If there is a glimmer of hope I will not give up on this season

[spiritof66]

I don't have much hope for on-field success this season, and I envy those who do. But no matter how bad the Orioles are, it doesn't have much effect on my following the team and watching games, at least until late in the season. Things should happen that will make the 2022 season interesting -- they usually do -- but when I look at what the other NL East teams are up to I don't see how this team can win more than 60-65 games. After canceling the automatic renewal of my mlb.tv subscription, I signed up yesterday for this season, and I'm now watching the O's-Rays game. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

The one upside to this season is we should see more of the young prospects who will be on the O's next winning team play in 2022. But unless the pitching seriously surprises this is going to be a long season. I'm hoping at some point we see a starting rotation that features Means, Rodriguez and Hall even if it's only for a few turns. 

[Frobby]

When you say you won’t give up on the season, what do you mean?   Are you suggesting you are holding out some hope that the O’s will overcome astronomical odds and make the playoffs?  Or are you saying you’re not giving up on them being a 70+ win team?

We’ve seen two pretty drastic turnarounds in Orioles history.  In 1989, the team went from 54 wins to 87.   In 2012, they went from 69 to 93.    So, we know these things can and do happen, even to the Orioles.   We also know they don’t happen often.   

So, I’m not going to sit here and say it’s impossible that the O’s could win 85 games this year, which would be +33 as in 1989.    But I think the odds of that occurring are so small that I’m not even going to hope for it.   If that turns out to be wrong, well great.  But I’d rather set my hopes at a level where there’s a 20% chance it could happen.   And I’d say that’s 70 wins.   I’m expecting less, hoping for that.   And I won’t give up on that for at least half the season, no matter how bad we play.   
 

[Moose Milligan]

@wildcard, dude, you are the glimmer of hope around here. 

[MurphDogg]

4 hours ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

I said it when it happened (and everyone knows my thoughts on Elias), Mateo was a great pickup. Urias seems to have come ready too but his ceiling isn’t what Mateo’s is obviously.  Big fan of Mateo. I also want to see McKenna make the team and DJ Stewart waived, another awful first round pick.

I have posted this before but I will post it again. No first round pick that spends a significant amount of time in the Majors is an awful first round pick, and certainly not one that is picked #25 overall.

Of the 20 players picked around Stewart (10 before and 10 after), 7 have not made the Majors, 4 have negative career rWAR, 5 have rWARs between 0 and 2 and 4 have rWARS above 2. Stewart is slightly above the middle of the pack with his career 0.5 rWAR among his draft cohort.

[wildcard]

35 minutes ago, Frobby said:

When you say you won’t give up on the season, what do you mean?   Are you suggesting you are holding out some hope that the O’s will overcome astronomical odds and make the playoffs?  Or are you saying you’re not giving up on them being a 70+ win team?

We’ve seen two pretty drastic turnarounds in Orioles history.  In 1989, the team went from 54 wins to 87.   In 2012, they went from 69 to 93.    So, we know these things can and do happen, even to the Orioles.   We also know they don’t happen often.   

So, I’m not going to sit here and say it’s impossible that the O’s could win 85 games this year, which would be +33 as in 1989.    But I think the odds of that occurring are so small that I’m not even going to hope for it.   If that turns out to be wrong, well great.  But I’d rather set my hopes at a level where there’s a 20% chance it could happen.   And I’d say that’s 70 wins.   I’m expecting less, hoping for that.   And I won’t give up on that for at least half the season, no matter how bad we play.   
 

What I see is an increase in the talent level for the O's.   Bradish and Tyler Wells added to the rotation with Means and Lyles.  Grayson coming up in a month.  

Adley added to the middle of the lineup and making an impact at catcher.  Mateo and Urias filling holes in the infield as productive players.

Bautista and Baker added to the pen.

I like the thought of 85 wins and competing for the playoffs.   Time will tell if that kind of hope is realistic.     But I will not rule it out to begin the season.  

I don't want to see Mancini traded if he can help to begin the season, but I understand that if Elias gets the right deal he will go.   Who replaces that offensive production will be important to the 2022 O's.

I may have to adjust my hopes as the season moves on.   But I will stay positive because there are players coming that I think make that possible. 

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, wildcard said:

What I see is an increase in the talent level for the O's.   Bradish and Tyler Wells added to the rotation with Means and Lyles.  Grayson coming up in a month.  

Adley added to the middle of the lineup and making an impact at catcher.  Mateo and Urias filling holes in the infield as productive players.

Bautista and Baker added to the pen.

I like the thought of 85 wins and competing for the playoffs.   Time will tell if that kind of hope is realistic.     But I will not rule it out to begin the season.  

I don't want to see Mancini traded if he can help to begin the season, but I understand that if Elias gets the right deal he will go.   Who replaces that offensive production will be important to the 2022 O's.

