20-15 since May 19th

[Tony-OH]

The Orioles are 20-15 since May 19, which is their best 35-game stretch in five years.

Who has been leading the way?

Mountcastle: .274/.315/.533/.848
Mancini: .277/.377/.454/.831    
Hays: .273/.318/.496/.814
Santander: .261/.328/.470/.798
T. Wells: 4-1, 2.70 (.182/.250/.318/.568)
Kremer: 2-1, 1.71 (.263/.314/.338/.652)

Almost entire bullpen
Lopez: 0.50 in 18IP over 15 games
Bautista: 0.00 in 14IP over 15 games
Tate: 1.56 in 17.1 IP over 15 games
Perez: 1.46 in 12.1 IP over 15 games
Akin: 3.32 over 21.1 IP in 9 games
Krehbeil: 0.90 in 10 IP in 8 games
Vespi: 0.79 in in 11.1 IP over 9 games

Since June 11th
Rutschman: .319/.373/.638/1.011    
 

[Sports Guy]

Yea this has been driven by the pen in a lot of ways.

Im not sure what is and isn’t sustainable and I think Elias will still trade some guys but it’s certainly getting better.

Im hoping that by the trade deadline, Gunnar, Westburg, Stowers and Hall will be in Baltimore. I’m really interested to see what those guys bring.

One thing I would like to know is what is the Adley effect.  These guys have been hearing about Adley for a while now.  They know what he is, what his potential is, etc..does bringing up a guy like that rejuvenate the vets?  Does it give them that little bit extra?

Baseball is a game we love to whittle down to numbers.  We all do it and in a lot of ways, it’s useful and should be done. 

However, there are certainly things that you can’t measure and things that have value.  How much value is up for debate but there is value nonetheless.

[Surhoffan17]

My only issue is (I almost wish I never came across Baseball Savant) that many of our relievers have higher expected ERAs than actual ERAs.  I don't know how accurate the site is.  But it makes me wonder what's sustainable?  Still, great signs going forward with Mountcastle, Rutschman, and Hays.  

One other thought: we think we're close but then two cogs in the offense will be gone soon - Mancini and Santander.  How are we going to play after the trade deadline once they're gone?  More importantly, next year?  The starting pitching should improve but that's no guarantee.

 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea this has been driven by the pen in a lot of ways.

Im not sure what is and isn’t sustainable and I think Elias will still trade some guys but it’s certainly getting better.

Im hoping that by the trade deadline, Gunnar, Westburg, Stowers and Hall will be in Baltimore. I’m really interested to see what those guys bring.

One thing I would like to know is what is the Adley effect.  These guys have been hearing about Adley for a while now.  They know what he is, what his potential is, etc..does bringing up a guy like that rejuvenate the vets?  Does it give them that little bit extra?

Baseball is a game we love to whittle down to numbers.  We all do it and in a lot of ways, it’s useful and should be done. 

However, there are certainly things that you can’t measure and things that have value.  How much value is up for debate but there is value nonetheless.

Well the team is 15-13 in gams he's started. They're 6-1 when he starts at DH, which is of course a SSS but just thought I'd note it.

The pen he has been pretty amazing so far. Gotta give Elias credit for rebuilding his pen with several DFA guys who have done well (Perez and Krehbeil) along with converting Lopez and Akin to relief, and giving in house guys like Tate and Bautista high leverage roles and giving Vespi a chance when he hadn't pitched effectively above AA until this year.

I think this team's lineup will be much better when Westburg and Henderson arrive and even potentially Vavra and Stowers. 

The starting pitching is really the issue overall. There's no one really knocking on the door (Rodriguez is hurt and Hall is not ready yet). 

 

[sportsfan8703]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea this has been driven by the pen in a lot of ways.

Im not sure what is and isn’t sustainable and I think Elias will still trade some guys but it’s certainly getting better.

