Will Adley Rutschman be on the Opening Day roster?

[maybenxtyr]

Just now, interloper said:

I would settle for one televised spring game featuring Adley before ST wraps. Not even sure that's a possibility, especially with the lack of overall televised games, but all I wanted was to get eyes on him in a few ABs this spring. Sometimes it seems even the most basic things are too much to ask. Ah, the life of an Os fan.

I'm not sure he will even be back before ST ends. 

[interloper]

3 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

I'm not sure he will even be back before ST ends. 

Yeah it's not likely he would get into a game at this point. Thankfully I paid for milb tv this year.

[maybenxtyr]

7 minutes ago, interloper said:

Yeah it's not likely he would get into a game at this point. Thankfully I paid for milb tv this year.

I hope he gets just enough time in Norfolk to get tuned up and all of the service time stuff is gone. 

[LookinUp]

Connolly said this morning on the radio that he thinks Rutschman was going to start on day 1 in Baltimore if not for the injury.

Easy to say now that he's injured and that won't be happening, but somewhat interesting nonetheless.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, maybenxtyr said:

I'm not sure he will even be back before ST ends. 

This poll was started before he got hurt. Since it’s now pretty obvious that he won’t be on the OD roster due to his injury, I’ve closed the poll now.   

[maybenxtyr]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

This poll was started before he got hurt. Since it’s now pretty obvious that he won’t be on the OD roster due to his injury, I’ve closed the poll now.   

I know. I was responding to another post about seeing him in ST.

[geschinger]

4 hours ago, LookinUp said:

Connolly said this morning on the radio that he thinks Rutschman was going to start on day 1 in Baltimore if not for the injury.

Easy to say now that he's injured and that won't be happening, but somewhat interesting nonetheless.

Wouldn't it have been a no brainer?  He'll have a legitimate shot of placing in the RoY top 2 and get a full year of service anyway.  And if he was on the opening day roster you get an extra draft pick and all the extra bonus pool money that comes along with a top 3 RoY finish.  

[LookinUp]

18 hours ago, geschinger said:

Wouldn't it have been a no brainer?  He'll have a legitimate shot of placing in the RoY top 2 and get a full year of service anyway.  And if he was on the opening day roster you get an extra draft pick and all the extra bonus pool money that comes along with a top 3 RoY finish.  

About 40% of the people in this poll didn't think it was a no brainer.

To me it would have made perfect sense to wait 2 weeks in the hopes of getting the extra year. If he was good enough to get all of those ROY votes, you lose the year and you just accept that. If he wasn't for whatever reason, at least you got that extra year.

[geschinger]

11 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

About 40% of the people in this poll didn't think it was a no brainer.

To me it would have made perfect sense to wait 2 weeks in the hopes of getting the extra year. If he was good enough to get all of those ROY votes, you lose the year and you just accept that. If he wasn't for whatever reason, at least you got that extra year.

That is the stick, what about the carrot?  Surely the number one overall prospect in baseball has decent odds of bringing back the reward of one of the extra draft picks.  My understanding of where those bonus picks end up in the draft that would have been the pick and additional draft pool money to add an additional Gunnar Henderson or Jordan Wesburg caliber pick to the system.

[LookinUp]

2 hours ago, geschinger said:

That is the stick, what about the carrot?  Surely the number one overall prospect in baseball has decent odds of bringing back the reward of one of the extra draft picks.  My understanding of where those bonus picks end up in the draft that would have been the pick and additional draft pool money to add an additional Gunnar Henderson or Jordan Wesburg caliber pick to the system.

I have no idea what the odds of him being a top 3 ROY are.

What if he gets injured and misses 6 weeks during the season?

What if other rookies come up in big media markets and get more hype?

What if other rookies play for actual contenders and have more meaningful production?

What if the O's are a laughing stock, the manager gets fired and everyone is brought down by that?

What if Stowers and Rodriguez, on our own team, out perform him?

I'd rather they try to get the year and adjust if it doesn't happen.

[geschinger]

43 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I have no idea what the odds of him being a top 3 ROY are.

What if he gets injured and misses 6 weeks during the season?

What if other rookies come up in big media markets and get more hype?

What if other rookies play for actual contenders and have more meaningful production?

What if the O's are a laughing stock, the manager gets fired and everyone is brought down by that?

What if Stowers and Rodriguez, on our own team, out perform him?

I'd rather they try to get the year and adjust if it doesn't happen.

There is alway the chance he gets injured which he did which takes the potential carrot away. 

But if not, looking at the top 3 from the last couple of years (3rd place finisher played 70 and 81 games in 21/19)  If he's anywhere near as good as advertised chances are significant that he's getting a full year of service anyway and we would have thrown away a compensatory pick and additional $2m in draft pool money. 

[LookinUp]

57 minutes ago, geschinger said:

There is alway the chance he gets injured which he did which takes the potential carrot away. 

But if not, looking at the top 3 from the last couple of years (3rd place finisher played 70 and 81 games in 21/19)  If he's anywhere near as good as advertised chances are significant that he's getting a full year of service anyway and we would have thrown away a compensatory pick and additional $2m in draft pool money. 

I don't know the answer, but I'm sure Sig could cook up a formula that incorporates the value of 2+ weeks of Rutschman in his rookie year, the expected value of Rutschman's extra year, the probability of Rutschman being top 3 in ROY voting and the expected value of a compensatory draft pick and make an informed decision about whether to hold him back or not. 

Don't have to worry about that now though.

[Il BuonO]

Rutschman is a complete, franchise-altering prospect, and one of the most exciting young players in the entire sport. He’s a switch-hitter with a hit/power combination that would probably make him an All-Star anywhere on the diamond, while also being a plus defender at the most demanding position in baseball, and an intense, vocal, charismatic leader.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-top-100-prospects/

[Aristotelian]

I would definitely go for the extra year. Just too much upside to give up.

[amdcpus]

1 hour ago, Il BuonO said:

Rutschman is a complete, franchise-altering prospect, and one of the most exciting young players in the entire sport. He’s a switch-hitter with a hit/power combination that would probably make him an All-Star anywhere on the diamond, while also being a plus defender at the most demanding position in baseball, and an intense, vocal, charismatic leader.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-top-100-prospects/

Rutschman isn't young, harper guerrero machado soto acuna etc all debuted 5 years younger than he is