The Mountcastle Eye

[Sports Guy]

Would like to see him, as I did with Jones in the past, just get to the point where he is walking 40-60 times.  If he can be in that range, he will be fine.   Of course, if he is on the lower end of that, I would like to see the BA be 275 or higher.
 

He will still be limited in terms of his ceiling but that would be good enough for him.

[Frobby]

25 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Just noting Mountcastle drew two walks last night, one with the bases loaded in the second to drive in the tying run, then in the 7th leading off as the tying run, coming around to score on Mancini's double. Small sample size of course but those were both relatively big situations and I imagine both would have been tempting situations to swing for the fences. 

Well, the pitch on Ball Four with the bases loaded was about a foot inside and low, not really a competitive pitch at all.   But he did foul off a couple of close pitches before that one.  

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Would like to see him, as I did with Jones in the past, just get to the point where he is walking 40-60 times.  If he can be in that range, he will be fine.   Of course, if he is on the lower end of that, I would like to see the BA be 275 or higher.
 

He will still be limited in terms of his ceiling but that would be good enough for him.

He’s already walking a bit more than Jones typically did.  He’s got 31 already with 30 games to play, so he could end up in the 38-39 range.   Jones reached 31 only four times in his career and topped out at 39.    

Although Mountcastle swings at a lot of pitches that aren’t strikes, I think he’s much better than Jones at laying off the two-strike breaking pitches that aren’t close to being strikes.   That was a huge weakness for Adam.
 

[Il BuonO]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, the pitch on Ball Four with the bases loaded was about a foot inside and low, not really a competitive pitch at all.   But he did foul off a couple of close pitches before that one.  

Didn’t stop him from swinging at a non-competitive pitch in his last AB. Last pitch was six inches above the zone. Romano does throw 98, though.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

He’s already walking a bit more than Jones typically did.  He’s got 31 already with 30 games to play, so he could end up in the 38-39 range.   Jones reached 31 only four times in his career and topped out at 39.    

Although Mountcastle swings at a lot of pitches that aren’t strikes, I think he’s much better than Jones at laying off the two-strike breaking pitches that aren’t close to being strikes.   That was a huge weakness for Adam.
 

Sure and his lack of walks hurt him…but Jones also typically would bat around 280.  Mountcastle needs to get his average consistently in that area if he is going to walk 30-40 times as opposed to 50+.

[Moose Milligan]

29 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Would like to see him, as I did with Jones in the past, just get to the point where he is walking 40-60 times.  If he can be in that range, he will be fine.   Of course, if he is on the lower end of that, I would like to see the BA be 275 or higher.
 

He will still be limited in terms of his ceiling but that would be good enough for him.

Jones would have those stretches, usually at the beginning of a season...where he'd lay off the low and outside sliders.  You could tell that it was hard for him to do it, but he did it.  And you'd think maybe, just maybe, he was going to start laying off them for good.  

Two weeks later he was flailing away at them.  He just couldn't help himself.  

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Sure and his lack of walks hurt him…but Jones also typically would bat around 280.  Mountcastle needs to get his average consistently in that area if he is going to walk 30-40 times as opposed to 50+.

I don’t disagree.   As a 1B/DH, he needs to do more with the bat than Jones did as a CF.  Still, I’m pretty pleased with what he’s done as a 24-year old rookie in his first full season.  He’s a few steps ahead of where Jones was offensively at that stage of his career.   His current 119 OPS+ is better than all but one season Jones had.   I’m hoping he can be a 130 OPS+ guy in his prime.   

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t disagree.   As a 1B/DH, he needs to do more with the bat than Jones did as a CF.  Still, I’m pretty pleased with what he’s done as a 24-year old rookie in his first full season.  He’s a few steps ahead of where Jones was offensively at that stage of his career.   His current 119 OPS+ is better than all but one season Jones had.   I’m hoping he can be a 130 OPS+ guy in his prime.   

My consistent best case for him is something like 280/340/520.

Something  like that. 

I just don’t think he will do that consistently.  I think he will be closer to an 800 OPS than 860 on a generally regular basis.

I do have confidence that he can be a better hitter hitter than Jones BUT like you said, he has a lot to do to make up for positional value.

Ultimately, I think he is a 2-3 WAR player with the potential to pop a bigger year every once in a while, ala Mancini in 2019.

[Frobby]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

My consistent best case for him is something like 280/340/520.

Something  like that. 

I just don’t think he will do that consistently.  I think he will be closer to an 800 OPS than 860 on a generally regular basis.

I do have confidence that he can be a better hitter hitter than Jones BUT like you said, he has a lot to do to make up for positional value.

Ultimately, I think he is a 2-3 WAR player with the potential to pop a bigger year every once in a while, ala Mancini in 2019.

Agreed on all fronts.   Of course, as a fan, I’m hoping for a bit more.   But this is a realistic assessment.   

[Pickles]

1 hour ago, Il BuonO said:

Didn’t stop him from swinging at a non-competitive pitch in his last AB. Last pitch was six inches above the zone. Romano does throw 98, though.

That was a hell of an at bat.  With a very generous ump who clearly had a dinner reservation.

Yeah, he struck out, but he battled very well.

[Il BuonO]

2 hours ago, Pickles said:

That was a hell of an at bat.  With a very generous ump who clearly had a dinner reservation.

Yeah, he struck out, but he battled very well.

I don’t disagree. I’d just like to see him get to the point where he’s not swinging at that last pitch.

[Frobby]

Should’ve posted this yesterday, but on Wednesday Mountcastle drew his 40th walk of the year, surpassing the most Adam Jones ever had in a year.  

He’s also putting some distance between his rookie HR record and Cal’s old mark.  
 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Should’ve posted this yesterday, but on Wednesday Mountcastle drew his 40th walk of the year, surpassing the most Adam Jones ever had in a year.  

He’s also putting some distance between his rookie HR record and Cal’s old mark.  
 

Mountcastle's walk rate has improved in the second half of the year too. Mountcastle had 20 walks in 242 plate appearances (thru Wednesday) post all star break compared to 20 walks in 328 plate appearances pre all star break. 

[Ruzious]

On 8/31/2021 at 7:01 AM, waroriole said:

Maybe he’s just a slow starter, like Greg “The Hammer” Valentine. Once the season heats up, he doesn’t get tired, he gets stronger. 
 

Side Note: old 80s/90s wrestling is on Peacock.

Still, I would hesitate to book Mountcastle in a Dog Collar Match.  Not ready yet.  

[Aristotelian]

Walks by month:

April 4

May 3

June 8

July 8

August 6

Sept 12