Eduardo Rodriguez

[Philip]

I mentioned Davies because he’s still fairly young and will be cheap, and cost will certainly be the most significant factor in any signings. We are still dumpster diving this off-season.

[Ruzious]

5 minutes ago, Philip said:

I mentioned Davies because he’s still fairly young and will be cheap, and cost will certainly be the most significant factor in any signings. We are still dumpster diving this off-season.

That's fair - as long as dumpster-diving like that is only used after exploring better options.   

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, Philip said:

I mentioned Davies because he’s still fairly young and will be cheap, and cost will certainly be the most significant factor in any signings. We are still dumpster diving this off-season.

How cheap do you think he’ll be?   I think you might be surprised at how much he gets.  

[RZNJ]

26 minutes ago, Frobby said:

How cheap do you think he’ll be?   I think you might be surprised at how much he gets.  

Good question.   Would someone give him a 4 or 5 year deal at big numbers (5/75)?    I am thinking he could be had for a 3/36 type of deal.    

 

You can bet that no one is offering Matt Harvey that type of deal.

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Good question.   Would someone give him a 4 or 5 year deal at big numbers (5/75)?    I am thinking he could be had for a 3/36 type of deal.    

 

You can bet that no one is offering Matt Harvey that type of deal.

I think 3/$36 mm could be in the range of what Davis would get.   He picked a bad season to have an off-year, but he’s still a reliable starter.

[Sports Guy]

I could see Davies only getting a one year, prove it deal.  Would be surprised if someone gave him 10+M a year for multiple years.  But worse players have gotten that deal in the past, so who knows.

[LTO's]

It would be very Orioles to sign him to a big deal while he's on the decline when they could've had him for pennies at his peak. Good thing we didn't need starting pitching when we traded him...

[Philip]

57 minutes ago, Frobby said:

How cheap do you think he’ll be?   I think you might be surprised at how much he gets.  

If you’re referring to Davies, I can’t imagine him getting much. His current season WAR is only .4. He’s a journeyman. But there’s nothing wrong with being a journeyman. I remember Scott Feldman getting 3/30 from the Astros, and Kevin Millwood retired with 130 million( my GOD) so Davies may get 3/45 or something ridiculous like that but of course we wouldn’t bother at those prices. I’m thinking we might get him for 1/6 if he’s not too old for a pillow contract, or something like that. 
I’m sure that we won’t be buying any FAs who aren’t risky because only the risky or old will be cheap enough for to create any mutual interest

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Philip said:

If you’re referring to Davies, I can’t imagine him getting much. His current season WAR is only .4. He’s a journeyman. But there’s nothing wrong with being a journeyman. I remember Scott Feldman getting 3/30 from the Astros, and Kevin Millwood retired with 130 million( my GOD) so Davies may get 3/45 or something ridiculous like that but of course we wouldn’t bother at those prices. I’m thinking we might get him for 1/6 if he’s not too old for a pillow contract, or something like that. 
I’m sure that we won’t be buying any FAs who aren’t risky because only the risky or old will be cheap enough for to create any mutual interest

This isn’t the place a pitcher would come, especially one that has the stuff Davies does, on a one year deal unless he had no options and even though Davies isn’t good this year and has some alarming peripherals, I think he will have options.  
 

We would likely need to outbid someone but it would be moronic to get into a bidding war for a pitcher who is likely on a decline.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Philip said:

If you’re referring to Davies, I can’t imagine him getting much. His current season WAR is only .4. He’s a journeyman. But there’s nothing wrong with being a journeyman. I remember Scott Feldman getting 3/30 from the Astros, and Kevin Millwood retired with 130 million( my GOD) so Davies may get 3/45 or something ridiculous like that but of course we wouldn’t bother at those prices. I’m thinking we might get him for 1/6 if he’s not too old for a pillow contract, or something like that. 
I’m sure that we won’t be buying any FAs who aren’t risky because only the risky or old will be cheap enough for to create any mutual interest

I wouldn’t call Davies a journeyman at all.   He’s been worth 10.1 rWAR in his career, with a 108 ERA+, and has made 151 major league starts.   He’s had a subpar year and he doesn’t throw hard, so he probably won’t get as big a contract as another pitcher with similar career numbers would get, but it will be a multi-year deal worth $10 mm+ a year.   Book it.  

[RZNJ]

22 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I could see Davies only getting a one year, prove it deal.  Would be surprised if someone gave him 10+M a year for multiple years.  But worse players have gotten that deal in the past, so who knows.

See, you contradicted yourself here. Worse players have gotten that type of deal in the past but for some reason, the 29 year old Davies with a solid career, and not fall-off-the-cliff horrible has to settle for a one-year make good contract.  That makes no sense.

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I wouldn’t call Davies a journeyman at all.   He’s been worth 10.1 rWAR in his career, with a 108 ERA+, and has made 151 major league starts.   He’s had a subpar year and he doesn’t throw hard, so he probably won’t get as big a contract as another pitcher with similar career numbers would get, but it will be a multi-year deal worth $10 mm+ a year.   Book it.  

If you believe in the FG way of valuing a player, Davies has been worth 10+M Twice in the last 4 years and well under twice.  Worth about a total of 30M over the last 4 years, including just 2.5M this year. 
 

What do all the other pitching stats say?  Exit velocity, etc…have you looked that up by chance?

In other words, is there enough in his underlying stats that say him being bad this year is more flukish?  That certainly isn’t the case with FIP, K rate, etc…

[Hazmat]

What about Chad Kuhl?  He'll be 29 in September.  He will cost less than Davies.

[Aristotelian]

A possible approach with Davies would be a one year "bet on himself" contract where we overpay for the year without any longer commitment. No guarantees but he could probably turn a successful year into a 5/$100M type of contract, kind of like Semien's one year deal with the Blue Jays this year. Would 1/$15M for Davies be too much? 

[Ruzious]

16 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I wouldn’t call Davies a journeyman at all.   He’s been worth 10.1 rWAR in his career, with a 108 ERA+, and has made 151 major league starts.   He’s had a subpar year and he doesn’t throw hard, so he probably won’t get as big a contract as another pitcher with similar career numbers would get, but it will be a multi-year deal worth $10 mm+ a year.   Book it.  

You're probably right about the money he'll get, but I would rate him a journeyman at this point in his career.  If the O's signed him, I'd expect further decline pitching in the AL East - especially with half his games in Baltimore.  I'd much rather sign 1 EdRod than 2 Davies'.