Would you take Jones Jr at full slot (or close to it) or Termarr Johnson at $1.5M under slot?

[PHRESH]

On 7/5/2022 at 12:41 PM, Jammer7 said:

Look, the pipeline write ups are kinda fluffy, especially with certain top guys. Some of these write ups have things to read between the lines. 

You took a very small part of what I wrote, my opinion, and made it into a big nothing burger over a half grade. I have read it. I’m not going to look any further, this is a waste of my time. Call me out anytime, it’s what you and a few others enjoy. Carry on. 

I have my opinions based on what I have done and people I’ve learned from. I’m not a scout, no. I did coach with some. I’m nobody in particular, in fact. Just some guy who spent most of my free time coaching kids to young men, some to a higher level, for the past 16 years. I read/listen to what the national pundits say. Some are on point, IMO, and some are full of hyperbole.

The Johnson kid is deserving of being in the top 10, sure. A lofty hit tool does that, especially when the signing number isn’t particularly high. He’s got a great attitude, it seems, and he’s motivated to begin his pro career. He is being mocked to fall into the bottom of the top 10 as we get closer, though early mocks aren’t all that accurate or meaningful.

Other smallish MIF’s have had great 70 hit tools and recently got hyped into the top half of the first round or higher. Madrigal and Hiura were both top 10 picks, I believe. There was another that escapes me who was fairly high up and has not been worthy. That concerns me. Each individual is a separate case, sure. But the odds are the odds with his profile. We could argue all day about if these guys could have prospered in a different player development system or not. 

Johnson kinda reminds me of Dustin Ackley when he was about to be drafted. Great hit tool, but not really special other than that. I like the kid from interviews, but I hope he doesn't get drafted by Baltimore at 1:1.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Flash- bd said:

Yeah, I'm taking that into account when I praise the 19-20 drafts. Even for draft position, Rutschman, Henderson, Stowers, and Hernaiz is a really impressive haul from a draft, compare that to other 1:1 hauls and I don't think you'll find much better...to get 2 prospects the level of Rutschman and Gunnar in one draft is really extremely rare, and on top of that you have a hit on Stowers and, early to say still, but potentially Hernaiz. I'm not @DrungoHazewoodbut we could be talking like 99th percentile level success here. 

2020 looks similarly impressive, and the decision to go for Kjerstad looks quite shrewd given how the other options for that pick are looking, and given the players we got at above slot later. Kjerstad, Westburg, Mayo, and Baumler again is a really impressive haul, if not quite 2019 level, though probably a weaker draft class in comparison should be taken into consideration. Again, 3 top 10 prospects from a draft--with another who has potential to be top 10 at the end of this season--is impressive, no matter what your pick placement (1:2 and 1:30), and could be even more impressive if Kjerstad continues to hit at higher levels ( / if we hadn't had the bad luck with myocarditis and covid there). 

I think the question, more than the one you posed, is: did the team do a good job with the picks they had, compared to what can reasonably be expected with that pick haul? 

At this early stage the answer to that question has to range either from a resounding yes to a "FUCKING HELL WHAT AMAZING DRAFTS, what a daft question," depending on your personality. 

Either way, like I said, considering what resounding successes the first two drafts look liked--even while taking into consideration advantageous pick haul--I'm really rather surprised at the attitude toward Elias' drafting and lack of faith in his processes. 

This is like epic level jinxing of the franchise here. You've almost guaranteed that Henderson will celebrate his first callup by drinking 11 beers then going to a speed pitching range with Adley where they both blow out their UCLs.  Stowers will become best buds with Billy Rowell.  And Kjerstad signs up with some kind of mentoring program with Sidney Ponson and Matt Hobgood.

[Sports Guy]

3 hours ago, PHRESH said:

Johnson kinda reminds me of Dustin Ackley when he was about to be drafted. Great hit tool, but not really special other than that. I like the kid from interviews, but I hope he doesn't get drafted by Baltimore at 1:1.

Interesting name there.  Wonder how the 2 scouting reports compare?

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Interesting name there.  Wonder how the 2 scouting reports compare?

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2009/reports.jsp?content=ackley

[OriolesMagic83]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2009/reports.jsp?content=ackley

Well Ackley had plus speed and Johnson only has slightly above average speed.  Really been down on Johnson since he had trouble in Atlanta summer league.  You don't expect the "best bat in the draft" to struggle vs less than the best college pitchers.  Pretty sure that the Atlanta league is a big step down from the Cape Cod league.

