Colton Cowser 2022

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

 

Look at the two bolded statements.   It seems simple to me.   Your opinion based on what you've read clearly isn't how Elias felt about Lawlar at the time of the 2021 draft.   Just answer this question.    Do you think Elias would have been unwilling to pay Lawlar's price if he thought Lawlar was a special talent and a franchise type SS?

Yes I do.

Well actually, that’s a bad question.  In a vacuum, yes I think he would pay it.  But in a system that they are in with slot bonuses, overslots, etc…I don’t think he was paying it.

But if there was no cap or anything like that, I think he chooses Lawlar.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, btdart20 said:

I ignore it.  But I also find it annoying with no value-add and a waste of time.  So, I end up ignoring everything posted by various posters I lump in that type of category.  I imagine I'm part of the silent majority who follow the "don't feed the trolls" mantra.

There are a lot of no value add posts on this site.  I ignore most of them.  The ones I want to respond to, I do.  It’s not hard.

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes I do.

Well actually, that’s a bad question.  In a vacuum, yes I think he would pay it.  But in a system that they are in with slot bonuses, overslots, etc…I don’t think he was paying it.

But if there was no cap or anything like that, I think he chooses Lawlar.

Ok.  Got it.   You think Elias passed on a player he thought could be a franchise SS, so he had extra money to spend on a corner OF (Rhodes) and HS catcher (Willems).   Then you do think he's stupid.

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Ok.  Got it.   You think Elias passed on a player he thought could be a franchise SS, so he had extra money to spend on a corner OF (Rhodes) and HS catcher (Willems).   Then you do think he's stupid.

I don’t think he’s stupid.  I think he just decided that spreading out the money was the better play.  
 

And btw, while that was your question, I don’t think that matters either.  He could have determined that he was an AS level player at SS or second but perhaps not a franchise guy.  I’m not even saying I think Lawlar is some franchise defining talent even though that is where you have decided to take the conversation.  
 

I just don’t think he wanted to pay him and miss out on overslots later.(even though he still could have signed them). Btw, he didn’t know those were his options.  Maybe he would have paid Lawlar had he known?  We know he wanted Fabian, so maybe it just backfired on him.

I think it’s very possible he thought very highly of Lawlar but felt he was getting Cowser and Fabian and that was worth it to him.

I also have my doubts about the Angelos family being ok with giving up that much money to a HS kid although that theory will hopefully be proven wrong next month.  But if this is true, then it’s not Elias’ fault at all.  I can’t give ownership a pass on anything until proven otherwise, especially with info I have been told about their finances.

[Flash- bd]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, I agree with him if the premise of his argument is that you take BpA.  I believe they passed on a higher player on their board to take a cheaper option to do other stuff later.  I think that’s poor and to me, even if Cowser turns out to be the better player, I will judge the process and not result.

For me, it really has nothing to do with Cowser himself.  It’s the totality of everything that bothers me.

What makes you so sure? They could've evaluated them as similar level prospects, and decided that they didn't prefer Lawlar to any notable or significant point (if at all) for it to be worth paying him more / allotting a bigger part of the slot.

 

In fact I think this is the most likely assumption. 

[RZNJ]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t think he’s stupid.  I think he just decided that spreading out the money was the better play.  
 

And btw, while that was your question, I don’t think that matters either.  He could have determined that he was an AS level player at SS or second but perhaps not a franchise guy.  I’m not even saying I think Lawlar is some franchise defining talent even though that is where you have decided to take the conversation.  
 

I just don’t think he wanted to pay him and miss out on overslots later.(even though he still could have signed them). Btw, he didn’t know those were his options.  Maybe he would have paid Lawlar had he known?  We know he wanted Fabian, so maybe it just backfired on him.

I think it’s very possible he thought very highly of Lawlar but felt he was getting Cowser and Fabian and that was worth it to him.

I also have my doubts about the Angelos family being ok with giving up that much money to a HS kid although that theory will hopefully be proven wrong next month.  But if this is true, then it’s not Elias’ fault at all.  I can’t give ownership a pass on anything until proven otherwise, especially with info I have been told about their finances.

You don't think it's stupid to pass on someone you deem as an all-star SS to spread money around later?    I thought you did.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Flash- bd said:

What makes you so sure? They could've evaluated them as similar level prospects, and decided that they didn't prefer Lawlar to any notable or significant point (if at all) for it to be worth paying him more / allotting a bigger part of the slot.

