Gunnar Henderson 2022

[baltimoriole]

38 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

They loved Mancini and how have they played since his departure?

I don't discount clubhouse leaders or chemistry, but winning and doing well is the best way to build that chemistry. 

The team is 43-49 when Odor plays and 11-2 when he doesn't. 

No one can convince me that he makes the team better with his veteranosity. Some fans thought Mancini was the "heart and soul" of the clubhouse, but they are 3-0 without him. 

Talent is what matters most, not Veteranosity. Odor has been worth -0.3 rWAR and and his xWOBA is in the bottom 3% of the league among qualifiers and despite the folks that talk about his defense his -6 OAA is second worse in baseball only ahead of Kolten Wong.

The only thing that is keeping Henderson off this roster is either his controllability long term and keeping his rookie status for next year so he can gain them an extra draft pick. 

I'm a dummy, how does holding back Henderson gain the Orioles an extra draft pick?

[seak05]

47 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Well we do know how he's operated so far, but that was while the team was not competitive. Will he bring up players before it's most advantageous to their controllability if he thinks they give his major league team the most chance to win? So far the answer to that is no, at least not this year.

Gunnar, GRod, Stowers, Westburg and Hall should all be watched closely to see how he handles promotions to the major leagues.

 

I don’t think we do? Which prospects had clearly demonstrated success over time at triple a during elias’ tenure?

Adley for one, but he got injured 

Bradish coming off big September didn’t make OD roster but was recalled before super 2 deadline 

Vavra demonstrated success and was called up 

hall hasn’t demonstrated sustained success 

Gunnar/Grayson have had very short stints at triple a so far. I know we’re impatient but Gunnar hasn’t even been at triple a two months yet. I don’t think that’s really out of line for how most organizations operate 

[Can_of_corn]

Mountcastle won an MVP at AAA and didn't get called up.

[seak05]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Mountcastle won an MVP at AAA and didn't get called up.

Mountcastle not making the OD roster is probably the best data point, but it's clouded by the fact that he can't really play defense, and I don't think Elias is a fan of his playing style, so I'm not sure it was entirely about service time.

I think next years OD roster will be highly illuminating, if Gunnar and Grayson are on it, they're clearly not as worried about service time...and if they're in Triple A, there's clearly service time gaming going on (with the rosters no longer expending in September, anecdotally I've noticed a lot fewer prospect debuts in Aug/Sept across organizations, and there are 40 man considerations as well)

[Number5]

15 minutes ago, baltimoriole said:

I'm a dummy, how does holding back Henderson gain the Orioles an extra draft pick?

Holding him back, alone, doesn't gain them an extra pick, but keeping his rookie status intact for next year could - if he finishes in the top 3 in the ROY voting.  Yes, sportswriters - who have done such a swell job over the years with the HOF voting - now have a say in what teams get extra draft picks.

[Sports Guy]

Do you guys think Henderson just comes up and just immediately years it up?

Realistically, if you bring him up in late April next year, it takes a month or so for him to settle in.  Let him settle in now.  I’m astonished some of you have said you don’t see the value in that.

[owknows]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Do you guys think Henderson just comes up and just immediately years it up?

Realistically, if you bring him up in late April next year, it takes a month or so for him to settle in.  Let him settle in now.  I’m astonished some of you have said you don’t see the value in that.

I suspect that the longer he goes in AAA, the quicker he'll adjust to MLB.

But there will still be an adjustment.

[owknows]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Do you guys think Henderson just comes up and just immediately years it up?

Realistically, if you bring him up in late April next year, it takes a month or so for him to settle in.  Let him settle in now.  I’m astonished some of you have said you don’t see the value in that.

And just so I'm clear... I'm with you.

I'd rather have him up and adjusting now.

[seak05]

22 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Do you guys think Henderson just comes up and just immediately years it up?

Realistically, if you bring him up in late April next year, it takes a month or so for him to settle in.  Let him settle in now.  I’m astonished some of you have said you don’t see the value in that.

