Colton Cowser 2022

[nvpacchi]

58 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I tend to agree with this. I'm not sure what he's going to be next year at this point. Are the k's a transition-to-new-swing issue or something that's going to be an issue throughout his career?

Yeah maybe we have to start preparing for life with Cowser as a 27-28% K rate guy.  That'd put him in the bottom 10 among qualifiers of MLB players this year - concerning.  But if the power is real, he can still be successful.

Quick glance of the leader board brought me to Matt Chapman, who had a 27.7% K rate this year with a .210 ISO and a 10.9% BB rate - which is still a 122 wRC+ line.

Cowser could potentially walk even more than that and he should have a higher hit tool than Chapman.  But that K rate may just hold him back for ever tapping into more than that.

Edited September 26, 2022 by nvpacchi

[Frobby]

I’m not very worried about Cowser.  He may still be refining a few things, but he’s had a very solid season.  He’s done well in AAA after his first ten games (.298/.385/.597 over his last 14 games).  I think he’ll come into 2023 ready to excel at Norfolk and demonstrate he’s ready for a midseason promotion to Baltimore. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I’m not very worried about Cowser.  He may still be refining a few things, but he’s had a very solid season.  He’s done well in AAA after his first ten games (.298/.385/.597 over his last 14 games).  I think he’ll come into 2023 ready to excel at Norfolk and demonstrate he’s ready for a midseason promotion to Baltimore. 

Be disappointing if it takes to mid season for that.

[sportsfan8703]

18 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Be disappointing if it takes to mid season for that.

I'm hoping for OD.  He should get a ton of ABs in ST.  We desperately need his skillset.  

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, nvpacchi said:

Yeah maybe we have to start preparing for life with Cowser as a 27-28% K rate guy.  That'd put him in the bottom 10 among qualifiers of MLB players this year - concerning.  But if the power is real, he can still be successful.

Quick glance of the leader board brought me to Matt Chapman, who had a 27.7% K rate this year with a .210 ISO and a 10.9% BB rate - which is still a 122 wRC+ line.

Cowser could potentially walk even more than that and he should have a higher hit tool than Chapman.  But that K rate may just hold him back for ever tapping into more than that.

Agree in general that his K% will be higher than average and ultimately won't fit the narrative regarding his plus hit tool.  But Pollyanna here likes to think that 27-28% might be a little high once he adjusts.  With how fast he was promoted, it's hard to get a read on what adjusting looks like for him though.  I hope, with his purported hit tool, it'll land in the 22-24% range.  Hoping a Hoskins-type player is his floor.  Cowser's batted ball profile isn't as pull heavy and being a lefty with some speed should help bump the babip a bit.  

[RZNJ]

The keys, which we don't know, is why he's striking out so much and is it something he can improve upon.   Does he have trouble with certain zones?   Does he have trouble with breaking pitches and/or changeups.   Most of his homers (most of everyone's probably) seem to be on waist high or higher fastballs.   I've seen him swing and miss a bit on low breaking pitches (of course they are tough for everyone).   He's shown improvement during the season so the hope is that he is not a finished product by any means.  I certainly was expecting a player with more of 20% strikeout rate.  Not 25% or higher.   The power has been a very nice development though.   One more for 20 and he looks like he could eventually be capable of 30+.   The question is, can he be a plus hitter AND tap into that power?

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Be disappointing if it takes to mid season for that.

Not to me.  But in any event, I wasn’t being literal with midseason.  What I mean was, at some point after the start of the season. Couid be May, could be August, depending on how he does and how our other outfielders are doing.  

[Ridgway22]

Colton Cowser a big finish at AAA, batting .311 last 15g. Also Cowser has scored 113 runs this year, 3rd in all of minors.

Bonus, Jordan Westburg now has 106 RBIs.

[OriolesMagic83]

4 minutes ago, Ridgway22 said:

Colton Cowser a big finish at AAA, batting .311 last 15g. Also Cowser has scored 113 runs this year, 3rd in all of minors.

Bonus, Jordan Westburg now has 106 RBIs.

Good to see we have some great run producers in the minors.  I know most people are into advanced stats on the Hangout, but I like some guys who produce runs. 

[NashLumber]

1 hour ago, Ridgway22 said:

Colton Cowser a big finish at AAA, batting .311 last 15g. Also Cowser has scored 113 runs this year, 3rd in all of minors.

Bonus, Jordan Westburg now has 106 RBIs.

I saw the last two Tides games, Sunday in Durham and tonight in Norfolk. Cowser hit a bomb on Sunday in a losing effort, and two hits tonight. And Westburg hit a bases loaded double, scoring three runs in the 8th. 

Edited September 27, 2022 by NashLumber

[Frobby]

OPS at Norfolk up to .771 with two games left.  He probably needs 4 times on base and 6 total bases in those two games to get to .800 OPS.  

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

OPS at Norfolk up to .771 with two games left.  He probably needs 4 times on base and 6 total bases in those two games to get to .800 OPS.  

Nice to see him get his feet on the ground.   I suspect he's returning to Norfolk to start next season but he's on the fast track.

[LookinUp]

23 hours ago, btdart20 said:

With how fast he was promoted, it's hard to get a read on what adjusting looks like for him though. 

I think this is a good and fair point.

He does seem to go through some quick stretches where he hits like he's drunk or something, but then tends to settle in pretty nicely.

[Sports Guy]

 

[jamalshw]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

 

Is it bad that this makes me like him more than anything he did on the field this year?