Comparing 2022 Orioles to 2014 Astros

[Sports Guy]

When the Astros went through their tanking years, they were really bad for 3 straight seasons.  2014 is when things started to turn around.  The 2014 Astros won 70 games, which was a 19 win improvement over the previous year.  The Astros payroll went up 24 million from 2013 to 2014 but it was still just over 50M.  Of that 50M, only 9 players on the team make $1M or more and only 3 players made over 3M.  Scott Feldman was their big FA acquisition.  He signed a 3 year for 30M, a contract which was front loaded and paid him 12M in year 1.  Dexter Fowler, who they had signed the year before, made 7.85M.  Between those 2 players and 5.5M that they still Wandy Rodriguez, they represented half of the payroll.  

As I mentioned, the Astros had signed Fowler to a 2 year deal in the previous year and they gave Feldman 3 years.  They also signed Chad Qualls to a 2 year deal.  They also signed Altuve to a 4 year deal for 12.5M heading into 2014.

Interestingly, the Astros had over 10M invested in their pen, with 3M going to Jesse Crain, who never pitched for them due to an injury sustained in 2013.  Of the 9 players making 1M or more, 4 of them were relievers.

Compare this to the Orioles in 2022.  The Orioles are going to see their payroll drop to about 40M, down from 57M in 2021.  Of those players, there will be about 6 players on the team making 1M or more plus Chris Davis.  The Orioles have not given out a multi year deal since Elias got here, much less heading into that same 4th year (which is this season) the Astros did it.  

The Orioles signed their poor mans version of Feldman in Jordan Lyles and have their own Wandy Rodriguez in Davis.

In 2013, the Astros team ERA was 4.79, which was worst in the league.  In 2014, the team ERA dropped to 4.11, good for 12th in the league (2014 was definitely a pitchers year). The Astros got a big jolt from Collin McHugh, who had been DFA'ed by Colorado. He finished 4th in ROY voting and pitched to a sub 3 ERA in 154IP.  Kuechel threw 47 more innings and improved his ERA by more than 2 runs.  Feldman gave them 180 innings of sub 4 ERA baseball and 3 players who had recently been somewhere in the top 10 of their prospects rankings, Oberholzer, Cosart and Peacock appeared in 72 games (68 starts), pitched just under 400 innings and gave them an ERA of about 4.50.  Of those pitchers, only Keuchel and Peacock started for Houston the year before.

Offensively, the team was 9th in the league in OPS, 3rd in the league in homers, last in BA, 13th in OBP, second in SB, last in Ks (last meaning worst) and 9th in walks. The previous year saw the Astros finish last in OPS, last in slugging, last in OBP, next to last in BA, last in Ks and 12th in homers and walks. Altuve was becoming a force, Springer had an OPS over 800 in his first ML stint and they were starting to get other contributions from some of the role players.  Jon Singleton, who was igned to a long term deal and was thought to be their top prospect strugglked and never amounted to much at the ML level.

The 2021 Orioles finished last or near last place in practically every major pitching category. Offensively, the Orioles were better than the 2013 Astros relative to the league albeit not by much.

So, what can we take from this and our expectations for 2022 when using the Astros model and way of thinking?  Well, first off all, the Astros were already willing to give out multi year deals and commit more money to the payroll and, perhaps more importantly, increase payroll.  Secondly, the Astros pitching took a major leap and it was basically done on the backs of the players who were in the organization, although a few new vets sprinkled in were big helps. Offensively, the team started to show a lot more power and speed but wasn't scoring runs, as they finished 12th in runs both years(although the Os finished 14th last year).  

While I believe the whole "we are following this model" is bs, Elias will obviously take some things from his time in Houston. Its no secret that the key to any improvement with the Orioles is based on what we already have in the organization.  However, it is important of you to bring in some vet players that help you get better sooner.

 

Are the Orioles on this same path? The  Astros stuck with their young pitching better than the Orioles have.  They gained experience that helped prior 2014 and during 2014.  I think that approach serves Houston better at that time than the approach the Os have used.  I do think we see a lot of pitching turnover in 2022 compared to what we saw in 2021. Guys like Akin, Kremer,etc...will only get so many chances with the better pitching prospects breathing down their necks. So , the pitching will either improve a lot or we will see a different set of young arms give it a try.   Offensively, I would expect the Os have a little better 2022 than they did in 2021.  I could see some improvements in some areas and dropoffs in others and essentially cancel each other out but I do think there will be some modest improvements overall.  

