Robbie Ray

[Sports Guy]

This is a name that has been mentioned by a few people as someone to go after.  
 

I wanted to take a look at him, as I hadn’t really considered him as a potential guy for us.

There are definitely some pros and cons to him.

On the good side, his K numbers are huge.  Since 2016, his worst K rate is the one he currently has, which is 10.94.  Taking away last year (where he still made all of his starts), Ray has made at least 23 starts in each season since 2015.  In 3 of the previous 5 seasons, he made at least 28 starts and is well on his way to doing that this year.  He misses a ton of bats.  His swingstr% are well above average, even in this environment where everyone is seemingly missing bats.
 

On the bad sign, the walk numbers are an issue.  They have been excellent this year but he is usually in the 3.5-4 range and has actually been well above 4 the last 3 years.  This year would definitely be viewed as an outlier.  He is throwing a lot more strikes this year but his strike% is usually below average.  He also gives up a lot of homers, as he is a FB pitcher.  Despite being durable, he doesn’t pitch a ton of innings.  Similar to Tillman in that regards.

All in all, I see a guy who probably should be better than he is but is still passable as a good starter.  You may have some off years if he is more wild than usual and/or gives up a lot of homers (see 2020) but all in all he should give you a 4ish ERA for about 170 innings.  He turns 30 in about 6 weeks.

I think he’s definitely someone to consider but the BB and HR rates, as well as the lack of innings, should/could keep the price tag down.  Something in the 3/45 area would make sense to me.  Can’t see going more than that but if you could get him for that (or obviously less), I think that’s a deal you make.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

Ray would be a good signing and signal to the fans that the Orioles aren't going just lie down again in 2022. The Orioles will have to come in with the highest bid to have any chance give the current state of the franchise. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Ray would be a good signing and signal to the fans that the Orioles aren't going just lie down again in 2022. The Orioles will have to come in with the highest bid to have any chance give the current state of the franchise. 

I agree..probably means they need to go 4 years and I wouldn’t do that.  Way too many question marks.

Im hoping the question marks keep him down but he is having a good year at the right time.

[Moose Milligan]

In this day and age, K rate is king.  I'm not sure why he's been able to tamper down his walk rate, hopefully that's something he could continue to do here.  

He would be a solid signing, depending on the years, not necessarily the dollars.  But he appears to be a guy that can get you 6 innings and strike out 10+/9.  

Robbie Ray and Means would be two good guys to have at the top of the rotation with Rodriguez joining the rotation sometime next year.  

[Frobby]

Realistically, the O’s will have to pay a premium for any decent FA pitchers they acquire this offseason, for two reasons;

1.   The team has been awful for 4 years in a row (5 if you want to include 2017) and so the pitcher has to accept that the team won’t contend immediately and there’s a risk they’ll be horrible.  
2.  Pitching in OPACY and the AL East is likely to inflate their ERA and HR/9, which could make their next contract more difficult.   

This is a problem because we’ll need to overpay, but you can only overpay by so much.
 

[BRobinsonfan]

16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

This is a name that has been mentioned by a few people as someone to go after.  
 

I wanted to take a look at him, as I hadn’t really considered him as a potential guy for us.

There are definitely some pros and cons to him.

On the good side, his K numbers are huge.  Since 2016, his worst K rate is the one he currently has, which is 10.94.  Taking away last year (where he still made all of his starts), Ray has made at least 23 starts in each season since 2015.  In 3 of the previous 5 seasons, he made at least 28 starts and is well on his way to doing that this year.  He misses a ton of bats.  His swingstr% are well above average, even in this environment where everyone is seemingly missing bats.
 

On the bad sign, the walk numbers are an issue.  They have been excellent this year but he is usually in the 3.5-4 range and has actually been well above 4 the last 3 years.  This year would definitely be viewed as an outlier.  He is throwing a lot more strikes this year but his strike% is usually below average.  He also gives up a lot of homers, as he is a FB pitcher.  Despite being durable, he doesn’t pitch a ton of innings.  Similar to Tillman in that regards.

