Mountcastle talk

[LA2]

1 hour ago, Pickles said:

Hitting is like sex.  It comes in waves.  Or not at all.

Except that in the case of sex, it has been documented that one's O-Swing% reliably decreases in linear fashion.

[Tony-OH]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

Were there a lot of people who thought that?   I’ve always thought most folks here were pretty bullish on MC’s bat.   

I noticed today that MC has now played 156 big league games, just short of one full year, and has 31 homers and 100 RBI.
 

I never said a lot, but there is a prominent poster on here that was never on Mountcastle and always thought he was over rated because he was too focused on just the BB-K rate while not understanding the game has changed. 

[jabba72]

9 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I never said a lot, but there is a prominent poster on here that was never on Mountcastle and always thought he was over rated because he was too focused on just the BB-K rate while not understanding the game has changed. 

I wasnt bullish on him at all after he moved off SS. But he's walking more than he ever did in the minors. So as long as he recognizes he cant chase everything, he might be a good power hitter. Its just one+ year but good on him for recognizing the weakness and improving. 

[Ruzious]

30 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I never said a lot, but there is a prominent poster on here that was never on Mountcastle and always thought he was over rated because he was too focused on just the BB-K rate while not understanding the game has changed. 

Right.  And If a player produces offensively in the minors at a young age and has a swing that wows the scouts (I think you said he had the best swing in the O's system.), I thought it was foolish to ignore that just because very few successful MLBers had that low a BB/K ratio - even regardless of the game changing.  While we don't know what he'll do in the future, it's looking good, and I think you were right.    

[HowAboutThat]

My knock was always defense, and I was agreeing with the scouts who said that he needed to end up at first or DH. Now that he is there, and we have no more of this “left field” nonsense, he can do what he does. He’s actually not a good defensive first baseman, according to baseball savant, but he will get better I am sure

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

4 hours ago, Philip said:

My knock was always defense, and I was agreeing with the scouts who said that he needed to end up at first or DH. Now that he is there, and we have no more of this “left field” nonsense, he can do what he does. He’s actually not a good defensive first baseman, according to baseball savant, but he will get better I am sure

With his athleticism the O's wanted Mountcastle to become an outfielder and gave him every chance. Mountcastle looks like he should be an outfielder, but it's just not in the cards with his poor defensive skills. 

[HowAboutThat]

9 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

With his athleticism the O's wanted Mountcastle to become an outfielder and gave him every chance. Mountcastle looks like he should be an outfielder, but it's just not in the cards with his poor defensive skills. 

I understand that, but based on what I read from the scouting reports, it was never a possibility. He can run, but he was never able to translate that speed into any defensive prowess in the field, and I’m not sure, but I don’t think he can throw either. But if he can hit and catch, he’ll be fine.

 

[Moose Milligan]

8 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I never said a lot, but there is a prominent poster on here that was never on Mountcastle and always thought he was over rated because he was too focused on just the BB-K rate while not understanding the game has changed. 

Probably was me. I wasn’t high on him because of that, also the defense. But he is walking more since he’s been called up. Improved plate discipline is nice to see. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Philip said:

I understand that, but based on what I read from the scouting reports, it was never a possibility. He can run, but he was never able to translate that speed into any defensive prowess in the field, and I’m not sure, but I don’t think he can throw either. But if he can hit and catch, he’ll be fine.

 

For whatever reason, Mountcastle played much better in LF last year compared to this one.   In 2020, he was at 0 OAA, -1 Rtot, 0 Rdrs, +0.2 UZR in 192 innings.   That’s a very respectable showing, especially considering his lack of experience there, and I was somewhat optimistic that he could play respectably out there.   This year, in an even smaller sample of 143 innings, he had -6 OAA, -4 Rtot, -5 Rdrs, -3.0 UZR.   Those are just terrible numbers.   

Honestly, I believe that Mountcastle might still become a respectable LF if given more reps out there.    But why bother?    He’s not going to be one of our three best defensive options out there, we have a ton of outfielders in the pipeline, and he’s proven to be quite adequate at 1B.   For now it’s fine having him split 1B/DH with Mancini, and unless something surprising happens, Mancini is gone in a year or less anyway.   

So, I resist the notion that it was a foregone conclusion that Mountcastle would be significantly subpar in the OF, but it doesn’t really matter.    We’ve got room for him where he is now, and he hits well enough to play at that spot.  

[Tony-OH]

18 hours ago, Ruzious said:

Right.  And If a player produces offensively in the minors at a young age and has a swing that wows the scouts (I think you said he had the best swing in the O's system.), I thought it was foolish to ignore that just because very few successful MLBers had that low a BB/K ratio - even regardless of the game changing.  While we don't know what he'll do in the future, it's looking good, and I think you were right.    

