Who do you want? Who do we take?

[seak05]

The other concern on Jones is he fills out, loses speed, and has to move to LF, which is no longer a premium defensive position. Holliday if he fills out and has to move, shifts to 3b, which is still a premium def position (and part of why I might go for Holiday) 

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Perfect example of what I was talking about.  You just have to do it and you cry about me being civil?  

You, sir, are a crybaby.

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, seak05 said:

The other concern on Jones is he fills out, loses speed, and has to move to LF, which is no longer a premium defensive position. Holliday if he fills out and has to move, shifts to 3b, which is still a premium def position (and part of why I might go for Holiday) 

If Jones has great instincts in the outfield I think even average speed will play in CF.

[RZNJ]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

That’s the question with everyone until they do it.

You don't acknowlege that the consensus is that it's a bigger question if Jones will hit compared to Johnson, Lee, Berry, and Collier?

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, seak05 said:

This is pretty much where I am, although I would have Collier on this list, and probably take off Green. The only one who has a higher defensive ceiling (based on position) is Holliday. Lee/Jones/Temarr/Collier all are projected to be at positions that have similar defensive value. I worry about Temarr's physique, and like that Collier has hit against higher level pitching at a younger age. Lee is probably the safest pick to be a major league starter. Jones/Holliday/Collier are the most likely to become stars (although it's highly unlikely). 

What I'm not sure I get is all the people who think we should take Jones, but dismiss Lee/Temarr because they're going to be 2b or 3b. Those positions are equally valuable defensively as cf. Honestly, I just think to many people are getting swept up in the draft boards Jones hype. And have decided he is sliced bread. I'd be happy if the Orioles picked him, but I don't think he's a slam dunk 

Not so sure about that defensive ceiling at SS?

 

Scouting report: I’m not sure anyone has helped himself more than Holliday has this spring, notably during his team’s spring break trip to Arizona in March, where Holliday showed incredibly well in front of a lot of decision-makers in town for spring training. He has one of the best swings in the draft, even with a slight bat wrap, with strong plate coverage and above-average power, more likely to be a high-doubles guy with 15-20 homers than a 30-homer guy even at his peak. He’s been hard to strike out as an amateur, only showing occasional weakness against fastballs up, and so far his pitch recognition has been strong for his age and experience level. He’s improved his defensive skills at shortstop, although there’s also been talk of him moving to centerfield to take advantage of his speed if he can’t stay at short, rather than moving him to second or third. It also hasn’t hurt that his father, Matt, was a longtime big-leaguer and seven-time All-Star, and that scouts have been just as impressed by Jackson’s younger brother, Ethan, who may become a top-5 pick in the 2023 draft. Jackson’s heading for the same range this year.

[seak05]

6 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

If Jones has great instincts in the outfield I think even average speed will play in CF.

That would be the hope, but that's unknown. Even then, he would go from plus in CF to playable, at which point you're putting more pressure on the bat. Maybe he becomes a GG CF, but what I'm trying to say is that's the ceiling, and not the floor. The floor is LF.

[Sports Guy]

Law doesn’t love the hit tool of Johnson as much as some. (Fwiw)

Scouting report: Johnson has the best pure hit tool in the draft class, with scouts saying it’s the best hit tool they’ve seen on a high school kid in a decade or more. Despite a small hitch in his swing, he does hit all pitch types and controls the zone, with outstanding hand-eye coordination and great bat speed, making good quality contact but with only average power. He’s a shortstop now but will move to second base in pro ball, with good hands but not the footwork to handle short. I think the present hit tool is a 60, at best, rather than a 70, although perhaps it will get there in time, but he’s swung and missed enough against good competition that the higher grade doesn’t apply just yet. He has exceptional makeup in every evaluation, from his feel for the game to the way he acts as an additional coach on the field to the interviews he’s had with scouts and team executives, so there’s greater confidence that he’ll reach his ceiling than there is for just about any high school player. That ceiling is tied to just how good his hit tool can become.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

You don't acknowlege that the consensus is that it's a bigger question if Jones will hit compared to Johnson, Lee, Berry, and Collier?