[UMDTerrapins]

I’m probably more upbeat than most about 2022, mostly because of what you mentioned with our pitching. If Wells sticks in our rotation, along with Means, Rodriguez, and Lyles, we’re choosing from a lot of arms for that last spot in the rotation (Hall, Bradish, Baumann, Zimmerman, Akin, Lowther, Kremer, Wells). That’s a lot of arms, some that will find a place in the bullpen. Our offense isn’t eye popping, but it’s not bad either. I think we do see a nice win improvement this year. 

[Tony-OH]

Well researched piece, good job Rob.

I see the 2022 Orioles being better than the 2021 version for several reasons, one of which is the starting pitching HAS to be better overall. This was a tough offseason for starting pitching which was why the Orioles were so aggressive in signing Lyles before he lockout. 

The key though will be on the improvements and health of guys like T. Wells, Zimmermann, Lowther and to a lesser extent Kremer and Akin (who think are going to the pen at some point). the depth here is that Rodriguez, Bradish and maybe Baumann (though he has been suspiciously AWOL this spring) and possibly Hall are ready to give their shot if those guys fall.

The hope is that the Orioles can make some decisions on these 4th/5th guys and know what they need to do next year to fill these holes in the rotation through trades or Free agency.

They have enough offensive prospects to have a competitive lineup in 2023 so if they make a few keys pitching acquisitions, I really do think they can be a contender next year.

 

 

[Sports Guy]

26 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Well researched piece, good job Rob.

I see the 2022 Orioles being better than the 2021 version for several reasons, one of which is the starting pitching HAS to be better overall. This was a tough offseason for starting pitching which was why the Orioles were so aggressive in signing Lyles before he lockout. 

The key though will be on the improvements and health of guys like T. Wells, Zimmermann, Lowther and to a lesser extent Kremer and Akin (who think are going to the pen at some point). the depth here is that Rodriguez, Bradish and maybe Baumann (though he has been suspiciously AWOL this spring) and possibly Hall are ready to give their shot if those guys fall.

The hope is that the Orioles can make some decisions on these 4th/5th guys and know what they need to do next year to fill these holes in the rotation through trades or Free agency.

They have enough offensive prospects to have a competitive lineup in 2023 so if they make a few keys pitching acquisitions, I really do think they can be a contender next year.

 

 

In 2015, Houston won 86 games. So, they improved 35 games in 2 years.  They finished second in their division with 86 wins and won one of the WC spots.

The payroll jumped to about 72M. That was a jump of almost 50M in 2 years.

Heading into 2015, Feldman was still making the most money on the team and they continued to pour money into the pen.  Neshek and Gregerson were signed to long term deals and made 12.5M in 2015.  Jed Lowrie was their big FA signing.

The Astros saw a lot of incremental payroll increases but not many huge splashes outside of McCann prior to 2017.

They signed a lot of middling contracts which really, is a bad way to do things imo.  I wonder what Elias takes from that.

[geschinger]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

When the Astros went through their tanking years, they were really bad for 3 straight seasons.  2014 is when things started to turn around.  The 2014 Astros won 70 games, which was a 19 win improvement over the previous year.  The Astros payroll went up 24 million from 2013 to 2014 but it was still just over 50M.  Of that 50M, only 9 players on the team make $1M or more and only 3 players made over 3M.  Scott Feldman was their big FA acquisition.  He signed a 3 year for 30M, a contract which was front loaded and paid him 12M in year 1.  Dexter Fowler, who they had signed the year before, made 7.85M.  Between those 2 players and 5.5M that they still Wandy Rodriguez, they represented half of the payroll.  

As I mentioned, the Astros had signed Fowler to a 2 year deal in the previous year and they gave Feldman 3 years.  They also signed Chad Qualls to a 2 year deal.  They also signed Altuve to a 4 year deal for 12.5M heading into 2014.

Interestingly, the Astros had over 10M invested in their pen, with 3M going to Jesse Crain, who never pitched for them due to an injury sustained in 2013.  Of the 9 players making 1M or more, 4 of them were relievers.

Compare this to the Orioles in 2022.  The Orioles are going to see their payroll drop to about 40M, down from 57M in 2021.  Of those players, there will be about 6 players on the team making 1M or more plus Chris Davis.  The Orioles have not given out a multi year deal since Elias got here, much less heading into that same 4th year (which is this season) the Astros did it.  

Interestingly, the Orioles signed their poor mans version of Feldman in Jordan Lyles and have their own Wandy Rodriguez in Davis.

