Connor Norby 2022

[Jammer7]

4 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Of course, what did Westburg and Henderson look like at this time last year.   Both struggled quite a bit at Aberdeen at times, IIRC.   Cowser has stepped up his game this month.  He's still isn't where we want him to be which is raking at Bowie but he's come back from a deep hole.    Norby, obviously is struggling right now.   I'd say it's either related to that beaning or he's going through something similar to Cowser was with zoning in.  Who knows.   Like you said, Rhodes looks pretty good and Trimble hasn't even played a game yet.

This is where I am. It is optimistic, but I think it is warranted based on what they did in 2021 after the draft, along with all of the information we have at hand. Their start is disappointing, but I feel it is way too early to call the ‘21 draft a poor one.

[Jammer7]

12 hours ago, seak05 said:

Elias has a preference for college bats, and that’s not going to change. However, if he sees someone who he thinks is with it, he’s willing to step outside the mold. I would expect the same this year. 

He has had a preference for college bats, so far, with Baltimore. I think it had more to do with having higher floors in some cases. Not wanting to miss on an opportunity to add talent. His recent comments that he needed to build position player depth for the past several years in the organization make sense to me. It could be that we are where he wants to be, depth-wise. Or at least close enough that he feels good about taking a higher risk grab at Druw Jones or other HS guys. 

I wonder how much influence he had in the 2012 draft when the Astros picked Carlos Correa, Lance McCullers, Rio Ruiz and Brett Phillips in the top several round of their draft. They took Brady Aiken, Kyle Tucker, Dax Cameron and several other risky HS players in his years there. Their drafts were still mostly college players though. 

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

He has had a preference for college bats, so far, with Baltimore. I think it had more to do with having lower floors in some cases. Not wanting to miss on an opportunity to add talent. His recent comments that he needed to build position player depth for the past several years in the organization make sense to me. It could be that we are where he wants to be, depth-wise. Or at least close enough that he feels good about taking a higher risk grab at Druw Jones or other HS guys. 

I wonder how much influence he had in the 2012 draft when the Astros picked Carlos Correa, Lance McCullers, Rio Ruiz and Brett Phillips in the top several round of their draft. They took Brady Aiken, Kyle Tucker, Dax Cameron and several other risky HS players in his years there. Their drafts were still mostly college players though. 

Correa was Elias’ guy.  

[Jammer7]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Correa was Elias’ guy.  

I know he had input, but I don’t know if Luhnow made that deal. Like Elias does with Ciolek overseeing the draft. 

[geschinger]

1 hour ago, Jammer7 said:

He has had a preference for college bats, so far, with Baltimore. I think it had more to do with having lower floors in some cases. Not wanting to miss on an opportunity to add talent. His recent comments that he needed to build position player depth for the past several years in the organization make sense to me. It could be that we are where he wants to be, depth-wise. Or at least close enough that he feels good about taking a higher risk grab at Druw Jones or other HS guys. 

I wonder how much influence he had in the 2012 draft when the Astros picked Carlos Correa, Lance McCullers, Rio Ruiz and Brett Phillips in the top several round of their draft. They took Brady Aiken, Kyle Tucker, Dax Cameron and several other risky HS players in his years there. Their drafts were still mostly college players though. 

I see a preference for collge bats but he'll pick his shots for over slot HS talent.  I think the position player bias is much stronger than HS/College which I think is related to learnings from Houston.  During the years he was there I think every first round pick position player has made the majors and either been a contributor or a vaulable trade chip while every pitcher has been a failed pick although finally 9 years later Appel - their 2013 MLB pick got called up by the Phillies.

The willingness to go way over slot for HS players each year tells me he's willing to take some risks but if there is no one special enough to justify over slot it's stick to college players.

[geschinger]

9 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

I know he had input, but I don’t know if Luhnow made that deal. Like Elias does with Ciolek overseeing the draft. 

I've heard Elias described as being the driving force behind Correa being picked #1.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, geschinger said:

I've heard Elias described as being the driving force behind Correa being picked #1.

How about Appel?

[geschinger]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

How about Appel?

While I can't recall any of the stories of him personally scouting Appel like he did with Correa I have to assume he was heavily involved if not the driving force for that pick as well.  When I look at the Astros picks during his time there I can't blame him for only looking at bats at the top of the draft.  

[Just Regular]

Just noticed first few LF innings tonight.   I don't have a good handle on how to read this regime flexing guys nowadays...in the past I might have said if you can't keep an everyday job at your primary position in A+ ball that's not a great sign for your forecast, and maybe even worse if 2B was already your primary position.

[OriolesMagic83]

50 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Just noticed first few LF innings tonight.   I don't have a good handle on how to read this regime flexing guys nowadays...in the past I might have said if you can't keep an everyday job at your primary position in A+ ball that's not a great sign for your forecast, and maybe even worse if 2B was already your primary position.

The O's have a ton of 2B prospects.  I'm glad they're thinking about some positional flexibility now instead of when he's at AAA.

[Frobby]

Norby is another guy who seems to be thriving following his promotion.  He’s hitting .393/.485/.571 in his 7 games at Bowie.  Good times!

[Sports Guy]

7 hours ago, Frobby said:

Norby is another guy who seems to be thriving following his promotion.  He’s hitting .393/.485/.571 in his 7 games at Bowie.  Good times!

And could be yet another reason you don't draft Johnson.

[Frobby]

20 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And could be yet another reason you don't draft Johnson.

I don’t see that being a reason.   First, you don’t draft for need.   Second, Johnson has a significantly higher offensive upside.   There are other reasons we might not draft Johnson, but Norby shouldn’t be one of them.  

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t see that being a reason.   First, you don’t draft for need.   Second, Johnson has a significantly higher offensive upside.   There are other reasons we might not draft Johnson, but Norby shouldn’t be one of them.  

Yea, you don't draft for need but you also don't ignore it entirely.

Whoever the Orioles draft should be ready to be in Baltimore within 2-3 years.  The Orioles have candidates for second base and should be covered.  Of course, trades can be made, which is why you don't necessarily worry about need but when you have a lot of options at one position and you have your choice of other areas of need, I think it should play a role in the decision.  Perhaps a small role but a role nonetheless.

Lets put this another way.  Norby, like Johnson, is second base only.  You just paid him 1.7M last year.  Are you committed another 7 figures to a second base only guy one year later?  Is that the best use of a #1 pick and another high pick?

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea, you don't draft for need but you also don't ignore it entirely.

Whoever the Orioles draft should be ready to be in Baltimore within 2-3 years.  The Orioles have candidates for second base and should be covered.  Of course, trades can be made, which is why you don't necessarily worry about need but when you have a lot of options at one position and you have your choice of other areas of need, I think it should play a role in the decision.  Perhaps a small role but a role nonetheless.

OK, I won’t say zero role.  If the top two were a starting pitcher and a catcher, I’d give an edge to the pitcher for us right now.   I don’t think Norby is a sure thing by any means and I expect Johnson to be much better, so this isn’t a case where need (or lack of it) would come into play for me right now.