Kyle Bradish's ineffective fastball

[Tony-OH]

I made this post in the Kyle Bradish thread but thought it's worthy of it's own thread for now. I may move this back into the Bradish thread at some point but wanted to get it out.

I'm starting to have concerns with his fastball.

Against 401 fastballs, batters have done this:

              BA       XBA    SLG     XSLG   wOBA  xWOBA  WHIFF
2022     .368    .341    .621    .637       .455     .439       16.9%
RHB      .500     .423    .935    .869    .616       .548       12.5 %
LHB      .220     .250    .268     .376    .265      .311        22.5%    

Those fastball numbers against righthanders are scary bad. 

So I looked at his fastball a little closer and the numbers surprised me. For a guy with a very overhand delivery, he doesn't get great spin rate and his vertical movement (13.9 inch) is actually below average for a 94.9 MPH fastball. That means his vertical movement does not make up for the fact that his fastball is almost dead straight (1 inch of horizonal movement) which comes out to -7.2 inches less than an average MLB fastball at that velocity making it -116% break from average.

Let me summarize that for some that don't really get all of that. His fastball is very straight and doesn't have enough velocity or lack of drop to overcome the straightness. Basically his fastball needs to be located very well for success and explains why they are hitting it so hard in the zone.

This does not bode well for his long-term success at the major league level an ANY role without an adjustment to his fastball or a sudden ability to locate really well.

[SteveA]

I was looking at his vsLH/vsRH splits last night.

At both AAA and MLB this year, he has been hammered by righties and done well vs lefties.   Which matches perfectly with the fastball data above.

But in 2019 and 2021 in the minors, his OPSvsLH and OPSvsRH were extremely balanced both years.   The phenomenon of righties killing him, while consistent through both Norfolk and Baltimore this season, seems to only exist this season.

Any idea what might have changed?

[wildcard]

He is averaging 95 mph with his fastball.  So he has the arm strength.   Sounds like Holt needs to help him get more movement on the fastball.    That may not be an easy change but one he needs to develop.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, SteveA said:

I was looking at his vsLH/vsRH splits last night.

At both AAA and MLB this year, he has been hammered by righties and done well vs lefties.   Which matches perfectly with the fastball data above.

But in 2019 and 2021 in the minors, his OPSvsLH and OPSvsRH were extremely balanced both years.   The phenomenon of righties killing him, while consistent through both Norfolk and Baltimore this season, seems to only exist this season.

Any idea what might have changed?

Well he started going more slider heavy in AAA and now his slider has become his best offspeed pitch and most used. When you look at the contour data for his fastball, he's in the middle of the plate way too much against right-handers. Still, the lack of movement and the surprisingly the slightly below average vertical movement is a bit scary.

[higgybaby]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

i made this post in the Kyle Bradish thread but thought it's worthy of it's own thread for now. I may move this back into the Bradish thread at some point but wanted to get it out.

I'm starting to have concerns with his fastball.

Against 401 fastballs, batters have done this:

              BA       XBA    SLG     XSLG   wOBA  xWOBA  WHIFF
2022     .368    .341    .621    .637       .455     .439       16.9%
RHB      .500     .423    .935    .869    .616       .548       12.5 %
LHB      .220     .250    .268     .376    .265      .311        22.5%    

Those fastball numbers against righthanders are scary bad. 

So I looked at his fastball a little closer and the numbers surprised me. For a guy with a very overhand delivery, he doesn't get great spin rate and his vertical movement (13.9 inch) is actually below average for a 94.9 MPH fastball. That means his vertical movement does not make up for the fact that his fastball is almost dead straight (1 inch of horizonal movement) which comes out to -7.2 inches less than an average MLB fastball at that velocity making it -116% break from average.

Let me summarize that for some that don't really get all of that. His fastball is very straight and doesn't have enough velocity or lack of drop to overcome the straightness. Basically his fastball needs to be located very well for success and explains why they are hitting it so hard in the zone.

This does not bode well for his long-term success at the major league level an ANY role without an adjustment to his fastball or a sudden ability to locate really well.

I was telling my wife how straight his fastball looked when we were laying in bed watching the game and she was reading her book. 
I could tell she was very interested in what I was saying. Lol

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

He is averaging 95 mph with his fastball.  So he has the arm strength.   Sounds like Holt needs to help him get more movement on the fastball.    That may not be an easy change but one he needs to develop.

If it is something he's capable of doing it why hasn't he already done it?

 

[Hank Scorpio]

Looks pretty straight to me.

When he first came up it appeared to have some serious cut to it, but it looks like it's straightened out a bit. 

[Tony-OH]

24 minutes ago, higgybaby said:

I was telling my wife how straight his fastball looked when we were laying in bed watching the game and she was reading her book. 
I could tell she was very interested in what I was saying. Lol

You should introduce her to my wife who has the same interest level in baseball! lol

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

28 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If it is something he's capable of doing it why hasn't he already done it?

 

 

[Hazmat]

I caught a few innings last night.  I remember wondering what Jim Palmer might have said when Bradish faced Springer, threw him a slider and Springer hit it on a rope into the 3B side stands.  The next pitch?  Another slider that Springer proceeded to line down the 3B line into the corner for a double.  I wondered to myself why he didn't come back with the fastball instead of making the same pitch that Springer was all over.  I believe Tony just answered my question.

[Just Regular]

Different body types, but reading this I started thinking of Tommy Hunter.

[ChuckS]

The fastball would play better if he could get his secondaries over.

96 and straight isn’t hard to hit when they are looking for it. 

[Tony-OH]

Here's a blind test. Here are four pitchers' fastballs. Which fastball would you want:

                   Vel      Vmove   vmove vs avg   Hmov       hmov vs avg

Pitcher A:  94.9     13.9 in          -0.6 in          1.0 in           -7.2 in
Pitcher B:  94.9     12.9 in            0.3 in          1.5 in           -4.5 in
Pitcher C : 92.1      15.8 in           -0.8in          0.9 in           -5.2 in
Pitcher D : 95.7      12.6 in          -0.3 in          7.9 in           -1.1 in  

Pitcher B has the best Vertical Movement vs avg
Pitcher D has the most velocity and horizontal movement.

Pitcher A: Kyle Bradish
Pitcher B: Bryan Baker (who some want to DFA)
Pitcher C : Spenser Watkins
Pitcher D : Tommy Hunter his last year with the Orioles as a reliever

Basically Bryan Baker has a better fastball for movement than Bradish and people are talking about him being DFA'd and Bradish as a long term starter here. Now would Bradish's stuff play up in 1-2 inning stints? Possibly. 

Only Bradish, Watkins and Travis Lakins are the only Orioles pitchers with below average movement on both vertical and horizontal movement on their fastballs among pitchers with 50 of more pitches this year. 


 

[interloper]

He's gonna be fine. Gonna take awhile though. 

[Tony-OH]

There are only nine pitchers in MLB who have thrown 50 or more pitches this season that have straighter fastballs than Bradish.

Of them, only three are right-handed starters and the most any of them use the pitch is 38.7 % (Spenser Watkins). Bradish throws his fastball 53.3% which is a lot for a guy with a bad fastball.