How Long Will Elias Stay in Baltimore?

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, LookinUp said:

Perhaps true, though you have to like a lot of what you see, but there's no reason to totally discount 2020 is my point. The year lost delayed guys that were already in the minors. That much is true for sure.

I pointed out the 2020 draft but said there was no minor league season.

[interloper]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

The whole 2020 doesn't count excuse.  Every team had to deal with it.

Sure, but that doesn't really mean anything in the context of what wildcard was saying. Just because you can say the same for every GM in baseball doesn't invalidate the point. Every GM had a lost year and that should be factored into every GM. 

[Camden_yardbird]

3 hours ago, LookinUp said:

I think Elias is under rated here because of the ML team. I love what he's doing in the minors. It's not just about drafting top 5 guys. 

How does that differentiate from the scouting and development director in most organizations?

[LookinUp]

We can make assumptions about what other teams are doing. The Rays, Dodgers, Astros, Cardinals, A's, White Sox, and Braves are known to do things well. It's probably fair to assume that the Mariners do too at this point. Also fair to assume that the Red Sox have become a mess, Phillies aren't advanced, Nats, Mets and Angels come to mind as being pretty backwards. 

Yanks and Jays seem much more focused on the ML side. Hype aside, their systems are under producing as far as I can tell (probably unfair to the Jays considering who they've recently graduated).

But the O's trajectory is as good as anyone's. Is it premature to say they're top 5-7? Probably, after thinking about other teams, but again I love the trajectory.

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea I know you are in the contingent that we are re-inventing the wheel.

What is Happening in the minors Is great and is/was sorely needed.  But it’s not hard.  Losing on purpose isn’t hard.  
 

What matters is what you can turn that into for a ML winner.

So I stand by what I said…I don’t see him as some hot commodity until he starts to win.  It doesn’t mean he isn’t good at what he does, it just means he hasn’t really proven anything yet and until he does, it’s hard for me to believe that teams are knocking down his door to get him to come to them.

I agree with that Elias is not that hot a commodity yet.   You can be a hot commodity as an Asst. GM for a successful franchise, but once you’re in the GM chair, you have to prove yourself by winning to regain hot commodity status.  

I can’t think of many GM’s in the last 25 years who were losers with their first franchise but got a second shot at a GM job.  

That said, I don’t agree that anyone could have turned around our MiL system to the degree Elias has.   I think he’s done a first rate job there.   
 

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

Sure, but that doesn't really mean anything in the context of what wildcard was saying. Just because you can say the same for every GM in baseball doesn't invalidate the point. Every GM had a lost year and that should be factored into every GM. 

They didn't lose a year.

They had to adapt to changes in the way things were done.

Some had better results than others.

 

It's an excuse.

[geschinger]

29 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

They didn't lose a year.

They had to adapt to changes in the way things were done.

Some had better results than others.

 

It's an excuse.

Is that true - did teams really adapt to the way things were done?  Or are most players drafted in 2020 or earlier across all of baseball a year behind where they otherwise would have been?  The increased average age of players at each minor league level from 2019 compared to now implies that is the case, but if you have some other reason to explain it, I'd be curious what your theory is for that age increase.  

I think players like Adley would have most of a year of MLB experience today if there had been a minor league season in 2020.

[OriolesMagic83]

I think he will stay until he builds a team that can be a frequent playoff team or he sees that he doesn't have the backing from ownership to do what needs to be done.

I don't think he will stay indefinitely on a team w/ no real winning aspirations.  One impression I have gotten from his various speeches/interviews is that he is very involved with all aspects of the organization and holds himself and others to a high standard.  I don't see him staying around for "is this the year we win 70" type of organization.  Time will tell.  I think other MLB clubs would be interested in Elias based on him building the O's farm up and would let him know they have the money to spend for free agents. 

[OriolesMagic83]

On 3/21/2022 at 10:11 AM, yark14 said:

I see Elias being like Theo Epstein - loves building up an organization but won't stay around very long.

He can leave after he helps bring us a championship like Epstein did in Boston and Chicago. 

[Orioles0615]

I think if we are still doing the same cheap crap next year and still not trying and most prospects still aren’t up  he should be fired 

[Going Underground]

He will stay till 2023 when the Orioles lease is up. You said in Baltimore .

[Il BuonO]

Elias will never leave. He’s found baseball paradise in Baltimore. 

[big_sparxx]

major league comparables question...

If we look at Houston as the model, considering that's where Elias immediate frame of reference comes from, and that they were, for all intents and purposes in the same boat (4 seasons of 90+ losses in a row, 3 seasons of 100+ losses 2011 - 2014), they didn't actually turn the corner until 2015 (wildcard) and then didn't win a championship until 2017.