 

In fact I think this is the most likely assumption. 

Ok.  I disagree.  It’s just that simple.  

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

You don't think it's stupid to pass on someone you deem as an all-star SS to spread money around later?    I thought you did.

I think it’s a stupid decision because I think going BPa is always the way to go.  It doesn’t mean I think Elias is stupid.  You talk about me being black and white, your entire line of questioning is black and white.

I have provided my thoughts, beliefs and reasons.  You can choose to disagree.  That’s fine.  I’m sure you will be doing the same thing if he takes Berry over Jones and you will convince yourself that Elias is the only guy in baseball who sees Berry as the best pick.  That’s fine.  If you want to believe in that, that’s your choice.  
 

I just choose to believe something else.

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think it’s a stupid decision because I think going BPa is always the way to go.  It doesn’t mean I think Elias is stupid.  You talk about me being black and white, your entire line of questioning is black and white.

I have provided my thoughts, beliefs and reasons.  You can choose to disagree.  That’s fine.  I’m sure you will be doing the same thing if he takes Berry over Jones and you will convince yourself that Elias is the only guy in baseball who sees Berry as the best pick.  That’s fine.  If you want to believe in that, that’s your choice.  
 

I just choose to believe something else.

I don't choose to believe that Elias is right or wrong at this point.   I choose to try and understand why he does what he does.   I think he's smart (I could be wrong) so when he does something that seems odd or against consensus I try to understand his reasoning, and I assume that he had good reasons for doing it.   I don't assume his process was wrong or right.   I wait for the results before passing judgement.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, RZNJ said:

I don't choose to believe that Elias is right or wrong at this point.   I choose to try and understand why he does what he does.   I think he's smart (I could be wrong) so when he does something that seems odd or against consensus I try to understand his reasoning, and I assume that he had good reasons for doing it.   I don't assume his process was wrong or right.   I wait for the results before passing judgement.

You say you choose to try and understand what he’s doing.

 

I am too…and I believe what he is doing is giving himself as many bullets in the chamber as possible.  That he is saying this is a crap shoot and I want to spread it out.

Now, I do not believe that is his theory every draft.  Every draft is different.  COVID effected some things.  We will see how he handles it going forward but I do believe this has been his thought process the last 2 years although I can buy that Kjerstad was second on his board.

[RZNJ]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Ok.  I disagree.  It’s just that simple.  

Fine, but it seems stupid to me for you to believe that Elias viewed Lawlar as a future All-star ML SS, and passed for monetary reasons.   He was willing to pay Fabian 1.12M over slot and he's a guy who carries a lot of risk.   If he felt Lawlar was a pretty sure thing, I'm pretty sure, he would have paid up.    It would be dumb not to.

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

You say you choose to try and understand what he’s doing.

 

I am too…and I believe what he is doing is giving himself as many bullets in the chamber as possible.  That he is saying this is a crap shoot and I want to spread it out.

Now, I do not believe that is his theory every draft.  Every draft is different.  COVID effected some things.  We will see how he handles it going forward but I do believe this has been his thought process the last 2 years although I can buy that Kjerstad was second on his board.

Crap shoot is a lot different than saying Lawlar was a fairly safe pick as a future all-star SS.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Fine, but it seems stupid to me for you to believe that Elias viewed Lawlar as a future All-star ML SS, and passed for monetary reasons.   He was willing to pay Fabian 1.12M over slot and he's a guy who carries a lot of risk.   If he felt Lawlar was a pretty sure thing, I'm pretty sure, he would have paid up.    It would be dumb not to.

I never said that’s how he viewed him.  That was your question and your assumption. 
 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Crap shoot is a lot different than saying Lawlar was a fairly safe pick as a future all-star SS.

I never said anything about him being a safe pick.  You keep lying about what I’m saying.  I will never say a HS kid is a “safe pick”.  Hell, Bundy was supposed to be a safe pick.

He is a high upside pick though and I definitely value that, especially when your system needs high level talent and your sole purpose on the ML level is to lose games.

This team must generate their high level, elite talent from within.  Ownership will not pay for it otherwise.

[RZNJ]

27 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I never said that’s how he viewed him.  That was your question and your assumption. 
 

 He could have determined that he was an AS level player at SS or second but perhaps not a franchise guy.  (SportsGuy)

No that was your assumption!

My assumption is that Elias didn't think Lawlar was special, didn't think he was a future all-star SS, and passed.