In 2013, the Astros team ERA was 4.79, which was worst in the league.  In 2014, the team ERA dropped to 4.11, good for 12th in the league (2014 was definitely a pitchers year). The Astros got a big jolt from Collin McHugh, who had been DFA'ed by Colorado. He finished 4th in ROY voting and pitched to a sub 3 ERA in 154IP.  Kuechel threw 47 more innings and improved his ERA by more than 2 runs.  Feldman gave them 180 innings of sub 4 ERA baseball and 3 players who had recently been somewhere in the top 10 of their prospects rankings, Oberholzer, Cosart and Peacock appeared in 72 games (68 starts), pitched just under 400 innings and gave them an ERA of about 4.50.  Of those pitchers, only Keuchel and Peacock started for Houston the year before.

Offensively, the team was 9th in the league in OPS, 3rd in the league in homers, last in BA, 13th in OBP, second in SB, last in Ks (last meaning worst) and 9th in walks. The previous year saw the Astros finish last in OPS, last in slugging, last in OBP, next to last in BA, last in Ks and 12th in homers and walks. Altuve was becoming a force, Springer had an OPS over 800 in his first ML stint and they were starting to get other contributions from some of the role players.  Jon Singleton, who was igned to a long term deal and was thought to be their top prospect strugglked and never amounted to much at the ML level.

The 2021 Orioles finished last or near last place in practically every major pitching category. Offensively, the Orioles were better than the 2013 Astros relative to the league albeit not by much.

So, what can we take from this and our expectations for 2022 when using the Astros model and way of thinking?  Well, first off all, the Astros were already willing to give out multi year deals and commit more money to the payroll and, perhaps more importantly, increase payroll.  Secondly, the Astros pitching took a major leap and it was basically done on the backs of the players who were in the organization, although a few new vets sprinkled in were big helps. Offensively, the team started to show a lot more power and speed but wasn't scoring runs, as they finished 12th in runs both years(although the Os finished 14th last year).  

While I velueve the whole "we are following this model" is bs, Elias will obviously take some things from his time in Houston. Its no secret that the key to any improvement with the Orioles is based on what we already have in the organization.  However, it is important of you to bring in some vet players that help you get better sooner.

 

Are the Orioles on this same path? The  Astros stuck with their young pitching better than the Orioles have.  They gained experience that helped prior 2014 and during 2014.  I think that approach serves Houston better at that time than the approach the Os have used.  I do think we see a lot of pitching turnover in 2022 compared to what we saw in 2021. Guys like Akin, Kremer,etc...will only get so many chances with the better pitching prospects breathing down their necks. So , the pitching will either improve a lot or we will see a different set of young arms give it a try.   Offensively, I would expect the Os have a little better 2022 than they did in 2021.  I could see some improvements in some areas and dropoffs in others and essentially cancel each other out but I do think there will be some modest improvements overall.  

The Astros opening day payroll in 2014 was $44.5. To get tho that number they raised their 2013 payroll to bee closer to the 29th highest payroll in the league from a payroll that was so low in 2013 that I think Alex Rodriguez made significantly more than their entire roster.   Even in tank mode it was unstainable to keep it that low.  

I was looking at their roster a couple of days ago and the big difference I saw between what they did and what the Orioles have done so far is they in 2014 and 2015 they signed a lot of FA pitching and outside of Qualls (2 year) and Feldman (3 year) it was all one year deals.  I think it was 5 in 2014 and then in 2015 it was another 5.   I do wisht the Orioles had added a few more arms this offseason.

A correction - the Astros didn't sign Fowler and it wasn't a multi year commitment.  They traded a disappointing prospect Jordan Lyles (their 2011 #1 overall prospect) and Brandon Barnes who was a decent player for them in 2013 for Fowler.

I'm not seeing much deviation between the 2014 Astros approach and the 2022 Orioles.  

[Sports Guy]

I think the biggest deviation is how they are handling the young pitching.  Like I said, the Astros seemed to give their guys a more consistent chance.

Now, of course, their pitchers pitched better than ours did but who cares?  The guys we had really had nothing else to prove in AAA and were plenty old enough, so let them sink or swim up here and learn.  Instead we gave 50ish starts to Lopez and Harvey in 2021.  
 

I think that’s the real takeaway from 2022.  How much time do the young players get and how are they handled?  Will it be sink or swim?  Will they be yo-yo’ed? Will the Orioles finally get players up here and not try to manipulate their service time?

If guys are healthy and performing even reasonably well in the minors, we should see a lot of guys up here by the AS break.  

[geschinger]

26 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

In 2015, Houston won 86 games. So, they improved 35 games in 2 years.  They finished second in their division with 86 wins and won one of the WC spots.

The payroll jumped to about 72M. That was a jump of almost 50M in 2 years.