Im hoping that by the trade deadline, Gunnar, Westburg, Stowers and Hall will be in Baltimore. I’m really interested to see what those guys bring.

One thing I would like to know is what is the Adley effect.  These guys have been hearing about Adley for a while now.  They know what he is, what his potential is, etc..does bringing up a guy like that rejuvenate the vets?  Does it give them that little bit extra?

Baseball is a game we love to whittle down to numbers.  We all do it and in a lot of ways, it’s useful and should be done. 

However, there are certainly things that you can’t measure and things that have value.  How much value is up for debate but there is value nonetheless.

The Adley effect appears to have some validity. Obviously I’d like to add Gunnar and Westburg to plug our weaknesses, but I don’t think that will happen anytime soon. Hall would be nice as a 3 IP spot starter that we could send up/down. 
 

Elias could work the waiver wire for upgrades at 3B and fresh relievers. Matt Harvey will be an option soon. 
 

It would be interesting if we could get back to .500 and see if Elias calls up Westburg and/or Gunnar. 
 

We could make a run this year without mortgaging any future pieces/plans. 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Surhoffan17 said:

My only issue is (I almost wish I never came across Baseball Savant) that many of our relievers have higher expected ERAs than actual ERAs.  I don't know how accurate the site is.  But it makes me wonder what's sustainable?  Still, great signs going forward with Mountcastle, Rutschman, and Hays.  

One other thought: we think we're close but then two cogs in the offense will be gone soon - Mancini and Santander.  How are we going to play after the trade deadline once they're gone?  More importantly, next year?  The starting pitching should improve but that's no guarantee.

 

I don't think Elias is going to give Mancini and Santander away just to free up playing time and I'd imagine he's going to try and trade them for pitching. Mancini is one of the few guys on this current lineup that has a good OBP and he should have value to a contender. Santander probably doesn't have a ton of trade value.

It would be nice if Stowers got hot again in AAA. He would be the most likely replacement in the lineup for either one.

 

 

[Moose Milligan]

Remains to be seen if this is legit or if this is just a hot streak.  Regardless, I'm enjoying watching them play lately.  Starting pitching is leaving a lot to be desired but the bullpen is duck p**** tight and the offense is doing pretty well.   

[sportsfan8703]

3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I don't think Elias is going to give Mancini and Santander away just to free up playing time and I'd imagine he's going to try and trade them for pitching. Mancini is one of the few guys on this current lineup that has a good OBP and he should have value to a contender. Santander probably doesn't have a ton of trade value.

It would be nice if Stowers got hot again in AAA. He would be the most likely replacement in the lineup for either one.

 

 

We don’t have to trade Santander. Mancini is a FA. Depending what the club does over the next month we’d have to weigh if Mancini is more valuable down the stretch to us versus what trades are out there for him. 
 

We’re just going have to see where we’re at in a month. If we continue to play well, and get closer to a WC spot, then I would lean to keeping Mancini If we call up Gunnar and Westburg. If anything to maximize their service year. 

[Surhoffan17]

25 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

We don’t have to trade Santander. Mancini is a FA. Depending what the club does over the next month we’d have to weigh if Mancini is more valuable down the stretch to us versus what trades are out there for him. 
 

We’re just going have to see where we’re at in a month. If we continue to play well, and get closer to a WC spot, then I would lean to keeping Mancini If we call up Gunnar and Westburg. If anything to maximize their service year. 

Agreed.  We don't have to trade Santander.  I guess it's a matter of possibly avoiding arbitration?  

[UMDTerrapins]

What I’ve begun to question is how much credit needs to be given to the coaching staff for the pitching success we’ve seen. I’m still taken aback when I look at box scores and see three relievers on any given day with sub 2:00 ERAs. And from a bullpen constructed with a lot of waiver wire pickups. And while I’ve had some skepticism about Hyde being the manager once we’re really competitive again, he has to get some credit here too. When was the last time it was late June and our bullpen wasn’t massively overworked? It’s always hard to gauge the amount of credit/blame to assign to coaches, but things are going better than expected for a number of players, so they have to get their due. 

