Eduardo Rodriguez

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

A possible approach with Davies would be a one year "bet on himself" contract where we overpay for the year without any longer commitment. No guarantees but he could probably turn a successful year into a 5/$100M type of contract, kind of like Semien's one year deal with the Blue Jays this year. Would 1/$15M for Davies be too much? 

The last question first.  It's probably too much but we'll have to overpay.  Second, what pitcher comes to Baltimore to re-establish market value?  Answer.  Not a very smart one.  One year deals in Baltimore are for the desperate that no one else will take.

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, RZNJ said:

The last question first.  It's probably too much but we'll have to overpay.  Second, what pitcher comes to Baltimore to re-establish market value?  Answer.  Not a very smart one.  One year deals in Baltimore are for the desperate that no one else will take.

It's easy to say that good pitchers won't come here (and I agree with that sentiment) but I think we also lose track of the fact that it's not like this organization has really tried in recent years.

Alex Cobb came off a decent year before signing here.  Ubaldo (I know, I know) re-established his value in Cleveland in 2013 before signing here, too.  

Those are the names that come to mind immediately when it comes to multi-year deals at a 10 million a year+ contract value.  I'm sure I'm probably forgetting some but I'm too lazy to look it up.

IMO, I don't see this organization trying to sign a bunch of these guys each year and coming up short.  I don't see the organization trying at all.

So, again, IMO, maybe they'd come here if the Orioles actually tried.  

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

It's easy to say that good pitchers won't come here (and I agree with that sentiment) but I think we also lose track of the fact that it's not like this organization has really tried in recent years.

Alex Cobb came off a decent year before signing here.  Ubaldo (I know, I know) re-established his value in Cleveland in 2013 before signing here, too.  

Those are the names that come to mind immediately when it comes to multi-year deals at a 10 million a year+ contract value.  I'm sure I'm probably forgetting some but I'm too lazy to look it up.

IMO, I don't see this organization trying to sign a bunch of these guys each year and coming up short.  I don't see the organization trying at all.

So, again, IMO, maybe they'd come here if the Orioles actually tried.  

Moose, I didn't say that no one would sign here.   I said that it is almost impossible to get a good pitcher who wants to re-establish market value on a one-year contract to come here.   Pitching in a hitter's park in a tough division is a pretty tough place to put up attractive numbers on the pitching side.

 

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

It's easy to say that good pitchers won't come here (and I agree with that sentiment) but I think we also lose track of the fact that it's not like this organization has really tried in recent years.

Alex Cobb came off a decent year before signing here.  Ubaldo (I know, I know) re-established his value in Cleveland in 2013 before signing here, too.  

Those are the names that come to mind immediately when it comes to multi-year deals at a 10 million a year+ contract value.  I'm sure I'm probably forgetting some but I'm too lazy to look it up.

IMO, I don't see this organization trying to sign a bunch of these guys each year and coming up short.  I don't see the organization trying at all.

So, again, IMO, maybe they'd come here if the Orioles actually tried.  

Orioles signed Cobb on March 21st.

Orioles signed Ubaldo on February 17th.

I think it is fair to say they didn't have an abundance of other offers.

[Moose Milligan]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Moose, I didn't say that no one would sign here.   I said that it is almost impossible to get a good pitcher who wants to re-establish market value on a one-year contract to come here.   Pitching in a hitter's park in a tough division is a pretty tough place to put up attractive numbers on the pitching side.

 

RZNJ, I said that it's impossible if they don't try.  I believe we think it's almost impossible to get a good pitcher here (whether they want to re-establish market value or not doesn't make a difference) because the Orioles simply don't try to spend money on quality free agent pitchers to begin with.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

RZNJ, I said that it's impossible if they don't try.  I believe we think it's almost impossible to get a good pitcher here (whether they want to re-establish market value or not doesn't make a difference) because the Orioles simply don't try to spend money on quality free agent pitchers to begin with.

It's the combination of factors.  This isn't an attractive destination, for a number of reasons and ownership has tended to not be interested in those types of players.  Makes it pretty much impossible to get anyone here who is coveted by other teams.

[RZNJ]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

RZNJ, I said that it's impossible if they don't try.  I believe we think it's almost impossible to get a good pitcher here (whether they want to re-establish market value or not doesn't make a difference) because the Orioles simply don't try to spend money on quality free agent pitchers to begin with.

Separate issues to me.   IMO, it is easier for the O's to get someone here on a multi year contract than a make-good one-year re-establish value type of contract.    Whether the Orioles seriously pursue either type of FA is a separate issue.

 

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Orioles signed Cobb on March 21st.

Orioles signed Ubaldo on February 17th.

I think it is fair to say they didn't have an abundance of other offers.

You're probably right, however Cobb didn't come to us hat in hand.  We gave him a 4/57 million deal.  It's entirely possible and probably likely that we bid against ourselves or had to overpay to that degree in order to get his attention.  Same with Ubaldo, 4/50.  But in recent years we've seen free agents signing later and later in the offseason, too.  

[Frobby]

26 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

You're probably right about the money he'll get, but I would rate him a journeyman at this point in his career.  If the O's signed him, I'd expect further decline pitching in the AL East - especially with half his games in Baltimore.  I'd much rather sign 1 EdRod than 2 Davies'.    

