The first 30 games vs. the next 30

[Frobby]

Has the first 30 games of the year really told us anything?   Maybe, but I think the next 30 will tell us a lot more.

2021: 14-16 in first 30; 8-22 next 30.

2020: 14-16 in first 30; 11-19 next 30.

2019: 10-20 in first 30; 9-21 next 30.

2018: 8-22 in first 30; 11-19 next 30.

2017: 20-10 in first 30; 11-19 in next 30.

By the way, that 8-22 last year in the second 30 immediately preceded a 1-14 stretch.

So, in the recent past, we’ve been up and down in the first 30 games, but the second 30 has been consistently terrible.   If this is truly an improved team, this is the time to show it.

 

[btdart20]

Past performance does not guarantee future outcome (and all the other regulatory disclaimers)!  

If the pitching can keep a measured marathon pace instead of a frantic burnout sprint from prior years...  

[RZNJ]

2017 20-10. Wow. I don't remember!

[Just Regular]

Using the YTD winning percentages of the opponents, I get a back of envelope split of weighted winning percentage

Games 1-30: .553

Games 31-60: .495

That counts Cardinals once in Group 1, twice in Group 2, etc.

Both sets include 7 with the scorching Yankees, who we will be mostly done with for the season by May 25th.   If they traded Aaron Judge to Toronto then, we might play him 30+ times this year.

31-60 includes, I suppose thanks to lockout compression, a 5-game series at Fenway in late May, that should be a good test of whether the pitching has melted.

Tigers-Red Sox-Cubs-Royals are 40% of the set with teams struggling a good deal so far this year.

[Frobby]

27 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

2017 20-10. Wow. I don't remember!

Eventually they got to 22-10 before they melted down.  I actually posted a thread around that time asking if this was Buck’s best Orioles team.   Pretty embarrassing in hindsight.   SSS is one of those things we all know in our brains, but it’s hard to resist the temptation to extrapolate when things are going well.

[SteveA]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Eventually they got to 22-10 before they melted down.  I actually posted a thread around that time asking if this was Buck’s best Orioles team.   Pretty embarrassing in hindsight.   SSS is one of those things we all know in our brains, but it’s hard to resist the temptation to extrapolate when things are going well.

The real meltdown was in September that year.   Weren't they still at .500 as late as late August?

[spiritof66]

9 minutes ago, SteveA said:

The real meltdown was in September that year.   Weren't they still at .500 as late as late August?

That's what I remember. In hindsight, through August the 2017 Orioles look like a .500-ish team, with streakiness that I don't think is unusual. The hot streak at the beginning of the year stood out like the batting average of a so-so hitter who starts the season on a tear and leads the league for a while.

The Orioles shut out the Jays, 1-0, on September 1, to raise their record to 69-66. For the rest of the season, they were 6-21. That's what I remember. The end of good-to-very- good Orioles baseball arrived a bit prematurely and very decisively. 

https://www.baseball-almanac.com/teamstats/schedule.php?y=2017&t=BAL

[Spy Fox]

20 minutes ago, SteveA said:

The real meltdown was in September that year.   Weren't they still at .500 as late as late August?

 

1 minute ago, spiritof66 said:

That's what I remember. In hindsight, through August the 2017 Orioles look like a .500-ish team, with streakiness that I don't think is unusual. The hot streak at the beginning of the year stood out like the batting average of a so-so hitter who starts the season on a tear and leads the league for a while.

The Orioles shut out the Jays, 1-0, on September 1, to raise their record to 69-66. For the rest of the season, they were 6-21. That's what I remember. The end of good-to-very- good Orioles baseball arrived a bit prematurely and very decisively. 

https://www.baseball-almanac.com/teamstats/schedule.php?y=2017&t=BAL

They were 71-68, one game out of a WC spot, on September 5 after Manny hit a walkoff HR against the Yankees.
 

But that was basically the last moment of contending baseball for the Showalter O’s. 

[Just Regular]

I think the 2012 Orioles weren't projected as badly as the 2022 Orioles, but 2012 was such magic because it was can't believe we are actually this good.    I'm open to the hope this team has actual upside in a month.

Adley Rutschman's Supporting Cast minus John Means through 30 games today has basically the same run differential as the Blue Jays and White Sox.    If three of the best Orioles hit the ground running as they have been soooo meticulously prepared to do, I can see hanging in spitting distance of .500 for awhile.

In the aggregate are Hays-Mullins-Mountcastle-Santander-Mancini over their skis?   Are they DeNiro as young Vito Corleone Oscar-worthy?    Can Adley Rutschman's team outplay Spencer Torkelson's team this weekend when the Tigers have put their $40M push on the field and Adley and Grayson are in Norfolk?   It's fun watching everyday right now.

 

[crowmst3k!]

3 hours ago, SteveA said:

The real meltdown was in September that year.   Weren't they still at .500 as late as late August?

I remember when they traded for Jeremy Hellickson at the deadline, and he proceeded to be absolutely for the O's.  
The starting pitching was just razor thin anyway, and the O's hung around in spite of it.  Hellickson did absolutely nothing to improve things.  

Things could have gone better, too. Wade Miley forgot how to pitch effectively for a season. Gausman and Bundy were ok, but just OK, and the O's made some questionable personnel moves: like giving the corpse of Chris Tillman a starting rotation slot.  

That was a very frustrating year.  

[Jammer7]

Too many factors to really say what to expect. We did play a lot of 2021 playoff and division leading teams. We went 2-7 against the Yankees and Rays early. A lot of close games along the way. Adding Bradish, losing Means, adding Nevin, adding Rutschman soon and perhaps DL Hall soon after. Urias has not hit. Hays and Santander have stayed healthy, certainly not something to bank on going forward. I think the hitters were still adjusting to the new hitting philosophy, to some extent. Many balls were crushed right at fielders.

The swing decisions are the one tangible thing that gives me hope of continued steady offensive output. Several RH hitters are barreling balls to RF as well. The approaches and processes of the hitters is unique for us Orioles fans.

Pitching-wise, there may be some bumps in the road with such a young group. The rotation seems pretty solid as long as they can skip a guy now and then, or go with six starters on occasion. Tyler Wells is only going to be able to keep this pace up for so long. Can Watkins sustain his success? IDK. The pen seems a little fragile as Tate and Baker have struggled some recently. We don’t have any idea yet what we have in Logan Allen. The league will adjust to Krehbiel. And we never know what to think of Fry.

There could be others called up, injuries, trades, and so on. I just hope they stay relatively healthy and keep competing. 

[coe76]

Checked the schedule for this year.  After 30 games our opponents had a collective record of 149-125

The next 30 games, which takes us halfway through a 4 game set with Kansas City, has a current opponent’s record of 122-147

Hopefully the next 30 games will give the O’s a chance for improved success.

[oriole]

This will be a fun post to resurrect in 30 games

[Frobby]

23 minutes ago, oriole said:

This will be a fun post to resurrect in 30 games

Yep, that’s kind of the point.  Hopefully we’ll look back and say we had a much stronger second 30 games than we did in any of 2017-21.   But that remains to be seen.  

[Morgan423]

7 hours ago, Frobby said:

SSS is one of those things we all know in our brains, but it’s hard to resist the temptation to extrapolate when things are going well.

Indeed.

I don't expect them to continue to punch above their weight like this... but just keeping something near their current YTD pace and winning 65-70 would be a huge YoY improvement, and a great sign that we're progressing as intended.