Olney on trade deadline

[BohKnowsBmore]

19 hours ago, Just Regular said:

Last night I saw a bit of Red Sox-Mariners, and they had a graphic BOS 1B had a .240-ish OBP year-to-date.

Triston Casas only .360-ish OBP in AAA, working on stuff.    He might need to work on it all year.

Of course I want Trey to get to chase a dogpile, and not sure the 2022 Red Sox offer that.   The 5-game series at Fenway with us soon an opportunity for them - they do seem to be playing a bit better lately.

Luke Voit was mentioned in the thread as a comp for Mancini. His struggles (sub-.600 OPS) may make the Padres an interesting destination for Mancini if this keeps up. Also, of note, despite the additioanl year of team control, Voit was acquired in the offseason, when the other options were more plentiful. A good bat that is available is often a bit more difficult to come across mid-season.

[seak05]

24 minutes ago, waroriole said:

The logjam problem at OF/1B/DH has arrived. There has to be a trade soon, especially with Stowers at Norfolk. Assuming everyone is healthy tomorrow, one of these 6 will be sitting. Which one is traded? My guess is Santander 

Mullins

Hats

Santander

Mancini

Mountcastle

Rutschman 

It's nice to be able to rest guys, and still have someone decent on the bench, but yeah definitely think the Orioles will deal at least one of them (not Rutschman obvi)

[RZNJ]

I would look to move Mountcastle and/or Santander.   Let Hays and Mullins stay and hopefully build up further trade value.   Mountcastle is always going to be a pretty good bat, free swinger, and not a very good 1B (I have no idea what the stats say).    He has some value based on production and service time.    This is the time to trade Santander before he gets hurt and while his production is pretty good.   He's a nice player when healthy.

Mancini has close to no value, IMO.   Check back at the deadline or see where we stand at the end of the season.

[eddie83]

9 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I would look to move Mountcastle and/or Santander.   Let Hays and Mullins stay and hopefully build up further trade value.   Mountcastle is always going to be a pretty good bat, free swinger, and not a very good 1B (I have no idea what the stats say).    He has some value based on production and service time.    This is the time to trade Santander before he gets hurt and while his production is pretty good.   He's a nice player when healthy.

Mancini has close to no value, IMO.   Check back at the deadline or see where we stand at the end of the season.

I would be surprised they deal Mancini if it’s for a lottery ticket. He means too much to the organization. 
 

I think Ryan has big time upside. That’s limited by being a 1B but I think his ceiling is higher than what we have seen by a good bit. 

[Just Regular]

I just don't see a clog here.   Adley Rutschman is a catcher.

Yes we were fire-hosing plate appearances his way after mono, covid.     C/1B/DH Adley-RMC-Trey about as fine a group as OF Hays-Mullins-Santander - we have assets at six positions.

For sure the first month or two deployment we'll see but I'd guess he hits 50 catcher games before 10 games off catcher.

 

[RZNJ]

41 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

I would be surprised they deal Mancini if it’s for a lottery ticket. He means too much to the organization. 
 

I think Ryan has big time upside. That’s limited by being a 1B but I think his ceiling is higher than what we have seen by a good bit. 

I disagree on Mountcastle.   He's going to have good streaks but he's always going to be a guy who expands the zone.   I don't see him being much more than what we've seen the last two years.

[waroriole]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I disagree on Mountcastle.   He's going to have good streaks but he's always going to be a guy who expands the zone.   I don't see him being much more than what we've seen the last two years.

Agreed. He’s had 2 years now to show he can be selective at the plate but there’s no improvement. As a matter of fact, his BB rate has gone down every year so far. Right now, it’s half of what it was last year. He or Santander is the one I’d look to move. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

2 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Agreed. He’s had 2 years now to show he can be selective at the plate but there’s no improvement. As a matter of fact, his BB rate has gone down every year so far. Right now, it’s half of what it was last year. He or Santander is the one I’d look to move. 

Mountcastle did show improvement the second half of 2021 at drawing walks. He went from drawing a walk in 6.6% of his at bats pre-all star break to 9.0% post-all star break. 

This season Mountcastle is down to a 3.6% walk rate. I think we'll see Mountcastle have streaks where he's more selective, but he's going to remain a player who swings at everything. 

[Sports Guy]

I like Mountcastle and I’m glad he’s here.  He’s a cheap, valuable player until that 5th or 6th year.

That said, he’s overrated by a lot of Os fans and trading him wouldn’t be a bad thing.

[NCRaven]

With Mancini departing after this season, I wouldn’t trade Mountcastle now.

[Chaka Garcia]

I look at Mountcastle as the guy who replaces Mancini’s spot as the token 1b/dh type who has limited defense that will degrade over time. Salary is low, so you overlook the warts and put additional value on the homeruns. 

With that said, trade the older asset Mancini for lottery tickets.

Edited May 21, 2022 by Chaka Garcia

[Sports Guy]

17 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

With Mancini departing after this season, I wouldn’t trade Mountcastle now.

You certainly don’t need to trade him…but you don’t need to keep him either. It would depend on what his value is and what he can bring back.  But 2-3 years from now?  Yea you will need to trade him then unless he has greatly improved his game.

[spiritof66]

3 hours ago, waroriole said:

The logjam problem at OF/1B/DH has arrived. There has to be a trade soon, especially with Stowers at Norfolk. Assuming everyone is healthy tomorrow, one of these 6 will be sitting. Which one is traded? My guess is Santander 

Mullins

Hats

Santander

Mancini

Mountcastle

Rutschman 

So far as I can tell, Elias has never made a trade at a level approaching the one that looks like it's coming, or should be coming. And for different reasons, trading any of these guys could turn out badly. (I'm assuming "Hats" is Hays, not a reference to the proverbial trade for a bag of baseballs. )

I predict Elias won't pull the trigger on any of these guys until just before the trade deadline in the hope a contender (a real contender, that is) and probably until after the season, in the hope Santander or Mancini builds up his value and becomes the guy to go. Until there's an injury, the PAs will be spread around and Hyde will have the luxury of a pinch hitter OPSing over .600.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

I disagree on Mountcastle.   He's going to have good streaks but he's always going to be a guy who expands the zone.   I don't see him being much more than what we've seen the last two years.

I’ll wait and see.   It could go either way.  Adam Jones always stayed a free swinger but he did up his game a couple of notches after his first few seasons.  

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I’ll wait and see.   It could go either way.  Adam Jones always stayed a free swinger but he did up his game a couple of notches after his first few seasons.  

Adam Jones had a .792 OPS his second season and only surpassed that twice (.811 and .839) the rest of his career.