Heading into 2015, Feldman was still making the most money on the team and they continued to pour money into the pen.  Neshek and Gregerson were signed to long term deals and made 12.5M in 2015.  Jed Lowrie was their big FA signing.

The Astros saw a lot of incremental payroll increases but not many huge splashes outside of McCann prior to 2017.

They signed a lot of middling contracts which really, is a bad way to do things imo.  I wonder what Elias takes from that.

Look how much of the spending to get to that $50m increase of payroll was done in 2015.  Something like 30m in new FA spending, another 30m in new spending from trades.   They saw what they had in 2014 and started trying to add to it and won 86 games.

Looking at the quotes from Elias from last year that indicate 2022 is see what the internal group does - what do they have and then add pieces.  Look at that 2015 Astros roster and tell me that isn't what Houston did.  

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, geschinger said:

Look how much of the spending to get to that $50m increase of payroll was done in 2015.  Something like 30m in new FA spending, another 30m in new spending from trades.   They saw what they had in 2014 and started trying to add to it and won 86 games.

Looking at the quotes from Elias from last year that indicate 2022 is see what the internal group does - what do they have and then add pieces.  Look at that 2015 Astros roster and tell me that isn't what Houston did.  

It is what they did.  I’m not now nor have I ever denied that.

The question is the differences in dedication of ownership.  Right now, there is zero reason to believe ownership is spending anytime soon.  We will see a natural increase in payroll, like in the mid 2010s, when these guys start to get arb raises.

But after this year, Mancini is likely gone.  Lyles is gone. Chirinos is gone.  Santander will probably be gone but that’s not definite.  But if you include Santander, that’s 18ishM gone off of this years payroll.  If they are still here, you will likely see a 9-12M jump from Means, Hays and Mullins.  You will some other modest arb raises as well, so that money lost will likely be be made up there unless those guys are traded.

So, where does the team spend and how much?  Can we rely on ownership?

The Astros also had the huge advantage of playing in a division not nearly as good as ours, so we have to do this even better than they did.

[geschinger]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think the biggest deviation is how they are handling the young pitching.  Like I said, the Astros seemed to give their guys a more consistent chance.

Now, of course, their pitchers pitched better than ours did but who cares?  The guys we had really had nothing else to prove in AAA and were plenty old enough, so let them sink or swim up here and learn.  Instead we gave 50ish starts to Lopez and Harvey in 2021.  
 

I think that’s the real takeaway from 2022.  How much time do the young players get and how are they handled?  Will it be sink or swim?  Will they be yo-yo’ed? Will the Orioles finally get players up here and not try to manipulate their service time?

If guys are healthy and performing even reasonably well in the minors, we should see a lot of guys up here by the AS break.  

I'm not sure that's the case - do you really think the Astros giving 50ish starts to Bedard and Lucas Harrell (similar age and resume to Lopez) in 2013 is all that different than Lopez and Harvey?

The Astros did a much better job giving their young guys more innings.  But is that a failure of the Orioles to let guys sink or swim or the type of results one would expect in this era of micro managing workloads a year after almost none (if any) even had 50 innings.   

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, geschinger said:

I'm not sure that's the case - do you really think the Astros giving 50ish starts to Bedard and Lucas Harrell (similar age and resume to Lopez) in 2013 is all that different than Lopez and Harvey?

The Astros did a much better job giving their young guys more innings.  But is that a failure of the Orioles to let guys sink or swim or the type of results one would expect in this era of micro managing workloads a year after almost none (if any) even had 50 innings.   

Well I’m also talking 2014 and how they let young guys pitch.  The Os may very well do that but it remains to be seen.  The way they have handled pitching hasn’t been very good, so I’m a little skeptical.

And some of those guys could have been up in 2020 getting more time too btw.  So even if the innings would have been down, they could have had more experience, especially since they weren’t getting real experience at the camps (it was better than nothing but still not much).

[Aristotelian]

Interesting 2014 Astros prospect list here. 

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/3/12/5496808/2014-houston-astros-consensus-top-43-prospects

You can see some similarities in the strategy and some comparable pieces. 

Keuchel vs Means. Means has had more success than Keuchel did but Keuchel broke out in 2014 followed by Cy Young in 2015. Either way we've got a front end starter to build around. 

Altuve vs Mullins. Both players who got a chance during the rebuild and broke out with enough years of control to become part of the core. If I had to guess, Mullins is not quite the player Altuve became but could still play a similar role. 

Correa vs Rutschman. Both top prospects in key positions to build around. So far so good. Of course, Rutschman still has to prove it but the upside is there. 