Trust me, I understand the concerns over K-BB ratios and it does comes into the equation when doing evaluations. My thing with Mountcastle was I watched how hard he hit the ball and although he may have struck out on a bad slider away in one at bat, the next at bat he stayed off the pitch, made the pitcher come into the zone and then crushed it. 

Why average isn't everything, I do think that batters that hit for a high average with power is a good sign, even if the K-BB leaves some to be desired. 

Now do I think Mountcastle is a .333 hitter at the major league level, probably not, but I do think he'll settle into a .285-.300 guy with 30+ home run power. I also think settling down his position into something he can handle helped as well. 

[Tony-OH]

16 hours ago, Philip said:

My knock was always defense, and I was agreeing with the scouts who said that he needed to end up at first or DH. Now that he is there, and we have no more of this “left field” nonsense, he can do what he does. He’s actually not a good defensive first baseman, according to baseball savant, but he will get better I am sure

He's been -1 OOA with -1% success rate added so while he's been slightly below average, I think that's pretty good overall for a guy playing the position extensively for the first time and he's been getting better. He's been doing a pretty good job of picking balls and has been solid on balls hit on the ground at him.

[Tony-OH]

10 hours ago, Frobby said:

For whatever reason, Mountcastle played much better in LF last year compared to this one.   In 2020, he was at 0 OAA, -1 Rtot, 0 Rdrs, +0.2 UZR in 192 innings.   That’s a very respectable showing, especially considering his lack of experience there, and I was somewhat optimistic that he could play respectably out there.   This year, in an even smaller sample of 143 innings, he had -6 OAA, -4 Rtot, -5 Rdrs, -3.0 UZR.   Those are just terrible numbers.   

Honestly, I believe that Mountcastle might still become a respectable LF if given more reps out there.    But why bother?    He’s not going to be one of our three best defensive options out there, we have a ton of outfielders in the pipeline, and he’s proven to be quite adequate at 1B.   For now it’s fine having him split 1B/DH with Mancini, and unless something surprising happens, Mancini is gone in a year or less anyway.   

So, I resist the notion that it was a foregone conclusion that Mountcastle would be significantly subpar in the OF, but it doesn’t really matter.    We’ve got room for him where he is now, and he hits well enough to play at that spot.  

I don't think he was challenged very much last year in LF. Most of balls hit to him were right at him and when he was "challenged" he ran very tentatively covering an almost league worse 27.9 ft/s covered. He actually improved his jumps and feet covered this year (still below average 29.5 ft/s) but was actually challenged this year and he hurt the team with him being out there. 

It's not that Mountcastle doesn't have the athleticism and speed to play the outfield, I just think he just doesn't read the ball well in the air. Not everyone can do that. 

It was certainly worth trying and something the former regime should have done years ago in the minor leagues instead of wasting years playing him at SS and 3B, two places he was never going to play effectively due to his long arm action and lack of arm strength.  

Mountcastle was always going to be a bat first player, but I do believe he can be a solid average defensive 1st baseman. I would never say never, but the amount of game experience Mountcastle would probably need in LF to ever become passable is not going to happen at the major league level. 

Mountcastle is a our 1st baseman of now and the future.

[Redskins Rick]

19 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I never said a lot, but there is a prominent poster on here that was never on Mountcastle and always thought he was over rated because he was too focused on just the BB-K rate while not understanding the game has changed. 

I was in the camp. Very bullish on MC, figured his bat would play at the ML level, but wasnt sure, where his defense skillset would have him, and do the least damage to the team.

[Sports Guy]

29 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Trust me, I understand the concerns over K-BB ratios and it does comes into the equation when doing evaluations. My thing with Mountcastle was I watched how hard he hit the ball and although he may have struck out on a bad slider away in one at bat, the next at bat he stayed off the pitch, made the pitcher come into the zone and then crushed it. 

Why average isn't everything, I do think that batters that hit for a high average with power is a good sign, even if the K-BB leaves some to be desired. 

Now do I think Mountcastle is a .333 hitter at the major league level, probably not, but I do think he'll settle into a .285-.300 guy with 30+ home run power. I also think settling down his position into something he can handle helped as well. 

I get why people down play BA (I did it myself) but I think it’s gone too far at this point. I absolutely want guys who can hit for a decent average.  This sub 240 stuff is annoying.

[Redskins Rick]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I get why people down play BA (I did it myself) but I think it’s gone too far at this point. I absolutely want guys who can hit for a decent average.  This sub 240 stuff is annoying.

Im with you, I want hitters that can hit.

But, remember Reynolds was hitting and had a brick for a glove at third. 

Not saying MC is that bad, just saying, I totally want hitters, but dont need super bad defensive players either.