the point is that the O's view of BPA just has a different formula than someone like SG, for example. One prefers the algorithm. The other prefers the upside.

Both likely *think* they're targeting BPA though.