I think there's value to that strategy in September. I think there's very little value to that strategy right now though, since you would lose the chance at the extra draft pick. You're also making an assumption that he doesn't start the season on the OD roster. 

I think you balance that with the fact that if you wait till next year, you don't have to put him on the 40man roster this fall and that gives you more flexibility there

[geschinger]

2 hours ago, seak05 said:

I don’t think we really know his normal MO to be honest. I think he clearly believes that players should succeed at every level, so Grayson wasn’t going to be on the OD roster. But if we take him at his word (so who knows) the plan seems to have been for Adley to be on the OD roster pre-injury. 
 

Gunnar will be an interesting test case, as he will also have already succeeded at triple A when spring training comes around.

I agree with this, that we don't know. My guess is if Adley didn't get injured he'd have been on the OD roster.  For top ten in MLB prospects chances are not low that said player (like I believe Adley will this year) will earn a full year of service time anyway.

[IPlayGM]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

They loved Mancini and how have they played since his departure?

I don't discount clubhouse leaders or chemistry, but winning and doing well is the best way to build that chemistry. 

The team is 43-49 when Odor plays and 11-2 when he doesn't. 

No one can convince me that he makes the team better with his veteranosity. Some fans thought Mancini was the "heart and soul" of the clubhouse, but they are 3-0 without him. 

Talent is what matters most, not Veteranosity. Odor has been worth -0.3 rWAR and and his xWOBA is in the bottom 3% of the league among qualifiers and despite the folks that talk about his defense his -6 OAA is second worse in baseball only ahead of Kolten Wong.

The only thing that is keeping Henderson off this roster is either his controllability long term and keeping his rookie status for next year so he can gain them an extra draft pick. 

And it’s not like by replacing Odor with Gunnar you replace a beloved guy with a jerk. By all accounts Gunnar is a clubhouse guy too.

[Sports Guy]

59 minutes ago, seak05 said:

I think there's value to that strategy in September. I think there's very little value to that strategy right now though, since you would lose the chance at the extra draft pick. You're also making an assumption that he doesn't start the season on the OD roster. 

I think you balance that with the fact that if you wait till next year, you don't have to put him on the 40man roster this fall and that gives you more flexibility there

Why would you not bring him up in Sept but then start next year in the majors?  That makes little sense.  

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Do you guys think Henderson just comes up and just immediately years it up?

Realistically, if you bring him up in late April next year, it takes a month or so for him to settle in.  Let him settle in now.  I’m astonished some of you have said you don’t see the value in that.

I agree that letting him settle in this year is better than next April. Saying that, I see the value in keeping his rookie status next year with the draft pick rule in finishing top 2/3 (can't remember).

Meanwhile though, I'd be giving Vavra PAs at 2B.

[seak05]

20 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Why would you not bring him up in Sept but then start next year in the majors?  That makes little sense.  

Gunnar doesn't need to be added to the 40 man yet, and you need to re-add people that are on the DL, so he takes up a spot you could use to protect someone from the 40 man. If you add him in spring training, you can move someone to the 60 day DL to solve the crunch (an example would be the newly acquired Seth Johnson, he will need a 40 man spot in November, but he'll go on the 60 day DL in the spring) 

[Sports Guy]

24 minutes ago, seak05 said:

Gunnar doesn't need to be added to the 40 man yet, and you need to re-add people that are on the DL, so he takes up a spot you could use to protect someone from the 40 man. If you add him in spring training, you can move someone to the 60 day DL to solve the crunch (an example would be the newly acquired Seth Johnson, he will need a 40 man spot in November, but he'll go on the 60 day DL in the spring) 

I don’t think there is anyone on the 60 day IL that you put back on the 40 man roster.

There are  at least 12 spots and maybe as many as 16 easily available on the 40 man and they only need to add 6 guys to the roster this offseason.

The 40 man excuse is both weak and wrong.