Eduardo Rodriguez

[RZNJ]

The big difference between Zach Davies this year and years prior is his walk rate.   Every year before this, it was under 3.0.   This year is 4.2.    It could be something physical.  It could be something mechanical.    It could be that he just started to suck and is afraid to throw strikes.    I don't think the answer is so simple.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I’ll give you 57 million reasons.   

I agree with RZNJ here.   If your signing what is likely to be your biggest, longest contract, you don’t care too much about the pitching environment because the check is already in the mail once that contract is signed.  If you’re signing a one-year deal in the hopes you can have a good season and improve your market position, Baltimore is not the place you’d pick.   
 

I think that if the offers are close players will still avoid the Orioles.

The O's will either have to overpay are target guys like Cobb who didn't have other serious offers.

[Philip]

53 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

A possible approach with Davies would be a one year "bet on himself" contract where we overpay for the year without any longer commitment. No guarantees but he could probably turn a successful year into a 5/$100M type of contract, kind of like Semien's one year deal with the Blue Jays this year. Would 1/$15M for Davies be too much? 

That’s what I was thinking about, although I think 15 would be too much I was thinking more like 6 to 8, but I don’t know what the going rate is so you might be right.

However I think I’m coming around to @Sports Guy’s way of thinking. His home run rate is high, the ground ball rate is low, He has a horrible Defense behind him, reflective of where we are(and a lack of interest in meaningful Defense) So it might be better to let him sign with somebody else. I only mentioned him just because he was coming off a bad year and might be had cheaply.

Edited September 3, 2021 by Philip

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

The big difference between Zach Davies this year and years prior is his walk rate.   Every year before this, it was under 3.0.   This year is 4.2.    It could be something physical.  It could be something mechanical.    It could be that he just started to suck and is afraid to throw strikes.    I don't think the answer is so simple.

If I had just a bit more energy I'd check his splits to see if his walk rate spiked after the foreign substance crackdown.

[jabba72]

53 minutes ago, Hazmat said:

What about Chad Kuhl?  He'll be 29 in September.  He will cost less than Davies.

I like Kuhl over Harvey and possibly Davies if he's making 10m+. I think Davies is fast approaching the end of getting that kind of salary, but we'll see.  

[Frobby]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

I think that if the offers are close players will still avoid the Orioles.

The O's will either have to overpay are target guys like Cobb who didn't have other serious offers.

Who knows what other offers Cobb had?

Don’t get me wrong, I already said the O’s have to pay a premium to attract FA pitchers.   I just think it’s easier to coax one here on a longer term deal than on a one-year deal where a pitcher is trying to generate a better market.   

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Who knows what other offers Cobb had?

Don’t get me wrong, I already said the O’s have to pay a premium to attract FA pitchers.   I just think it’s easier to coax one here on a longer term deal than on a one-year deal where a pitcher is trying to generate a better market.   

He signed on March 21st.

 

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If I had just a bit more energy I'd check his splits to see if his walk rate spiked after the foreign substance crackdown.

15 walks in 19 innings in April.   All over the place since then so I would say it had little or nothing to do with it.    Overall his 2nd half has been worse than his first half but the April numbers suggest that he was having issues long before the crackdown.

[Philip]

Oh, that wonderful “foreign substance crack down” I wonder if that’s going to play a meaningful role in off-season free agency? After all if a guy relied on it for success and now is sucking, he doesn’t have any value, but he might if there is a move afoot to allow the foreign substance back into the game.

I’m pretty sure an article either has been written or shortly will be about pitchers  that were most affected by the banning of spider tak And I’m sure there’s gonna be a lot of screaming to get it returned.

[Moose Milligan]

51 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He signed on March 21st.

 

You keep saying that like it's proof that he didn't have any other offers.

59 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’ll give you 57 million reasons.   

I agree with RZNJ here.   If you’re signing what is likely to be your biggest, longest contract, you don’t care too much about the pitching environment because the check is already in the mail once that contract is signed.  If you’re signing a one-year deal in the hopes you can have a good season and improve your market position, Baltimore is not the place you’d pick.   
 

So you don't think that Cobb's familiarity and success in the AL East had nothing to do with his decision to come here, too?  

 

[Ruzious]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Why are we taking his worst, most current year, and saying that's the best indication of what he'll be going forward when A) he's still young (currently 28), and B)he's survived in a homerun park before (Milwaukee).    Why do you disregard in his pre 28 year old seasons and assume age 28 season is the best indicator?    

No matter who the player is, his last year is the best indicator of what he'll do in the future - unless there's an injury or some other reasonable cause for the dropoff.  

And I even said the current year doesn't completely erase what he's done before.  

I think if someone gives Davies a multi-year deal at 10 plus mil a year, they will regret it.  Do you disagree?    

 

 

 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

You keep saying that like it's proof that he didn't have any other offers.

So you don't think that Cobb's familiarity and success in the AL East had nothing to do with his decision to come here, too?  

 

I think that he didn't have any other offers that were close to what the Orioles offered.  You don't sign a deal a week before the regular season starts because you have an abundance of offers to choose from.

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

I think that he didn't have any other offers that were close to what the Orioles offered.  You don't sign a deal a week before the regular season starts because you have an abundance of offers to choose from.

Maybe he had a bunch of 3 year deals and wanted a 4th and we stepped up and gave it to him.

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

You keep saying that like it's proof that he didn't have any other offers.

So you don't think that Cobb's familiarity and success in the AL East had nothing to do with his decision to come here, too?  

 

IIRC, there was even rumors that he didn't have a 3 year offer.

He came here because we went to a level, price wise, that no one else would.

That's where the franchise is.  We are either going to have to way overpay, trade for pitching, develop pitching or get someone no one wants, like Harvey.  No one who has options is coming here for a market value deal.

I think we all know this and its not really that hard to figure out.  

What I find to be a more interesting topic is how does this change.  Obviously winning will help but I think it goes beyond that.  I wonder if Adley will effect things?  We see how he is with pitchers now.  The guys in the minors love him.  They speak glowingly about his leadership.  Word of something like that spreads rapidly within that tight knit group of pitchers around the league.   

[Ruzious]

Yeah, and I think everyone knows that all things being equal, the O's are going to have to pay a bit of a premium to get quality free agents.  And while that's obviously not a good thing, it's also not something that should make us throw our hands in the air and just whine about not being able to compete.  Make a few moves showing we're committed to winning, and all of a sudden, we're not a terrible destination for free agents.