Keith Law notes on Aberdeen players

[Sports Guy]

• The Orioles took outfielder Colton Cowser with the fifth pick last year, making him the highest-drafted player in the history of Sam Houston State. He went to Low A to finish the summer and mashed there, so there was reason to hope he’d be a fast mover through the lower minors, but he’s gotten off to just a so-so start for High-A Aberdeen. I saw the Ironbirds play Saturday night, with their lineup loaded with the team’s best healthy hitting prospects. Cowser has a great left-handed swing that should lead to 55 power and strong batting averages, although on Saturday he was held hitless, with just a well-hit sacrifice fly to show for his efforts. He’s punched out 20 times in 51 plate appearances so far this year, though, which shocks me, given not just the swing but also his performance last year.

• Connor Norby was Baltimore’s second pick, taken with the 41st selection, and he’s continued the great start to his pro career that began last year, hitting .286/.367/.500 so far for the Ironbirds with a strikeout rate just over 20 percent. I love Norby’s swing, which I think will end up producing more singles and doubles with maybe 15 or so homers. He hit several balls hard Saturday, staying on a curveball and showing no difficulty with 95 from a right-hander, while also showing some range to his right at second base.

• Donta’ Williams was Baltimore’s fourth-round pick last year, a fourth-year junior out of the University of Arizona who walked more than he struck out as a Wildcat last spring. He’s close to that this year for Aberdeen, with nine walks and 11 strikeouts as I write this, showing plus speed on the bases and some extra-base power. He might get to more consistent hard contact if he can keep his hips and his hands synced up better — it’s not on every swing, but his hips do leak open sometimes, and he loses contact quality as a result. He did sync it up beautifully on a key triple that might have left the park on another night.

• Outfielder John Rhodes was Baltimore’s third-round pick in 2021 after a disappointing spring at the University of Kentucky, where he hit just .251/.397/.508, but he’s off to a hot start for Aberdeen, hitting .357/.500/.500 through eight games. The visuals don’t match up — his bat speed might rank only sixth on this roster — but he’s controlling the zone so far and making contact.

• Shortstop Collin Burns, the Orioles’ sixth-rounder last year, could stand to walk more — he has zero free passes on the season — but has some sneaky bat speed and has put the ball in play a ton since signing last year, with above-average running speed to go with it. He might have a future as a utility infielder if he can get on base a little more.

• Coby Mayo came in as a pinch hitter, so I would say I saw him … but I didn’t really see him. That’s still an incredibly wide stance, though, and I wonder if he can get to what has to be plus raw power (just given his size) from that setup. He’s also a very large presence at third base. He might scare some runners into just giving up before they reach the bag.

• Right-hander Justin Armbruester was 93-96, but he’s very stiff with a big stab in the back of his delivery and no average second pitch — the curveball was a 35. He was Baltimore’s 12th-round pick last year and is probably just an org pitcher.

• TT Bowens is leading Aberdeen in walks and is second on the team in OBP, but he’s 24 and tied with Norby, who is 21, for the team lead in slugging. He’s a DH at best and is in High A, beating up on younger pitching. He needs to move up to Double A for some age-appropriate competition.

 

 

[Sports Guy]

https://theathletic.com/3265011/2022/04/21/minor-league-scouting-orioles-nationals-rangers-prospects/?source=user_shared_article

[MurphDogg]

I don't think cutting and pasting 8 paragraphs from an article that isn't free to read is allowed. 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, MurphDogg said:

I don't think cutting and pasting 8 paragraphs from an article that isn't free to read is allowed. 

Well, it’s not the whole article!  

[MurphDogg]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Well, it’s not the whole article!  

I read this earlier and considered posting a link but I didn't think it merited its own post because I didn't find any of it particularly insightful, except for the portion about Armbruester. While I assumed that the 12th round pick was likely an org guy, I did find it useful to hear that Law didn't think any of his secondary pitches were average.

[interloper]

12 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

I don't think cutting and pasting 8 paragraphs from an article that isn't free to read is allowed. 

Yeah but it's Keith Law so I wouldn't feel too bad. 

[Hank Scorpio]

13 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

I don't think cutting and pasting 8 paragraphs from an article that isn't free to read is allowed. 

Too late!!! Already read it. 

Quick someone cleanse my eyes.

[interloper]

Quote

 

He might get to more consistent hard contact if he can keep his hips and his hands synced up better — it’s not on every swing, but his hips do leak open sometimes, and he loses contact quality as a result

 

 

 

Does anyone really buy that Keith Law can scout this kind of stuff accurately? I really do not. He's a baseball writer. He could say literally anything about a guy's swing and no one is going to challenge it. We'll just kind of nod along. He can just say whatever because 99% of the people who read him are not baseball scouts. 

[jabba72]

16 minutes ago, interloper said:

Does anyone really buy that Keith Law can scout this kind of stuff accurately? I really do not. He's a baseball writer. He could say literally anything about a guy's swing and no one is going to challenge it. We'll just kind of nod along. He can just say whatever because 99% of the people who read him are not baseball scouts. 

You can read Matt Blood interviews or listen to the verge podcast if you want an optimistic view on Orioles prospects. Theres a ton of that content out there. Law's writing about a 4th round pick who probably will never be on any top 100 lists. I dont think anything he wrote is outrageous.

[interloper]

3 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

You can read Matt Blood interviews or listen to the verge podcast if you want an optimistic view on Orioles prospects. Theres a ton of that content out there. Law's writing about a 4th round pick who probably will never be on any top 100 lists. I dont think anything he wrote is outrageous.

Not saying it's outrageous at all, or even wrong, and it's not the critical aspect of it that I'm concerned about at all. I just like to rag on Keith Law. He really, really fancies himself a pro scout. And I'm just saying a baseball writer can literally write anything about a prospect's swing or mechanics or whatever and no one will ever really know if it's correct. Just making a silly observation is all. 

[NCRaven]

25 minutes ago, interloper said:

Does anyone really buy that Keith Law can scout this kind of stuff accurately? I really do not. He's a baseball writer. He could say literally anything about a guy's swing and no one is going to challenge it. We'll just kind of nod along. He can just say whatever because 99% of the people who read him are not baseball scouts. 

Keith Law - "During his time with the Blue Jays, he acted as a major league and minor league scout, contract negotiator, and provided assistance to the team's marketing and sales staffs.^[3] Law reached the position of "Special Assistant to the GM" before resigning in 2006 to work at ESPN.^["

[NCRaven]

Like an true blue, orange blooded, Oriole loving Baltimoron, I hate Keith Law.  But, he's not without experience in these matters.

[interloper]

8 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

Keith Law - "During his time with the Blue Jays, he acted as a major league and minor league scout, contract negotiator, and provided assistance to the team's marketing and sales staffs.^[3] Law reached the position of "Special Assistant to the GM" before resigning in 2006 to work at ESPN.^["

Bahhh, it's been 16 years since he was a pro scout! 

 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

Does anyone really buy that Keith Law can scout this kind of stuff accurately? I really do not. He's a baseball writer. He could say literally anything about a guy's swing and no one is going to challenge it. We'll just kind of nod along. He can just say whatever because 99% of the people who read him are not baseball scouts. 

He was a scout with Toronto before he was a baseball writer.   Whether he was a good scout is anyone’s guess.  

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 hour ago, Hank Scorpio said:

Too late!!! Already read it. 

Quick someone cleanse my eyes.