How does Elias build a playoff quality pitching staff?

[emmett16]

On good teams the SP’s are going to cover 800-900 ip or about 60-70% of all innings.  Out of ~1400 total innings the bullpen is going to need to cover 500-600.  I’d say the SP is just about twice as important as the BP, but there is a lot is W’s to be had in those 500-600 innings of work.  

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

On good teams the SP’s are going to cover 800-900 ip or about 60-70% of all innings.  Out of ~1400 total innings the bullpen is going to need to cover 500-600.  I’d say the SP is just about twice as important as the BP, but there is a lot is W’s to be had in those 500-600 innings of work.  

No team is using its starters anywhere close to 70% of the time.  Oakland was the highest at 64%.   Tampa (who I think we’d agree is a good team) was at 52%.   Of course, that’s distorted by their frequent use of “openers.”   But still, most good teams today are around 60/40.   So, call it 1.5 times more important.   

[Aristotelian]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I agree, which is why I'm not in favor of speculating about sharp increases in payroll.

Sure you are in favor of speculating that they are not increasing payroll. We are both speculating. Historically the Orioles have increased payroll when they were competitive so at least my speculation has some factual basis.

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Sure you are in favor of speculating that they are not increasing payroll. We are both speculating. Historically the Orioles have increased payroll when they were competitive so at least my speculation has some factual basis.

Historically, current ownership has not increased payroll.  Should I mention how Eli Jacobs went bankrupt?  Is that relevant?  How about when Jerold Hoffberger wasn't willing to pay to keep Reggie Jackson or Bobby Grich on the team?  Is that relevant?  Those were competitive teams.

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Historically, current ownership has not increased payroll.  Should I mention how Eli Jacobs went bankrupt?  Is that relevant?  How about when Jerold Hoffberger wasn't willing to pay to keep Reggie Jackson or Bobby Grich on the team?  Is that relevant?  Those were competitive teams.

Technically, the ownership hasn’t changed in recent years.   The control person has changed.   

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Technically, the ownership hasn’t changed in recent years.   The control person has changed.   

Sure.

Not sure how that makes a difference but sure.

The sons shouldn't be judged by the father.

[sportsfan8703]

I don’t know why everyone is fixated on payroll. That’s not what is going to determine if Elias’ plan has worked. It’s clear the plan for 2023+ was to draft as many bats as possible. So naturally we have to trade our surplus bats for something.  That something being pitching. 
 

I think the pen is ready to take a big jump forward next year. It’s the group of SP that is the difference in how we proceed. If 1-2(outside of Hall and GR) develop then we could really ramp up how competitive we are. 

Edited December 22, 2021 by sportsfan8703

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I don’t know why everyone is fixated on payroll. That’s not what is going to determine if Elias’ plan has worked. It’s clear the plan for 2023+ was to draft as many bats as possible. So naturally we have to trade our surplus bats for something.  That something being pitching. 
 

I think the pen is ready to take a big jump forward next year. It’s the group of SP that is the difference in how we proceed. If 1-2(outside of Hall and GR) develop then we could really ramp up how competitive we are. 

A pretty low percentage of trades are touted prospect for touted prospect.  If they trade for pitching it will probably be for guys that are already pitching in the majors.  They might have significant payroll attached.  Folks like to say to look at what the Astros did...well they added some pricey pitchers in trades.

If payroll isn't allowed to increase any rebuild is going to be a lot more difficult, even if Elias makes all the right moves.

[Frobby]

20 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

A pretty low percentage of trades are touted prospect for touted prospect.  If they trade for pitching it will probably be for guys that are already pitching in the majors.  They might have significant payroll attached.  Folks like to say to look at what the Astros did...well they added some pricey pitchers in trades.

If payroll isn't allowed to increase any rebuild is going to be a lot more difficult, even if Elias makes all the right moves.

The last statement is self-evident.   I have no doubt payroll will be allowed to increase.   But it’s a matter of by how much.   

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Historically, current ownership has not increased payroll.  Should I mention how Eli Jacobs went bankrupt?  Is that relevant?  How about when Jerold Hoffberger wasn't willing to pay to keep Reggie Jackson or Bobby Grich on the team?  Is that relevant?  Those were competitive teams.

What is the basis for your speculation?

[now]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

Bullpens have become far more important over time than they used to be.  They’re throwing 43% of the innings.  I’d have to say the rotation is still more important because 57% of the innings still come from the starters.  

That's a pretty simplistic formula. Wouldn't it be possibly even reversed in weight, if you factor in the higher leverage (not sure what statistical term I'm thinking of here) of the later innings? Assuming of course that leverage works that way--higher, as the chances to flip a lead diminish. 

[sportsfan8703]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

A pretty low percentage of trades are touted prospect for touted prospect.  If they trade for pitching it will probably be for guys that are already pitching in the majors.  They might have significant payroll attached.  Folks like to say to look at what the Astros did...well they added some pricey pitchers in trades.

If payroll isn't allowed to increase any rebuild is going to be a lot more difficult, even if Elias makes all the right moves.

But that’s clearly the goal. You think Elias is just hoarding COF, and position players overall?

[Can_of_corn]

2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

What is the basis for your speculation?

That they have been cutting spending in nontraditional ways.

[Can_of_corn]

15 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

But that’s clearly the goal. You think Elias is just hoarding COF, and position players overall?

I think he's trying to accumulate talent.  I don't know how he's expecting to specifically leverage that talent.

[Sports Guy]

8 hours ago, now said:

That's a pretty simplistic formula. Wouldn't it be possibly even reversed in weight, if you factor in the higher leverage (not sure what statistical term I'm thinking of here) of the later innings? Assuming of course that leverage works that way--higher, as the chances to flip a lead diminish. 

The average BP definitely has a higher WPA than the average rotation.  Even the better rotations will see the pens have a higher WPA.