Mullins and Mountcastle need to step up

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, webbrick2010 said:

Ryan Mountcastle:

Strike 1 : No defensive value

Strike 2 : Lousy OBP driven by extremely low BB rate

Strike 3? : RH power hitter in Camden Yards

This is a guy who will likely bounce around from team to team for maybe a 10 year career, without distinction.

 

So far in 2022 he's in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity, he's 85th percentile in max exit velocity, he's 85th percentile in HardHit%, 86th in xwOBA, 96th in xBA, 91st in xSLG and 87th in Barrel%. Looks like someone who's squaring up the ball about as well as anyone in baseball, the results haven't lined up yet but very likely will.

If he wasn't terribly disappointing you and was instead on another team I'd guess he's the kind of player you'd be complaining that Elias hadn't acquired for the Orioles.

[deward]

1 hour ago, webbrick2010 said:

Ryan Mountcastle:

Strike 1 : No defensive value

Strike 2 : Lousy OBP driven by extremely low BB rate

Strike 3? : RH power hitter in Camden Yards

This is a guy who will likely bounce around from team to team for maybe a 10 year career, without distinction.

 

1 - I wouldn't say he has NO defensive value. I'm no scout, but he looks like he's capable of playing a decent-to-good 1b. He's not good in LF, but you can throw him out there in a pinch in some parks, and he could still play an emergency 3b for a few innings if called on. When I think of no defensive value, I think of someone like David Ortiz, who had no business owning a glove.

2 and 3 are definitely issues

I could see him settling in for a few years run as a no worse than league average 1b, but I don't see it being here, not in New Camden.

[BohKnowsBmore]

46 minutes ago, PHRESH said:

Mullins should have 8 hrs and 8 sb by now. 

Well, 9 sb on the season, so he's ahead there.

[PHRESH]

1 hour ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Well, 9 sb on the season, so he's ahead there.

I'm not too worried about him. I think there's a good chance he's putting too much pressure on himself after killing it last year. I believe he'll eventually start grooving again.

[DrungoHazewood]

3 hours ago, deward said:

I could see him settling in for a few years run as a no worse than league average 1b, but I don't see it being here, not in New Camden.

If the Orioles are smart they'll realize that an average hitter in today's Camden Yards will have different raw production than a player at another park and account for that.  Many, many many stars played in pitcher's parks and won a lot of games.  Joe DiMaggio didn't suddenly become a mediocre player because it was 460' to LC at Yankee Stadium.

[PHRESH]

6 hours ago, webbrick2010 said:

Ryan Mountcastle:

Strike 1 : No defensive value

Strike 2 : Lousy OBP driven by extremely low BB rate

Strike 3? : RH power hitter in Camden Yards

This is a guy who will likely bounce around from team to team for maybe a 10 year career, without distinction.

 

How can a guy named Ryan Pickcastle have no defensive value 

[Moose Milligan]

4 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

If he really swings at everything then why do major league pitchers ever throw him a pitch that's hittable?  I think he doesn't swing at everything, just more than some other MLB hitters. Do players with poor plate discipline really have more hot/cold streaks than others? It's repeated all the time, but I've never seen any data showing that.

Adam Jones was like Mountcastle.  He didn't walk. Today I could throw him a slider 6" off the plate and he'd swing at it. But he had a 10-year period where he basically hit .265-.285 with 25 homers every single year. Did he do that while being super streaky?

But if he didn't swing at that slider 6 inches off the plate all the time, do you think his on base percentage would be higher than .317?

That's right, they don't walk.  But I'd rather Jones and Mountcastle be more selective and walk a little more and not make the outs.  Captain Obvious statement of the day right there.

The way Mountcastle is going right now, it's a good question though.  Why would anyone throw him a decent pitch in the strike zone?  They might not have more hot/cold streaks than others but at least if they walked more, they wouldn't be making the outs.  

[deward]

4 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

If the Orioles are smart they'll realize that an average hitter in today's Camden Yards will have different raw production than a player at another park and account for that.  Many, many many stars played in pitcher's parks and won a lot of games.  Joe DiMaggio didn't suddenly become a mediocre player because it was 460' to LC at Yankee Stadium.

Mountcastle, of course, isn't exactly Joe DiMaggio, or even necessarily a star. He's going to need to prove that he can adjust his approach to offset the 5-7 potential home runs that are going to die on the new warning track.

[interloper]

Sigh.

[InsideCoroner]

I'm not all that concerned if Mullins and/or Mountcastle have an off year in 2022. It's next year that I really want them to come through when the games will hopefully matter. 

[Frobby]

I’m going to be honest, I’m not a big Mountcastle fan.  He just swings at too many pitches out of the zone for my taste.   His O% is at a career high 44.5%. He gives away too many at bats.   He’s at the point in his career where he should be improving in that area, and it’s very concerning to me that he’s not.   I’m sure he’ll have a couple of hot streaks and people will fall back in love with him when he does, but a guy with his approach isn’t going to hit well consistently.

[foxfield]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I’m going to be honest, I’m not a big Mountcastle fan.  He just swings at too many pitches out of the zone for my taste.   His O% is at a career high 44.5%. He gives away too many at bats.   He’s at the point in his career where he should be improving in that area, and it’s very concerning to me that he’s not.   I’m sure he’ll have a couple of hot streaks and people will fall back in love with him when he does, but a guy with his approach isn’t going to hit well consistently.

This is what drove Buck mad during one of Ryans first spring training shots.  It hasn't really changed.  I don't know at this point if it can.

[Pushmonkey]

15 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m going to be honest, I’m not a big Mountcastle fan.  He just swings at too many pitches out of the zone for my taste.   His O% is at a career high 44.5%. He gives away too many at bats.   He’s at the point in his career where he should be improving in that area, and it’s very concerning to me that he’s not.   I’m sure he’ll have a couple of hot streaks and people will fall back in love with him when he does, but a guy with his approach isn’t going to hit well consistently.

There are some at bats where I think. Why didn’t he swing at the pitch down the middle then case a pitch with no probability of a hit or hard contact. 

[luismatos4prez]

Mountcastle reminds me so much of Adam Jones at the plate. Great contact and 30 HR power, but just can't lay off that low and away slider. In AJ's slumps, it felt like everyone in the stadium but him knew a slider in the dirt was coming with 2 strikes.

I think Mounty's career hitting trajectory will go similarly to Jones, a number of seasons with a wRC+ in the 110-120 range. But he's a lot less valuable without the defense or leadership that Jones brought. He's a good player, but not a piece to build around. 

[Frobby]

24 minutes ago, luismatos4prez said:

Mountcastle reminds me so much of Adam Jones at the plate. Great contact and 30 HR power, but just can't lay off that low and away slider. In AJ's slumps, it felt like everyone in the stadium but him knew a slider in the dirt was coming with 2 strikes.

I think Mounty's career hitting trajectory will go similarly to Jones, a number of seasons with a wRC+ in the 110-120 range. But he's a lot less valuable without the defense or leadership that Jones brought. He's a good player, but not a piece to build around. 

Pretty dead on.  Jones had a 32.6 rWAR career.   I think Mountcastle is looking at 10-15 max.   Not that there’s anything wrong with that.