The Shortstop Market, 2022

[waroriole]

43 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

If Elias really wanted CJ Abrams I would offer Mancini, Santander, and severino for Homer, clevinger, and Abrams

Pads could use both catching and OF depth. 

Clevinger hopefully becomes a trade piece

Maybe Homer plays up a bit in AL w DH option. He's not Chris Davis bad, he's won a WS and is a leader.

Pull up Adley and GrayRod and you may have a mildly competitive team next year

 

If it's me, I do not do this. 

I save the money, find a Galvis, sign a couple pitchers that don't break the bank. Go into 22 as the last true year of the full on tear it down rebuild up. I have a good draft and figure out how to manage Santander, Mancini, Mullins, Means, and Hays as far as trade, extend, or play out their contracts.

By 2023, Elias will really know how to approach the next stage of competing in the AL east

 

 

 

 

 

First of all, the Padres would be insane to do this trade. Why would anyone trade a Top 10 MLB prospect for salary relief? And you wouldn’t make this trade why? You think we could get better for two guys who couldn’t match Hosmer’s OPS this year?

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, waroriole said:

First of all, the Padres would be insane to do this trade. Why would anyone trade a Top 10 MLB prospect for salary relief? And you wouldn’t make this trade why? You think we could get better for two guys who couldn’t match Hosmer’s OPS this year?

They definitely could make a deal for salary relief.  It just depends on their situation.  They also could do it simply for roster space and maybe they would really allocate the money elsewhere.

Also, maybe they feel Abrams isn’t as good as his ranking.  If they would do that deal, I would be skeptical of how good they think Abrams is.

Personally, I would rather eat the money, cut Hosmer and keep Abrams but not everyone will think that way.  They may not want to eat that much money.

[waroriole]

47 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

They definitely could make a deal for salary relief.  It just depends on their situation.  They also could do it simply for roster space and maybe they would really allocate the money elsewhere.

Also, maybe they feel Abrams isn’t as good as his ranking.  If they would do that deal, I would be skeptical of how good they think Abrams is.

Personally, I would rather eat the money, cut Hosmer and keep Abrams but not everyone will think that way.  They may not want to eat that much money.

He doesn’t even have that bad of a contract. He gets 20M this year, but only 13M the next 3 years. Plus you’re taking on around 13M in those three guys the O’s are sending. 

[Sports Guy]

42 minutes ago, waroriole said:

He doesn’t even have that bad of a contract. He gets 20M this year, but only 13M the next 3 years. Plus you’re taking on around 13M in those three guys the O’s are sending. 

Considering he’s terrible, his contract is awful.

[waroriole]

40 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Considering he’s terrible, his contract is awful.

He hit about 20 OPS points worse than Mancini, and 20ish points better than Santander. It’s not a good contract even at 13M, but it’s surely not worth giving up Abrams. I mean, would you have given up Adley or Grayson to get rid of Davis’s contract?

I think a realistic proposal would be Means for Hosmer, Abrams, and cash. 

[Frobby]

19 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Considering he’s terrible, his contract is awful.

He’s need to produce 7.5 rWAR over four years to earn the $60 mm he’ll get at prevailing FA prices.   In the last four years he’s produced 1.7 rWAR total.   That’s not likely to get better with age.   So yeah, it’s a big loser of a contract.

[sportsfan8703]

Our “spare parts” of Mancini, Santander, and Severino, aren’t worth enough to bring back a young 3B or SS. It’s too early to start dipping into the the farm system to fill holes, especially considering that Westburg and Gunnar, are in AA. 
 

The best fit is a stop gap like a Galvis or Iglesias, and maybe see if Mateo can turn his potential into a SS option. I don’t think Galvis will cost more than the 1/1.5mm deal we have him last offseason. 

[jabba72]

From Roch's blog this morning

Quote

Urías seems to have locked up a job, whether starting in the middle or serving in a utility role. Mateo’s plus speed and arm intrigue and earn him a long look in camp. But executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias is going to check the market for an affordable middle infielder.

Nothing from the expensive shortstop bin.

Seems like spending isnt a priority again this offseason. 

[MarCakes21]

25 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

From Roch's blog this morning

Seems like spending isnt a priority again this offseason. 

At least at SS.  I think Elias is aware that he has several SS prospects that he needs to have pan out to support the Orioles rise.  If they all pan out, then you also have a 3B, and maybe a 2B.

SP and RP on the other hand....

[OriolesMagic83]

4 hours ago, jabba72 said:

From Roch's blog this morning

Seems like spending isnt a priority again this offseason. 

Is Dan Duquette doing anything?  It seems like Dumpster Dan would be a valuable addition to the front office.   Special Assistant to Elias?