[Moose Milligan]

1 hour ago, UMDTerrapins said:

What I’ve begun to question is how much credit needs to be given to the coaching staff for the pitching success we’ve seen. I’m still taken aback when I look at box scores and see three relievers on any given day with sub 2:00 ERAs. And from a bullpen constructed with a lot of waiver wire pickups. And while I’ve had some skepticism about Hyde being the manager once we’re really competitive again, he has to get some credit here too. When was the last time it was late June and our bullpen wasn’t massively overworked? It’s always hard to gauge the amount of credit/blame to assign to coaches, but things are going better than expected for a number of players, so they have to get their due. 

Holt is a wizard.  

 

 

[Moose Milligan]

1 hour ago, UMDTerrapins said:

What I’ve begun to question is how much credit needs to be given to the coaching staff for the pitching success we’ve seen. I’m still taken aback when I look at box scores and see three relievers on any given day with sub 2:00 ERAs. And from a bullpen constructed with a lot of waiver wire pickups. And while I’ve had some skepticism about Hyde being the manager once we’re really competitive again, he has to get some credit here too. When was the last time it was late June and our bullpen wasn’t massively overworked? It’s always hard to gauge the amount of credit/blame to assign to coaches, but things are going better than expected for a number of players, so they have to get their due. 

Jokes aside, IMO, how long this can last is going to be a measure of how well this bullpen can hold up.

You're right, by now it's usually taxed and worn out.  I'm too lazy to check the numbers but I do believe our starters, while not spectacular, have been giving us slightly more and better innings this year than they have in the previous year or two.

The coaching staff deserves some of the credit, but Elias does, too.  Betting on a guy like Cionel Perez and trying to determine if he'd be receptive to the coaching is a lot of work.  It's a team effort for sure and, IMO, not any one specific party should get the majority of the credit.  

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, UMDTerrapins said:

What I’ve begun to question is how much credit needs to be given to the coaching staff for the pitching success we’ve seen. I’m still taken aback when I look at box scores and see three relievers on any given day with sub 2:00 ERAs. And from a bullpen constructed with a lot of waiver wire pickups. And while I’ve had some skepticism about Hyde being the manager once we’re really competitive again, he has to get some credit here too. When was the last time it was late June and our bullpen wasn’t massively overworked? It’s always hard to gauge the amount of credit/blame to assign to coaches, but things are going better than expected for a number of players, so they have to get their due. 

What’s funny is that this BP isn’t doing it in the current traditional way..IE the K rate is low.  I worry about the sustainability because of that but they are excelling in other ways.

The Os are 8th in MLB in BB rate, 5th in HR rate, 2nd in GB rate, 6th in FIP and 2nd in WAR.  They are also third in IP.  

They are first in WPA.

Even things like BABiP and HR/FB% show them to be a little lucky but not overly so.

I think it comes down to individual guys and what regression we see but the pen as a whole should stay pretty good.  Maybe not at this level but still dependable.

[OriolesMagic83]

55 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Holt is a wizard.  

 

 

I wish he could wizard more with our starting pitchers.

[OriolesMagic83]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

We don’t have to trade Santander. Mancini is a FA. Depending what the club does over the next month we’d have to weigh if Mancini is more valuable down the stretch to us versus what trades are out there for him. 
 

We’re just going have to see where we’re at in a month. If we continue to play well, and get closer to a WC spot, then I would lean to keeping Mancini If we call up Gunnar and Westburg. If anything to maximize their service year. 

Before the O's can think about a wild card spot, they have to get over .500.  The O's are in a soft part of the schedule now.  I count 28 games before the trade deadline.  They would need to go something like 10 games over .500 to be in the middle of the wild card race.   That would be 19-9.  The O's haven't had a stretch like that since 2016 I would guess.  I am willing to be surprised.