At this point in his career?   He’s 28 years old.   Honestly, to me the successful soft tossers can remain successful for a long time.    

I’m not advocating for Davies over EdRod, just discussing Davies on his own merits.   I would rather have EdRod, mostly because he’s had success pitching in the AL East.   But I won’t be surprised if Davies has the longer career.  
 

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Separate issues to me.   IMO, it is easier for the O's to get someone here on a multi year contract than a make-good one-year re-establish value type of contract.    Whether the Orioles seriously pursue either type of FA is a separate issue.

 

I consider them linked.

IMO, it's just as hard to get someone here on a multi year deal.  As you noted, they're signing up to play in a bandbox and in the AL East.  Who'd sign up for that for multiple years?  Cobb did it....why he did it, I have no idea.  Probably because he was already in the East to begin with and had already done fairly well.  Sure a free agent would like the security of a multi-year deal but if they're good enough they should probably be able to get a multi year deal somewhere else that's more appealing.

If you're focusing on a one year re-establish type of guy...you're correct, why would they come here?  I would assume that many other teams would want to take the chance on a guy who has to re-establish himself.  Capturing some former glory for a guy who was, at one time, pretty good is a gamble a lot of teams would take.  It's not an exactly under valued market.

Either way, the prospect of pitching here isn't good no matter how you cut it.  Multi-year deal, one year deal, etc.  Doesn't matter.

Whether the Orioles seriously pursue either type of FA is the real issue here because, we, the diehard fans who spend all day every day on here speculating about this type of stuff really have no idea if the Orioles can land either type of FA if they're not getting in the ring.  

We really don't know, do we?  The Orioles, from what we can tell, just simply don't try to get either type.  So how can we really know that free agents of either type won't come here?

[Ruzious]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

At this point in his career?   He’s 28 years old.   Honestly, to me the successful soft tossers can remain successful for a long time.    

I’m not advocating for Davies over EdRod, just discussing Davies on his own merits.   I would rather have EdRod, mostly because he’s had success pitching in the AL East.   But I won’t be surprised if Davies has the longer career.  
 

Agree to disagree.  I don't think there's any comparison between the 2.  There's just too much going against Davies, imo.  This year doesn't completely erase what he's done in the past, but it is the best indication of what he'll do going forward.  His peripherals are really bad - there's just no reason to believe he'll do better playing the brutal schedule Baltimore plays in the stadium Baltimore plays in.     

[Aristotelian]

For the O's, Cashner is probably the best recent comp. He signed for 2/$16, and that was coming off a nice year with Texas.

Garrett Richards is another comp in the AL East. Same division, hitters park, signed for 1/$10M with the Red Sox. 

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I consider them linked.

IMO, it's just as hard to get someone here on a multi year deal.  As you noted, they're signing up to play in a bandbox and in the AL East.  Who'd sign up for that for multiple years?  Cobb did it....why he did it, I have no idea.  Probably because he was already in the East to begin with and had already done fairly well.  Sure a free agent would like the security of a multi-year deal but if they're good enough they should probably be able to get a multi year deal somewhere else that's more appealing.

If you're focusing on a one year re-establish type of guy...you're correct, why would they come here?  I would assume that many other teams would want to take the chance on a guy who has to re-establish himself.  Capturing some former glory for a guy who was, at one time, pretty good is a gamble a lot of teams would take.  It's not an exactly under valued market.

Either way, the prospect of pitching here isn't good no matter how you cut it.  Multi-year deal, one year deal, etc.  Doesn't matter.

Whether the Orioles seriously pursue either type of FA is the real issue here because, we, the diehard fans who spend all day every day on here speculating about this type of stuff really have no idea if the Orioles can land either type of FA if they're not getting in the ring.  

We really don't know, do we?  The Orioles, from what we can tell, just simply don't try to get either type.  So how can we really know that free agents of either type won't come here?

Alex Cobb was 30 years old, coming off of a his first full season in the last 3 after having major surgery.    He's contract would take him through his age 33 season in 2021.   That's called take one last big contract while you can.   Pitchers are fragile and he already had a taste of that.    Most other teams were probably offering 3 years.    He took the guarantee of 4 not knowing if he would be able to pitch for anyone after the contract was up.

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

Agree to disagree.  I don't think there's any comparison between the 2.  There's just too much going against Davies, imo.  This year doesn't completely erase what he's done in the past, but it is the best indication of what he'll do going forward.  His peripherals are really bad - there's just no reason to believe he'll do better playing the brutal schedule Baltimore plays in the stadium Baltimore plays in.     

Why are we taking his worst, most current year, and saying that's the best indication of what he'll be going forward when A) he's still young (currently 28), and B)he's survived in a homerun park before (Milwaukee).    Why do you disregard in his pre 28 year old seasons and assume age 28 season is the best indicator?    

[Frobby]

15 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I consider them linked.

IMO, it's just as hard to get someone here on a multi year deal.  As you noted, they're signing up to play in a bandbox and in the AL East.  Who'd sign up for that for multiple years?  Cobb did it....why he did it, I have no idea.  

I’ll give you 57 million reasons.   

I agree with RZNJ here.   If you’re signing what is likely to be your biggest, longest contract, you don’t care too much about the pitching environment because the check is already in the mail once that contract is signed.  If you’re signing a one-year deal in the hopes you can have a good season and improve your market position, Baltimore is not the place you’d pick.