Connor Norby 2022

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

OK, I won’t say zero role.  If the top two were a starting pitcher and a catcher, I’d give an edge to the pitcher for us right now.   I don’t think Norby is a sure thing by any means and I expect Johnson to be much better, so this isn’t a case where need (or lack of it) would come into play for me right now.   

Well Norby isn't the only guy.  Vavra, Westburg, et al are also in play.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well Norby isn't the only guy.  Vavra, Westburg, et al are also in play.

Fair point.  

[RZNJ]

All things being equal, need would be one of the tiebreakers.   Let's just say, it's great to see Cowser and Norby off to good starts after being a bit disappointing overall at Aberdeen.   Way too early to say this, just as it was to bury the 2021 draft as poor, but if these two can continue to excel at Bowie, it puts a whole new light on the 2021 draft.

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

All things being equal, need would be one of the tiebreakers.   Let's just say, it's great to see Cowser and Norby off to good starts after being a bit disappointing overall at Aberdeen.   Way too early to say this, just as it was to bury the 2021 draft as poor, but if these two can continue to excel at Bowie, it puts a whole new light on the 2021 draft.

Not really.  I never had doubts about Cowser and Norby, to me, was always a high floor/low ceiling pick.

My doubts about the draft were based on 2 things:

1) Not selecting Lawlar

2) Not taking advantage of the savings for going with Cowser 1.

Neither of those 2 things can be fixed.

[IPlayGM]

7 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

All things being equal, need would be one of the tiebreakers.   Let's just say, it's great to see Cowser and Norby off to good starts after being a bit disappointing overall at Aberdeen.   Way too early to say this, just as it was to bury the 2021 draft as poor, but if these two can continue to excel at Bowie, it puts a whole new light on the 2021 draft.

I feel like this overall line of thinking about draft for need is a little bit of Oriole fan trauma.  Like we have to draft need because the cupboard is always bare. My thought is that you keep drafting good players and signing International good players, this line of thinking goes away. This is what I would believe Elias is doing, flooding the system with talent so you rarely would ever draft “for need”.

[RZNJ]

11 minutes ago, IPlayGM said:

I feel like this overall line of thinking about draft for need is a little bit of Oriole fan trauma.  Like we have to draft need because the cupboard is always bare. My thought is that you keep drafting good players and signing International good players, this line of thinking goes away. This is what I would believe Elias is doing, flooding the system with talent so you rarely would ever draft “for need”.

Agreed.  You just want good players and create quality depth throughout the system.   The positions kind of take care of themselves or you have enough depth to trade one position of depth for one of need.

[RZNJ]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Not really.  I never had doubts about Cowser and Norby, to me, was always a high floor/low ceiling pick.

My doubts about the draft were based on 2 things:

1) Not selecting Lawlar

2) Not taking advantage of the savings for going with Cowser 1.

Neither of those 2 things can be fixed.

A little early to be discounting Rhodes and Willems, which is where the savings went.

What do you consider Cowser's low ceiling to be?

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

A little early to be discounting Rhodes and Willems, which is where the savings went.

What do you consider Cowser's low ceiling to be?

I never said Cowser had a low ceiling.  I said Norby did.

And I disagree.  Those aren’t the types of players you go underslot for in R1 to obtain.  You do that to obtain high level guys that dropped for signability reasons, ala the Pirates.  

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

I never said Cowser had a low ceiling.  I said Norby did.

And I disagree.  Those aren’t the types of players you go underslot for in R1 to obtain.  You do that to obtain high level guys that dropped for signability reasons, ala the Pirates.  

And, of course, the final results don't matter to you.    If Cowser becomes a more valuable ML player than Lawlar, doesn't make a difference, right?   If Rhodes becomes an all-star OF and the Pirates picks don't pan out, means nothing right.    Doesn't matter that Rhodes was considered a first round pick after his freshman year.  Correct?   Nothing matters except your opinion, right?

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

And, of course, the final results don't matter to you.    If Cowser becomes a more valuable ML player than Lawlar, doesn't make a difference, right?   If Rhodes becomes an all-star OF and the Pirates picks don't pan out, means nothing right.    Doesn't matter that Rhodes was considered a first round pick after his freshman year.  Correct?   Nothing matters except your opinion, right?

Well nothing matters to me but my opinion…yes. 

I don’t care about your opinion and I’m not sure why it matters to you what I think.

And btw, you could have had Lawlar, a higher ceiling guy with your second pick and still ended up with Rhodes.   This is why the process matters to me. 

[LookinUp]

I agree that need does factor, ever so slightly, into the #1 pick. It's particularly true when the guy you might target with an under slot strategy might not be better than what you already have in-house at the same position.

I'm not saying Johnson won't end up better than Norby, Westburg, Prieto, Vavra, Hernaiz or whomever at 2B, but I think the odds of that aren't as strong as people might assume. 

No way I'm taking Johnson if I'm the O's. 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I agree that need does factor, ever so slightly, into the #1 pick. It's particularly true when the guy you might target with an under slot strategy might not be better than what you already have in-house at the same position.

I'm not saying Johnson won't end up better than Norby, Westburg, Prieto, Vavra, Hernaiz or whomever at 2B, but I think the odds of that aren't as strong as people might assume. 

No way I'm taking Johnson if I'm the O's. 

Yea I mean, need has to be looked at somewhat with an early pick.

I don’t care if it’s a HS kid or not, the player you take 1 should move fast.  That guy should be in Bowie to start 2024 and is a a good few hundred at bats from the majors.  This shouldn’t be some long, drawn out process ofdevelopment.   Manny was drafted in 2010 and was in the majors in 2012.  That should be the expectation for whoever they choose here, so yes the idea of need should play some factor.  How much is up for debate (and I agree it shouldn’t be a huge factor by any means) but it should be a factor nonetheless.

[sportsfan8703]

56 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I never said Cowser had a low ceiling.  I said Norby did.

And I disagree.  Those aren’t the types of players you go underslot for in R1 to obtain.  You do that to obtain high level guys that dropped for signability reasons, ala the Pirates.  

That was the plan. The Red Sox just snagged Jud Fabian before we could. So we scrambled to spend the savings on Rhodes and Willems. 
 

Everyone got screwed the by Red Sox. They didn’t sign Fabian. We didn’t get to draft and sign him. Fabian had to go back to NCAA. 

Edited July 7, 2022 by sportsfan8703

[Frobby]

So far at Bowie, Norby has only struck out 3 times in 33 PA.   That’s after striking out 50 times in 209 PA at Aberdeen, including 31 of 100 PA after returning from being hit in the face.   It’s remarkable how he’s been able to flip the switch after his promotion.   

[LookinUp]

20 minutes ago, Frobby said:

So far at Bowie, Norby has only struck out 3 times in 33 PA.   That’s after striking out 50 times in 209 PA at Aberdeen, including 31 of 100 PA after returning from being hit in the face.   It’s remarkable how he’s been able to flip the switch after his promotion.   

So his k rate almost doubled for a month + after getting hit in the face. Interesting.

I'm not shocked by him doing better in AA because it sure seems like a much better hitter's league for whatever reason but also because I think he was due to hit his stride again.

IIRC, his ops was mid .800's before being hit, so it's not like he was struggling up until that moment.