[Just Regular]

With the offseason technically about to begin, here is one guess at outcomes.   To keep the combinations a little smaller, I am going to say Marcus Semien will return as Blue Jays 2B, and likewise Javier Baez Mets 2B to hang out with Lindor.   After the Wade Miley offload, I will guess even BAL can outbid CIN down the list.   Finally I'll exclude the LAD, though I'd be glad to see them keep someone and increase odds Trea Turner will be attainable by some other team for 2023.

Shortstops: Correa, Seager, Story, Simmons, Iglesias, Galvis

Serious Suitors: NYY, DET, PHI, TEX?

Other SS Openings or Wildcards: LAA, SEA, CHC, BAL

At top of market, TEX seems the Dombrowski gate crasher if they can.   They have been noisy, even if I can't quite see why.   I am going to guess Hinch and the Tigers Fielder/Miggy overpay history bears out.   When a small market team lands the rare big fish, BAL/Tejada and SEA/Cano are some of my memories where they are "early" in the offseason market, setting outcomes players like.

Correa = DET, Seager = NYY

Story has Texas ties, but Dombrowski's team is a much more suitable place to try and win before Bryce's no trade clause becomes a feature and not a bug for a team like I hope the 2023 Orioles.

Story = PHI

At this point, I could imagine noisy TEX departing the market, or perhaps wooing Semien/Baez with a SS gig if those older guys still care about that.   Similarly SEA, the Top 3 unseat JP Crawford as you are trying to peak, these others do not.  

That leaves Andrelton and recent Orioles for LAA, CHC, BAL.   The Angels SS situation of the last few years has been Orioles adjacent, they haven't had their turn with Galvis, we haven't had ours with Andrelton.  I think Andrelton may have burned some LAA bridges with his mid-year COVID peace out in 2020.   Speculation also is whatever money they have needs to go to pitching; Iglesias was fine for them

Iglesias = LAA

The Nationals have apparently early adopted 2022 Alcides Escobar at sub-Galvis money as they gear up to rival Mike Elias for bonus pools in that nice 2023 draft when all of Coby Mayo's slightly worse friends who had no team to take them at Age 18 will finally get to affiliate.   For long term probability maximization, I guess you really wouldn't want to be caught with a crappy bonus pool then.

In 2021, Galvis returned 1.1 rWAR for his $1.5 million (and some reliever who got some whiffs), Andrelton returned 1.4 rWAR for his $10 million; if we are truly Raysian, the $$$/WAR contrast shines bright.

Andrelton = CHC, Galvis = BAL

Perhaps even 50/50 if worthwhile for us to give Galvis one more Opening Day, or just try out who we've got, hopefully including Jordan Westburg if he can earn the cup of coffee.

I think Grayson Rodriguez will be asked to pitch Norfolk 5-10 times minimum, and watch out if anything goes wrong.   I can't rule him out for 2023 prospect lists yet....any hiccup could bring 10 starts / 45 MLB innings into play.

 

 

[sportsfan8703]

Good take on the SS market. If that situation plays out though, I see LAA going with Galvis as he looked like he had more in the tank than Iglesias. We would then sign Iglesias to be a solid SS that could mentor the other young infielders that we will see around the MLB team in 2022. 

[interloper]

I see us going Simmons. He's the strongest defender as Iglesias took a huge defensive step back last season. 

[sportsfan8703]

I don’t even know why I keep saying Iglesias or Galvis. I don’t see us paying any guarantees money to anyone really. I could see us bringing in someone like Ronald Torreyes that was just DFAd by the Phillies. 
 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/torrero01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-

With having Mateo and Urias as options at the MLB level, there might not be as big as of a need as the last two seasons. Plus, Martin is on the 40 man as of this post, and Grenier will be in AAA, unless he’s taken in the rule 5 draft. Westburg, Gunnar, and Ortiz all played some in AA this year too. 
 

We’re not going to compete in 2022. I’d rather us save the $ 1-2 million and use it in the Dominican. 

[Pickles]

7 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I don’t even know why I keep saying Iglesias or Galvis. I don’t see us paying any guarantees money to anyone really. I could see us bringing in someone like Ronald Torreyes that was just DFAd by the Phillies. 
 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/torrero01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-

With having Mateo and Urias as options at the MLB level, there might not be as big as of a need as the last two seasons. Plus, Martin is on the 40 man as of this post, and Grenier will be in AAA, unless he’s taken in the rule 5 draft. Westburg, Gunnar, and Ortiz all played some in AA this year too. 
 

We’re not going to compete in 2022. I’d rather us save the $ 1-2 million and use it in the Dominican. 

Who is going to play 2nd and 3rd as well?

They need to bring in one ML infielder this off-season.