A chance at .400 ?

[GuidoSarducci]

The Orioles currently sit at 37-66 for a winning percentage of .359.

In order to reach .400, the Orioles would have to win 65 games, or 28 games from here on out.   With  59 games remaining, that means the Orioles would have to finish 28-31, or 3 games under .500 the rest of the way.

 

[Frobby]

Not happening.   We’ve been playing a rare stretch of games against losing teams (Nats, Marlins, Tigers).  The rest of the way we have 38 games against winning teams, 12 against losing teams, 9 against teams that are basically .500 (ATL, PHI, LAA).   I do think it’s possible we play better than .359 the rest of the way, but I’d be really surprised if we were anywhere close to .500 over the remaining 59 games.   Fangraphs projects .398 the rest of the way for us, which gets us to 60-61 wins.   I think that’s reasonable to hope for.   

That said, there’s always 2010.   32-73 followed by 34-23.    So you never know.  
 

[owknows]

They've played .692 baseball over their last two weeks.

[yark14]

We're going to finish the season really strong.  .400 is not unattainable.

[spiritof66]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Not happening.   We’ve been playing a rare stretch of games against losing teams (Nats, Marlins, Tigers).  The rest of the way we have 38 games against winning teams, 12 against losing teams, 9 against teams that are basically .500 (ATL, PHI, LAA).   I do think it’s possible we play better than .359 the rest of the way, but I’d be really surprised if we were anywhere close to .500 over the remaining 59 games.   Fangraphs projects .398 the rest of the way for us, which gets us to 60-61 wins.   I think that’s reasonable to hope for.   

That said, there’s always 2010.   32-73 followed by 34-23.    So you never know.  
 

Those teams -- Washington before its trade binge, Miami and Detroit -- were under .500, but they weren't terrible teams. They all have records better than the Orioles', much better in the case of the Nats and Bengals (Do people still call them that?), due in part to their weaker divisional rivals.

I think an optimistic but reasonable inference from this small sample size is that if the Orioles get some decent starting pitching --- a big if -- they're not now among the handful of worst teams in MLB. I have thought for the past couple of weeks that with Means back and pitching well and Harvey turning things around, and without major injuries, this could be a .400 team over the second half, even with the challenging schedule.

If something like that happens, there would be some slippage in the place for the 2022 amateur draft. Too bad about the draft. (I've long thought that the amateur draft order should be modified to reflect not only winning percentage but also strength of schedule. That apparently would be too complicated or too fair for MLB.)

[PHRESH]

I thought this thread was going to be about Pat Valaika's batting average. 

[Frobby]

46 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

Those teams -- Washington before its trade binge, Miami and Detroit -- were under .500, but they weren't terrible teams. They all have records better than the Orioles', much better in the case of the Nats and Bengals (Do people still call them that?), due in part to their weaker divisional rivals.

I think an optimistic but reasonable inference from this small sample size is that if the Orioles get some decent starting pitching --- a big if -- they're not now among the handful of worst teams in MLB. I have thought for the past couple of weeks that with Means back and pitching well and Harvey turning things around, and without major injuries, this could be a .400 team over the second half, even with the challenging schedule.

If something like that happens, there would be some slippage in the place for the 2022 amateur draft. Too bad about the draft. (I've long thought that the amateur draft order should be modified to reflect not only winning percentage but also strength of schedule. That apparently would be too complicated or too fair for MLB.)

Yeah, I am not too worried about our draft position.    I'd rather have the team playing like they are an improving team.   However, it matters to me how they do it.   The resurgence of Harvey is enjoyable, but it doesn't help the team beyond 2021.   Means showing he's healthy and pitching well is much more meaningful.  I'd like to see Hays and Mountcastle finish the year strong and have Mullins just keep doing what he's doing.   If Urias continues hitting and shows he can handle SS, that's a long term plus.   I'm hoping we continue to see good work out of the pen from Sulser, Tate, Fry and T. Wells.   It would be nice if A. Wells and Zimmermann showed they could be reliable back end guys.   Lots of things still to watch in the next two months. 

[waroriole]

50 minutes ago, PHRESH said:

I thought this thread was going to be about Pat Valaika's batting average. 

You mean OPS?

[GuidoSarducci]

25 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Yeah, I am not too worried about our draft position.    I'd rather have the team playing like they are an improving team.   However, it matters to me how they do it.   The resurgence of Harvey is enjoyable, but it doesn't help the team beyond 2021.   

We could offer him a QO ….

[maybenxtyr]

46 minutes ago, GuidoSarducci said:

We could offer him a QO ….

Why? That would probably be 17-18 million. He can be brought back as a free agent if the team is impressed with him down the stretch.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

Why? That would probably be 17-18 million. He can be brought back as a free agent if the team is impressed with him down the stretch.

No way he doesn't take a QO and no way a team gives up a pick to sign him if he has one attached.

[maybenxtyr]

14 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

No way he doesn't take a QO and no way a team gives up a pick to sign him if he has one attached.

I agree. You either resign him as a FA or let him go. A QO for him would be a terrible waste of resources.

[Jammer7]

1 hour ago, maybenxtyr said:

Why? That would probably be 17-18 million. He can be brought back as a free agent if the team is impressed with him down the stretch.

I do not know how that works. Would that amount be for any free agent? He certainly does not merit that kind of money. Not really sure what he would want to come back, or what the Orioles would be willing to offer. Personally, I can see them working something out and bringing him back next year. Maybe Holt is 

[maybenxtyr]

10 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

I do not know how that works. Would that amount be for any free agent? He certainly does not merit that kind of money. Not really sure what he would want to come back, or what the Orioles would be willing to offer. Personally, I can see them working something out and bringing him back next year. Maybe Holt is 

The QO was 18.9 this season. It is based off of the top 125 mlb contract averages per season.

[OriolesMagic83]

2 hours ago, GuidoSarducci said:

We could offer him a QO ….

You got jokes!