I may have to adjust my hopes as the season moves on.   But I will stay positive because there are players coming that I think make that possible. 

Good thoughts.   My main reason for thinking a 33-win improvement is out of reach is the quality of the AL East right now.   In both 1989 and 2012 we happened to improve just as a few other AL East teams were retrenching a bit.   I don’t see that at all right now.  That’s why my hopes center around a more modest win increase.   But, as you hint above, just seeing some improved talent hitting the major league squad will be worth watching.

[Just Regular]

The 2010-2012 Nationals went from 69-80-98 wins as they debuted Strasburg (now 32 career WAR) and Harper (now 40 career WAR).    Cot's lists the 2010-2015 Nationals Opening Day payrolls rank 24-21-17-10-8-6.    The few years preceding they were Bottom 5 all the time.

The hope is, whatever shenanigans happen the next month or two, we get two cornerstones in the same year, and start to see if Adley and Grayson can play at a 7-win level collectively for a decade.

The 2022 Orioles are DOA, but with any luck we'll see something far brighter than a glimmer this summer.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

The 2010-2012 Nationals went from 69-80-98 wins as they debuted Strasburg (now 32 career WAR) and Harper (now 40 career WAR).    Cot's lists the 2010-2015 Nationals Opening Day payrolls rank 24-21-17-10-8-6.    The few years preceding they were Bottom 5 all the time.

The hope is, whatever shenanigans happen the next month or two, we get two cornerstones in the same year, and start to see if Adley and Grayson can play at a 7-win level collectively for a decade.

The 2022 Orioles are DOA, but with any luck we'll see something far brighter than a glimmer this summer.

The Nationals had a 7 win player and a 4 win player last year.

They won 65 games.

[Just Regular]

15 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The Nationals had a 7 win player and a 4 win player last year.

They won 65 games.

The Orioles had a 6-win player and a 4-win player last year.

They won 52 games.

A GM may care more about the bottom two-thirds of his roster if the first four guys can push 20 wins.   I would say or if his job's on the line, except that I think we agree ownership is generally content with Elias' performance to date.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

The Orioles had a 6-win player and a 4-win player last year.

They won 52 games.

A GM may care more about the bottom two-thirds of his roster if the first four guys can push 20 wins.   I would say or if his job's on the line, except that I think we agree ownership is generally content with Elias' performance to date.

I'm just saying that The Big Two aren't going to do it on their own.

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

1 hour ago, MurphDogg said:

I have posted this before but I will post it again. No first round pick that spends a significant amount of time in the Majors is an awful first round pick, and certainly not one that is picked #25 overall.

Of the 20 players picked around Stewart (10 before and 10 after), 7 have not made the Majors, 4 have negative career rWAR, 5 have rWARs between 0 and 2 and 4 have rWARS above 2. Stewart is slightly above the middle of the pack with his career 0.5 rWAR among his draft cohort.

Stewart’s class was def bad, but why not go pitching there? Odds tougher but what we needed at the time. 
 

Completely understand and agree on the success thing but you gotta aim superstar when you are just so bad for so long. When in doubt, go pitching or SS.

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

39 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

The 2010-2012 Nationals went from 69-80-98 wins as they debuted Strasburg (now 32 career WAR) and Harper (now 40 career WAR).    Cot's lists the 2010-2015 Nationals Opening Day payrolls rank 24-21-17-10-8-6.    The few years preceding they were Bottom 5 all the time.

The hope is, whatever shenanigans happen the next month or two, we get two cornerstones in the same year, and start to see if Adley and Grayson can play at a 7-win level collectively for a decade.

The 2022 Orioles are DOA, but with any luck we'll see something far brighter than a glimmer this summer.

Rizzo is really good. Cade Cavelli (picked like 20 behind Kjerstad) might be in their starting rotation this year. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

Stewart’s class was def bad, but why not go pitching there? Odds tougher but what we needed at the time. 
 

Completely understand and agree on the success thing but you gotta aim superstar when you are just so bad for so long. When in doubt, go pitching or SS.

Dan wanted an OBP guy.

[spiritof66]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

  .    .    .

I like the thought of 85 wins and competing for the playoffs.   Time will tell if that kind of hope is realistic.     But I will not rule it out to begin the season.  

I don't want to see Mancini traded if he can help to begin the season, but I understand that if Elias gets the right deal he will go.   Who replaces that offensive production will be important to the 2022 O's.

I may have to adjust my hopes as the season moves on.   But I will stay positive because there are players coming that I think make that possible. 

I don't see where those wins can come from with almost half the Orioles' games against the NYYs, RS, Jays and Rays. Do you think any of those teams will finish behind the Orioles, or will decisively lose the season series with the O's? I don't.