All in all, I see a guy who probably should be better than he is but is still passable as a good starter.  You may have some off years if he is more wild than usual and/or gives up a lot of homers (see 2020) but all in all he should give you a 4ish ERA for about 170 innings.  He turns 30 in about 6 weeks.

I think he’s definitely someone to consider but the BB and HR rates, as well as the lack of innings, should/could keep the price tag down.  Something in the 3/45 area would make sense to me.  Can’t see going more than that but if you could get him for that (or obviously less), I think that’s a deal you make.

In addition to his K rate and his swingstr% you neglected to mention him having a good name for baseball.  Lol.  

I think he'd be solid signing if the price tag is not ridiculously high.  Just the fact that he averages 6 innings a start would be a huge improvement for us.  

[Aristotelian]

I think he would be a terrific target. Not an Ace but a pretty solid bet for 150+ innings and below average ERA. Easily a #3 starter on a good team and possibly better. Stroman, Descalafini, and Jon Gray I think would be a step down but perhaps more realistic. Could also try to get someone like Archer or Paxton on a one year deal. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

6 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

In this day and age, K rate is king.  I'm not sure why he's been able to tamper down his walk rate, hopefully that's something he could continue to do here.  

He would be a solid signing, depending on the years, not necessarily the dollars.  But he appears to be a guy that can get you 6 innings and strike out 10+/9.  

Robbie Ray and Means would be two good guys to have at the top of the rotation with Rodriguez joining the rotation sometime next year.  

This would get the Orioles on the fast track to resembling a real major league team again. After the Alex Cobb debacle the biggest issue might be getting ownership to sign off on spending $$$ on a free agent pitcher that isn't a reclamation project. 

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I think he would be a terrific target. Not an Ace but a pretty solid bet for 150+ innings and below average ERA. Easily a #3 starter on a good team and possibly better. Stroman, Descalafini, and Jon Gray I think would be a step down but perhaps more realistic. Could also try to get someone like Archer or Paxton on a one year deal. 

Stroman is definitely not a step down.

[interloper]

Well I'm down for this idea, I just doubt it can happen. As much of an Elias guy that I am, I will be disappointed if there isn't SOME effort made in the free agent market this off-season. Hyde seems like he's gonna go full Dave Trembley at any moment. Need to throw that guy a bone at some point.

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Stroman is definitely not a step down.

Just took a look at his numbers and you are right. Dang it, probably out of our price range.

[vab]

The Orioles are not getting any free agent pitchers that have any other options, period. The worst team in baseball playing in a bandbox in the toughest division in baseball with an unbalanced schedule - it's the perfect storm of unattractiveness to free agent pitchers. The best they'll be able to do in free agency is sign a Harvey-type and get lucky. Acquring pitching for this club is limited to developing it on the farm or trading for it. I know nobody wants to hear it but it's the truth. 

[Three Run Homer]

3 minutes ago, vab said:

The Orioles are not getting any free agent pitchers that have any other options, period. The worst team in baseball playing in a bandbox in the toughest division in baseball with an unbalanced schedule - it's the perfect storm of unattractiveness to free agent pitchers. They best they'll be able to do in free agency is sign a Harvey-type and get lucky. Acquring pitching for this club is limited to developing it on the farm or trading for it. I know nobody wants to hear it but it's the truth. 

All the obstacles you mention are true, but in the end, money talks.  The O's just have to accept that they will have to overpay (in terms of years and dollars) to sign FA pitching.  

[backwardsk]

They are not going to give Robby Ray the 9 figure contract needed to land him.

[Yardball85]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

In this day and age, K rate is king.  I'm not sure why he's been able to tamper down his walk rate, hopefully that's something he could continue to do here.  

He would be a solid signing, depending on the years, not necessarily the dollars.  But he appears to be a guy that can get you 6 innings and strike out 10+/9.  

Robbie Ray and Means would be two good guys to have at the top of the rotation with Rodriguez joining the rotation sometime next year.  

I would certainly be interested in taking a look.  However, I have seen no indication whatsoever that the Orioles will be targeting any "real' free agents this offseason.  I'd expect 2-3 more LeBlancs/Harveys/Millones.  It's just what they like doing.  It sucks and I disagree with it but it is what it is.