[Can_of_corn]

12 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Well Ackley had plus speed and Johnson only has slightly above average speed.  Really been down on Johnson since he had trouble in Atlanta summer league.  You don't expect the "best bat in the draft" to struggle vs less than the best college pitchers.  Pretty sure that the Atlanta league is a big step down from the Cape Cod league.

I'm big in the TJ surgery is a red flag for position players guy myself.

It just seems to me that guys lose something.  I'd avoid it if possible.

[Can_of_corn]

2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

This is like epic level jinxing of the franchise here. You've almost guaranteed that Henderson will celebrate his first callup by drinking 11 beers then going to a speed pitching range with Adley where they both blow out their UCLs.  Stowers will become best buds with Billy Rowell.  And Kjerstad signs up with some kind of mentoring program with Sidney Ponson and Matt Hobgood.

I would have expected Willems there.

[Remember The Alomar]

Not to detract from this lovely thread, but my favorite part of returning to the OH after nearly a decade away is seeing the same hitters trading body blows after body blows. God I missed this place. 

[PHRESH]

4 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Well Ackley had plus speed and Johnson only has slightly above average speed.  Really been down on Johnson since he had trouble in Atlanta summer league.  You don't expect the "best bat in the draft" to struggle vs less than the best college pitchers.  Pretty sure that the Atlanta league is a big step down from the Cape Cod league.

Yeah, I'm out on Johnson at this point. He just doesn't seem to have the upside you'd want at #1. 

[Frobby]

9 hours ago, LTO's said:

Highly recommend this podcast ep to all interested in the draft. Very informative. They had a nice back and forth on Johnson vs Holliday. Also, seems like Jones has the highest upside but is anything but a sure thing. Those who fall in love with the top guy on mock drafts might disappointed come draft day. 

I’ll give it a listen.  Longenhagen is my favorite analyst because he explains his opinions in detail.   He won’t always be right, but he’s a hard-working guy who doesn’t just spout the consensus line.  And Law does a nice job on his podcast.   

[CharmCityHokie]

4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm big in the TJ surgery is a red flag for position players guy myself.

It just seems to me that guys lose something.  I'd avoid it if possible.

Matt Wieters certainly never seemed to be the same hitter after his (I'm leaving his catching out of it as that is unique to his position and somewhat expected to be effected). 

[OriolesMagic83]

41 minutes ago, PHRESH said:

Yeah, I'm out on Johnson at this point. He just doesn't seem to have the upside you'd want at #1. 

Seems to have a lot of downside too.  Like the guy who struggles in AAA and never becomes a regular is one of his likely outcomes, imo.  Yes, he could also become a regular and an All Star too. 

[bluedog]

On 6/30/2022 at 11:45 AM, DocJJ said:

Honest question.

 

For me, I'd take Johnson and use the $1.5 M on the competitive balance picks and 2nd rounder.

I have no idea if this is actually a possible scenario.  I have no idea who's salary demands are going to be what.   I just thought I'd pose the hypothetical question and see what people think....

I have seen reports from a lot of scouts I admire that they would grade Johnson as having an 80 hit tool (Tony Gwynn / Rod Carew territory). If that's true, he's a generational talent at the plate and I wouldn't be shocked at all for Elias to grab him, get what ends up being the best player in the draft and pocket the money. 

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, bluedog said:

I have seen reports from a lot of scouts I admire that they would grade Johnson as having an 80 hit tool (Tony Gwynn / Rod Carew territory). If that's true, he's a generational talent at the plate and I wouldn't be shocked at all for Elias to grab him, get what ends up being the best player in the draft and pocket the money. 

I don't know any scouts but I'm concerned about the disparity of those reports.  Keith Law thinks it's a 60 now and could be a 70.  Most of the sites seem to think it's a 70.   I have seen a few 80's put on his hit tool.   I keep going back to the Perfect Game Showcase game where Brock Porter blew him away and he looked weak against a LHP.   Then in this summer league he's in.  13 games.  .292 AVG.   0 home runs.  13 strikeouts in 49 AB's.   Those are nice numbers but I don't feel "80" bat.  Maybe it's confirmation bias but I'm with Keith Law, who admittedly still likes him enough to have him at #3 on his board.   I'm not feeling it.

[Sports Guy]

https://www.masnsports.com/blog/predicting-who-the-o-s-take-at-no-1-good-luck-with-that-one?fbclid=IwAR3or6WPGB7RzVW3WFsA-Snb1dYcvwNYR-aofuZOrV8kcKB2eA0fRbMAp1M&fs=e&s=cl