Keith Law's Orioles' top 20 for 2022

[mhd24]

Obviously for subscribers only, but here is the link for those who have access:

https://theathletic.com/3127589/2022/02/15/orioles-top-20-prospects-for-2022-keith-law-ranks-baltimores-farm-system/

[Sports Guy]

Some surprises, perhaps none bigger than Ortiz at 7.

[Sports Guy]

Stowers at 13 will upset some.

 

[Sports Guy]

Mayo at 9 behind Ortiz and Norby is amusing to me but I know he was high on Norby.  I get the impression he just wants to see more from Mayo.

[Sports Guy]

Westburg was one of the 14 players he identified as those who just missed his top 100 list.

[MurphDogg]

He is really high on Joey Ortiz, saying that a swing change has resulted in hitting the ball harder without a decrease in contact, noting that if he had been healthy the entire season with the same results, he almost certainly would have hit his top 100. He also states that if he maintains his production he would be surprised if Ortiz was not the Orioles starting shortstop by Labor Day.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Stowers at 13 will upset some.

 

I can see Stowers drawing some variance of opinions due to his very high K rates.   I’d have him higher but 13 is not unreasonable if you think his K rate will go even higher in the majors.   

[jamalshw]

I'm shocked how high he is on Ortiz. It appears he's his new pet (though Adam Hall is still on the list so he's not giving up that one completely quite yet). That said, I hope he's right on Ortiz. It would be huge if he was able to be the SS by the end of the year.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

He is really high on Joey Ortiz, saying that a swing change has resulted in hitting the ball harder without a decrease in contact, noting that if he had been healthy the entire season with the same results, he almost certainly would have hit his top 100. He also states that if he maintains his production he would be surprised if Ortiz was not the Orioles starting shortstop by Labor Day.

That’s crazy optimistic, but I hope he’s right.   He’s a better defender at SS than anyone in our system besides Grenier, so if he can hit at the major league level, he might be our best answer there.   

[luismatos4prez]

It's odd, he seems to really like a lot of our prospects. I get the sense that ranking us 10th was out of a general sense of "But they don't have enough international guys" than a real comparison of the talent between systems.

Also was surprised that he has guys like Adam Hall, Hudson Haskin, and Logan Gillaspie in the Top 20 but not Jean Pinto.

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, luismatos4prez said:

It's odd, he seems to really like a lot of our prospects. I get the sense that ranking us 10th was out of a general sense of "But they don't have enough international guys" than a real comparison of the talent between systems.

Also was surprised that he has guys like Adam Hall, Hudson Haskin, and Logan Gillaspie in the Top 20 but not Jean Pinto.

That’s a terrible ranking by him.  None of those guys should be too 20.

[LookinUp]

How do you take a guy like Law at this point? He's clearly either biased for/against certain guys (Hall) or just not informed on recent results and/or some of the system depth. Neither is a compliment.

Then you have Ortiz at 7. I was really high on him too, so I want to believe Law, but the blind spots are so obvious that it feels like he's taking a swing on a guy with small sample results in hopes of being "right" when he hits it big. I wonder if he does that with every team.

[Sports Guy]

17 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

How do you take a guy like Law at this point? He's clearly either biased for/against certain guys (Hall) or just not informed on recent results and/or some of the system depth. Neither is a compliment.

Then you have Ortiz at 7. I was really high on him too, so I want to believe Law, but the blind spots are so obvious that it feels like he's taking a swing on a guy with small sample results in hopes of being "right" when he hits it big. I wonder if he does that with every team.

I think he’s your normal guy that you ask to rank players in every system.  He sees more than most but I think his pride and ego stop Him from really dropping or raising players based on original assessments.

Having Baumann just outside the top 10 is a good example of that.

[MurphDogg]

I think Law can take a little longer than other prospect prognosticators to adjust his priors, but he gets there eventually (see Grayson Rodriguez).

That said, the missed 2020 season was a very unique circumstance that caused an enormous disruption in development. It almost certainly cost the Orioles a decent bullpen arm in Zach Pop.  I don't fault Law for putting less weight on 2021 for players that had success in 2019 and earlier. Time will tell whether he is correct, but I don't think it is a particularly illogical thing to do and his reasoning with Adam Hall makes sense.

It is kind of courageous of him to stick with his Hall ranking, rather than not mentioning him, but I would be surprised if it worked out for him.

[LookinUp]

I do like his actual write-ups. He provides a rationale for his thinking on everyone.

I'm not sure about his ranking order to be honest. It feels like he didn't reassess after doing the write-ups. I guess that's a hazard of working on 30 teams. For example, Mayo essentially had a great bat profile but is listed at #9. Bradish being #10 and 99% chance to be a reliever. Baumann at 12 with an ok fastball, no secondary to speak of and below average command. Hall basically getting a full pass because he's a long time favorite.

That said, he does come across as informed, but I want to see something that makes me believe Henderson can have a 70 glove anywhere on the diamond and I also want to see if he's right that Stowers' contact rate is just too poor to rank higher.