Yes but like I said before, I wonder how real it is or if people are nitpicking to find things wrong.  It’s just something that tends to happen in this process but sure, there is evidence that those guys have better bats today.

[seak05]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Not so sure about that defensive ceiling at SS?

 

Scouting report: I’m not sure anyone has helped himself more than Holliday has this spring, notably during his team’s spring break trip to Arizona in March, where Holliday showed incredibly well in front of a lot of decision-makers in town for spring training. He has one of the best swings in the draft, even with a slight bat wrap, with strong plate coverage and above-average power, more likely to be a high-doubles guy with 15-20 homers than a 30-homer guy even at his peak. He’s been hard to strike out as an amateur, only showing occasional weakness against fastballs up, and so far his pitch recognition has been strong for his age and experience level. He’s improved his defensive skills at shortstop, although there’s also been talk of him moving to centerfield to take advantage of his speed if he can’t stay at short, rather than moving him to second or third. It also hasn’t hurt that his father, Matt, was a longtime big-leaguer and seven-time All-Star, and that scouts have been just as impressed by Jackson’s younger brother, Ethan, who may become a top-5 pick in the 2023 draft. Jackson’s heading for the same range this year.

Holiday has a SS ceiling (note the if he can't stay at SS), but his floor is 2b/3b or I guess CF, all of which are valuable def positions. Jones' def floor is LF, which is much lower down on the def rating scale. So fundamentally Holiday's def ceiling is much higher then Jones' and his floor is Jones' ceiling

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, seak05 said:

The other concern on Jones is he fills out, loses speed, and has to move to LF, which is no longer a premium defensive position. Holliday if he fills out and has to move, shifts to 3b, which is still a premium def position (and part of why I might go for Holiday) 

I mean, his dad filled out and was still a stud CF.   So I’m not too worried that Druw will need to move.   

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

You, sir, are a crybaby.

You are the one bringing it up.  If you want to bring up being civil, don’t be a little bitch about it when I throw it back in your face.  
 

Either abide by what you are preaching or stop crying about it.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, seak05 said:

Holiday has a SS ceiling (note the if he can't stay at SS), but his floor is 2b/3b or I guess CF, all of which are valuable def positions. Jones' def floor is LF, which is much lower down on the def rating scale. So fundamentally Holiday's def ceiling is much higher then Jones' and his floor is Jones' ceiling

Ehh, some think Jones can be a SS and zero people see him not in CF.  So, I think you are wrong there.  No one is talking about him moving to LF.  At this point, it seems like you are just making stuff up to justify not taking him, which is exactly what I think happens during the draft processes, especially as they get drawn out like this one is.

I will take the CFer over any position outside of SS…although I do agree that third is very close behind.

[seak05]

By the way here are the current def positional adjustments from bref

+9 runs

SS: +7 runs

2B: +3 runs

CF: +2.5 runs

3B: +2 runs

RF: -7 runs

LF: -7 runs

1B: -9.5 runs

DH: -15 runs

and from fangraphs

Catcher: +12.5 runs (all are per 162 defensive games)
First Base: -12.5 runs
Second Base: +2.5 runs
Third Base: +2.5 runs
Shortstop: +7.5 runs
Left Field: -7.5 runs
Center Field: +2.5 runs
Right Field: -7.5 runs
Designated Hitter: -17.5 runs

Basically C is most valuable, then SS, CF/3B/2B are roughly equal, and then RF/LF and 1b are negative, with DH being even more negative still 

[Sports Guy]

C being #1 is cringeworthy.

 

[seak05]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Ehh, some think Jones can be a SS and zero people see him not in CF.  So, I think you are wrong there.  No one is talking about him moving to LF.  At this point, it seems like you are just making stuff up to justify not taking him, which is exactly what I think happens during the draft processes, especially as they get drawn out like this one is.

I will take the CFer over any position outside of SS…although I do agree that third is very close behind.

I don't think he'll have to move to LF, at least not when he's young, but it's not a non-zero chance...and the drop off from CF to LF from a def value perspective is massive, and much larger then the drop off in value from having to shift from SS to 3b. 

As an aside, his dad was no longer an good CF by 30, but he was elite in his early 20's