What is Elias' plan to contend and what should it be?

[panick]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

They are arguably the best farm system in baseball and are arguably still top 10 of you take away the top 2 and they are about to have the first pick and a huge draft pool.

The inventory is adequate.  This is a cop out.

Teams with far less are making trades and getting real talent.  See Atlanta as the most recent example.

So you are comparing the O's roster with that of the defending WS champion?

Do you actually read what you write?

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, panick said:

So you are comparing the O's roster with that of the defending WS champion?

Do you actually read what you write?

He might have himself on /ignore.

 

[Just Regular]

Fangraphs published 12-team playoff odds today.   For one seasonal swansong of complaining about AL East, the Orioles .517 Strength of Schedule is .007 higher than the 29th toughest.   And ~.030 away from the White Sox at the other end of the spectrum.

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

Nevertheless we rate a 0.2% Make Playoffs!

Even before the Jays looming upgrade from Grichuk to Schwarber or better, they get the AL's highest Win World Series forecast, though of course their Win Division lags the White Sox and Astros by a lot.

[Sports Guy]

58 minutes ago, panick said:

So you are comparing the O's roster with that of the defending WS champion?

Do you actually read what you write?

This post makes no sense.  
 

It literally has nothing to do with my point in mentioning Atlanta.

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

I don’t know but he needs to actually show some skills in building a winner, not just tanking indefinitely. So far, lots of time to prepare for this fa kickoff and very lackluster thus far. Very disappointed in lack of aggressiveness here. Money he might have limits but lots of good fa pieces out there & trades to be had!

[Sports Guy]

The idea that we shouldn’t be bringing in difference making talent because of the fear that we could block someone is crazy to me.

As I said, we could sign Correa and still have Mayo, Gunnar and Westburg in the IF.

No one is being blocked.  
 

We Are going to be lucky to have 6-10 legit contributors from this current crop on the next legit contending team.  That means there are a lot of players that need to come from outside the organization to make up the team.

When do you propose we get those players?  Do we just sit around and wait to see which prospects pan out?  What happens when, inevitably, most of them sh!t the bed?  How much trade value do you think those guys will have then?

The idea that we just keep sitting around and hoping for the best is absolutely absurd.  It’s almost as if people just started watching baseball and believe that prospects have some 80+% success rate.  

You trade Mullins for Meyer, Lopez and Brian Anderson.  Sign Correa.  Trade Mancini to SD or wherever for some pieces that could be part of your pen or whatever down the road.  

You have just greatly improved your IF defense.  You have added another very good young arm plus a guy in Lopez who may be your best starter (close between him and Means) and one you control for a while. 

Long term, you have blocked no one.  You have the makings of an elite pitching staff, an IF that could be great and you still have the ability to play your OF prospects.  

No one is saying to go out and just start signing guys to long term deals and block a bunch of people.  But obtaining players that make you better now while keeping an eye out for the long term is what they should be doing.  

Fielding a team that, on paper, will be lucky to win 65 games isn’t something that anyone here should be ok with.  It doesn’t help you to win long term to suck again this year.  How many years of Adley and Grayson do you want to waste?   Right now, we are looking at wasting 2 years of their careers on teams that have little to no chance to contend for a title. How long until they get around a team that can win and they learn what winning is like?  

 

[Aristotelian]

Until we start winning the conspiracy theories will think that there is no plan to compete, it is all a smokescreen for a move to Nashville. Until we start winning there is no evidence to disprove the conspiracy theorists. 

Elias has said the top priority is winning a World Series (not 70 or 80 wins). We have two division rivals that are always going to have too 5 payrolls. He has mentioned Tampa as doing some good things under similar constraints. Problem is building to win that way can look the same as tanking for a long time.

 

[glenn__davis]

Did Elias ever say that the team would spend the money when "appropriate"?  I keep seeing people say they're waiting for the switch to be turned on (a sentiment that I agree with), but has he ever said that that would happen at any point?