The O's are VERY similar in that we have 3 straight 100+ loss seasons (with 2020 stuck in the middle)

While it is extremely difficult to compare minor league progressions, we might assume that for the most part, Houston might have at one point looked very familiar in most aspects of an organization.

So the question must be asked, why should we expect more? Why should we be any different? Add to that, we play in the Luxury tax hell of the AL East, why should we expect to be better, faster than the Astros?

I think Elias has begun the project he was hired to do. To think he would leave, or be fired at any point in the coming years is highly delusional. His benchmarks (Houston) are there for all to see.

 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, big_sparxx said:

major league comparables question...

If we look at Houston as the model, considering that's where Elias immediate frame of reference comes from, and that they were, for all intents and purposes in the same boat (4 seasons of 90+ losses in a row, 3 seasons of 100+ losses 2011 - 2014), they didn't actually turn the corner until 2015 (wildcard) and then didn't win a championship until 2017.

The O's are VERY similar in that we have 3 straight 100+ loss seasons (with 2020 stuck in the middle)

While it is extremely difficult to compare minor league progressions, we might assume that for the most part, Houston might have at one point looked very familiar in most aspects of an organization.

So the question must be asked, why should we expect more? Why should we be any different? Add to that, we play in the Luxury tax hell of the AL East, why should we expect to be better, faster than the Astros?

I think Elias has begun the project he was hired to do. To think he would leave, or be fired at any point in the coming years is highly delusional. His benchmarks (Houston) are there for all to see.

 

Here’s an even better question…why should we care about how long it took Houston?

Again, the component to rebuilding that people don’t seem to get is that ownership wants it.  Why does ownership want it?  Do you really think it’s to build a sustained winner?  No, of course not.  They want it to be cheap and pocket as much money as possible.

The Angelos family are lawyers.  Big Pete made a lot of money off of asbestos.  They didn’t buy this for some love the sport or the team.  They bought it to make money.  And the way this has played out has made them money.  

This has never been about Elias, his plan or anything like that.  It’s about ownership not caring about the product.  

In your comparison, the Orioles could be sending out a rotation that includes Stroman AND ERod if they wanted.  They could have a much better left side of the IF they wanted.   They could have a better BP if they wanted. 
 

But ownership doesn’t want that.  And don’t worry, when this team starts winning, ownership will be out there saying, we hired the right guy, this was our plan all along, blah blah blah.  It’s all bullish!t.  It’s a lie.  
 

If you actually want to compare the teams, which we have done recently, Houston is clearly a year ahead at the same point and when you factor in the divisions, they are more than a year ahead.  But it’s not because we aren’t as smart as they were or that Elias isn’t doing his job.  He is doing a good job but he’s doing it with one arm tied behind his back and that’s the problem.

[big_sparxx]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Here’s an even better question…why should we care about how long it took Houston?

Again, the component to rebuilding that people don’t seem to get is that ownership wants it.  Why does ownership want it?  Do you really think it’s to build a sustained winner?  No, of course not.  They want it to be cheap and pocket as much money as possible.

The Angelos family are lawyers.  Big Pete made a lot of money off of asbestos.  They didn’t buy this for some love the sport or the team.  They bought it to make money.  And the way this has played out has made them money.  

This has never been about Elias, his plan or anything like that.  It’s about ownership not caring about the product.  

In your comparison, the Orioles could be sending out a rotation that includes Stroman AND ERod if they wanted.  They could have a much better left side of the IF they wanted.   They could have a better BP if they wanted. 
 

But ownership doesn’t want that.  And don’t worry, when this team starts winning, ownership will be out there saying, we hired the right guy, this was our plan all along, blah blah blah.  It’s all bullish!t.  It’s a lie.  
 

If you actually want to compare the teams, which we have done recently, Houston is clearly a year ahead at the same point and when you factor in the divisions, they are more than a year ahead.  But it’s not because we aren’t as smart as they were or that Elias isn’t doing his job.  He is doing a good job but he’s doing it with one arm tied behind his back and that’s the problem.

You're making assumptions about ownership based on what? Is this the same ownership that paid $170m for Chris Davis?

I'm using the basic logic that's in front of us. Elias came from Houston and was hired not on his ability to not spend money, but to build a franchise. You might have hired Mike Bordick if you wanted a company guy.

I understand the frustration in your reply, but I have never viewed winning as a birthright, and whether or not there is any truth in the idea that the Angelos brothers are being cheap, you have not answered the questions I asked, and if you're struggling to see the future of the Orioles, I wonder how many Astros fans felt the exact same way after losing their 3rd straight 100+ loss season.

Good luck to you. I choose to accept the fate that we have been historically bad dating back pre-2012 where we had 15 seasons of below .500 ball every year, and before that there wasn't much to write home about either. Again... not sure what you expect.

I don't know what it takes to be a fan I guess. I live to be surprised by this organization, and can not be bothered about conspiracy theories and the like.