Springer vs Kjerstad/Cowser. Unfortunately we are a little behind schedule here due to COVID derailing Kjerstad. Still, either of these guys could eventually provide the same upside and hold down corner OF for years to come. 

Appel/Foltynwicz/McCullers vs Grayson/Hall/Bradish. I could see our guys doing better if Grayson succeeds. 

Hader vs Felix Bautista (?). Hader was Astros #15 and turned into one of the most dominant elite relievers in the game. We are going to have to get lucky and find an arm like that. I don't think it's going to be Jorge Lopez. Maybe Bautista provides that upside? 

Overall I'd say we're pretty close to where the Astros were at that time. However, they not only nailed their high end prospects, they also got some major unexpected contributions. And of course we are facing the additional challenge of the AL East. So it is still very possible our rebuild will be longer and more painful than theirs. 

 

[geschinger]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It is what they did.  I’m not now nor have I ever denied that.

The question is the differences in dedication of ownership.  Right now, there is zero reason to believe ownership is spending anytime soon.  We will see a natural increase in payroll, like in the mid 2010s, when these guys start to get arb raises.

But after this year, Mancini is likely gone.  Lyles is gone. Chirinos is gone.  Santander will probably be gone but that’s not definite.  But if you include Santander, that’s 18ishM gone off of this years payroll.  If they are still here, you will likely see a 9-12M jump from Means, Hays and Mullins.  You will some other modest arb raises as well, so that money lost will likely be be made up there unless those guys are traded.

So, where does the team spend and how much?  Can we rely on ownership?

The Astros also had the huge advantage of playing in a division not nearly as good as ours, so we have to do this even better than they did.

That is indeed the question.  I don't think Elias expected or even wants to be spending in 2022.  If the plan goes as expected and players develop I 100% believe he will want to increase payroll in 2023 and try to get to around .500 and then in 2024 try to contend.  Nothing that has happened to this point is something where I can confidently say ownership is preventing Elias from building the team he wants to build it.  I think we'll know one way or the other whether or not ownership is going sabotage Elias in 2023 and considering the track record there has to be concern that they will.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, geschinger said:

That is indeed the question.  I don't think Elias expected or even wants to be spending in 2022.  If the plan goes as expected and players develop I 100% believe he will want to increase payroll in 2023 and try to get to around .500 and then in 2024 try to contend.  Nothing that has happened to this point is something where I can confidently say ownership is preventing Elias from building the team he wants to build it.  I think we'll know one way or the other whether or not ownership is going sabotage Elias in 2023 and considering the track record there has to be concern that they will.

Well, Elias said he wishes he could take on money and get a prospect (ala the Cozart/Wilson deal with LA and SF) and he definitely hinted he wasn’t allowed to do that.

I disagree with this a lot.  I think any GM would like to be able to spend and win sooner.  I’m sure if the Angelos family let him, he would be out there trying to improve the team via free agency.  

[Aristotelian]

2 minutes ago, geschinger said:

That is indeed the question.  I don't think Elias expected or even wants to be spending in 2022.  If the plan goes as expected and players develop I 100% believe he will want to increase payroll in 2023 and try to get to around .500 and then in 2024 try to contend.  Nothing that has happened to this point is something where I can confidently say ownership is preventing Elias from building the team he wants to build it.  I think we'll know one way or the other whether or not ownership is going sabotage Elias in 2023 and considering the track record there has to be concern that they will.

There is always reason to be concerned when it comes to baseball owners, but is there any reason we should be especially concerned as O's fans? The organization has a decent track record of spending when trying to compete. While not as much or as consistent as NYC or BOS, the problem has been more misspending on the wrong players as opposed to not spending and lack of commitment. Is the theory that  the sons have to prove their commitment to winning and we should be "concerned" until proven otherwise? 

[Sports Guy]

18 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

There is always reason to be concerned when it comes to baseball owners, but is there any reason we should be especially concerned as O's fans? The organization has a decent track record of spending when trying to compete. While not as much or as consistent as NYC or BOS, the problem has been more misspending on the wrong players as opposed to not spending and lack of commitment. Is the theory that  the sons have to prove their commitment to winning and we should be "concerned" until proven otherwise? 

They don’t want to spend on meals and hotel rooms for announcers.  
 

I have mentioned it before but I heard from someone that they are cash poor and that person would have a pretty good knowledge of that.

They valued money saved over returns in the 2018 trade purge.

So yea, I think we have a lot of reason to worry.  It doesn’t mean they won’t do it but I think it’s foolish to assume they will especially if their goal is to sell the team.(which we don’t know)