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

Did Elias ever say that the team would spend the money when "appropriate"?  I keep seeing people say they're waiting for the switch to be turned on (a sentiment that I agree with), but has he ever said that that would happen at any point?

He has claimed they  will be able to spend down the road.

We don’t know what that means and it really doesn’t even matter.  Signing Correa to a deal where he makes 35+M doesn’t stop this team from doing anything.  That would put our payroll this year around 70M and I believe that’s the case if we keep Mancini.  

Part of that payroll is also a guy like Santander, who likely wont be here beyond 2022.  The cheap players are going to start rolling in.  The payroll is going to be nothing for a long time.  Signing someone for that much money isn’t any kind of a hindrance.

And btw, it’s not even that you have o sign Correa.  There is a great argument for not signing him.  Personally, I’d be happy with either.

What im Not happy with is the blatant laziness to not put a better product on the field right now.  I’m tired of “we need MI depth” bs and then all you do is sign players that suck. Having 4 AAAA guys isn’t depth.  It’s just bodies.  Wtf is the point in that?  And worse of all, people defend it and act like it’s a good idea.

 

[Sports Guy]

SMH

A clearer picture?  That picture isn’t clear yet?  You don’t know what you need and what you don’t need?  
 

Unreal.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

SMH

A clearer picture?  That picture isn’t clear yet?  You don’t know what you need and what you don’t need?  
 

Unreal.

I don’t have a problem with this statement.   Maybe they want to see a full season of Kjerstad and Cowser, and get a better handle on Stowers, before deciding whether to trade Mullins and/or Hays.    

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t have a problem with this statement.   Maybe they want to see a full season of Kjerstad and Cowser, and get a better handle on Stowers, before deciding whether to trade Mullins and/or Hays.    

Sure..and maybe in that time frame, Mullins gets hurt or isn’t nearly as good and carries less trade value.  
 

There are so many things that can go wrong.  And yea, things could go right too and his trade value could go up or stay the same.

We don’t know what is out there for him, so that obviously matters but if they have good trades on the table for him and are holding off to “get a clearer picture”, that’s just stupid.

I agree with not trading Hays because I don’t think he fetches much, or at least enough to trade him.  But if he does, he should be dealt too.  I mean, I really like Hays and always been a fan but his injury history means if you get a good offer for him, you move him.

[Moose Milligan]

49 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 

What im Not happy with is the blatant laziness to not put a better product on the field right now.  I’m tired of “we need MI depth” bs and then all you do is sign players that suck. Having 4 AAAA guys isn’t depth.  It’s just bodies.  Wtf is the point in that?  And worse of all, people defend it and act like it’s a good idea.

 

You're assuming that signing a guy like Owings means that they're signing him instead of Correa or Story or someone better.   I don't think a guy like Owings has to do with not making a move for a guy like Correa when they weren't going to get Correa to begin with.  

That said, I also think you're working yourself up in a tizzy over something you know deep down that isn't going to happen soon.  Might as well get upset with the sky being blue, too.  

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

You're assuming that signing a guy like Owings means that they're signing him instead of Correa or Story or someone better.   I don't think a guy like Owings has to do with not making a move for a guy like Correa when they weren't going to get Correa to begin with.  

That said, I also think you're working yourself up in a tizzy over something you know deep down that isn't going to happen soon.  Might as well get upset with the sky being blue, too.  

First of all, please stop tell me what I’m assuming because you have no clue.  
 

Secondly, this has nothing to do with Correa, so again, stop.  
 

Just try reading.

[glenn__davis]

55 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He has claimed they  will be able to spend down the road.

When did he say that?  Not really questioning you, I'm sure you're correct, I'm just not sure exactly what he said.

As far as I can tell this team has not signed a multi-year free agent deal since at least 2018.  Maybe I've overlooked someone but that's a pretty amazing feat.