Would you take Jones Jr at full slot (or close to it) or Termarr Johnson at $1.5M under slot?

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

He went 0-for his last-7 with 1 k and 1 BB. Prior that he was slashing  .311/.415/.444/.859 against older college pitching.

You can't use such a small sample size as any indication of anything other than to applaud a guy who wants to keep playing baseball this summer.

14 strikeouts in 14 games against okay college pitchers.   No home runs for someone who's being touted as a power hitting 2B.   I did applaud him for playing in this league.     The bat has to be SPECIAL.   Again, maybe it is, but in his first test against advanced pitching he has not excelled.  When he goes to A ball eventually he'll be facing tougher competition than he's facing now.    I can see Druw Jones getting a lot stronger and getting a lot better.   Is Termarr going to get a lot stronger and bigger than he already is?    Maybe, but the attraction to Termarr is that he already is a great hitter.

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

19 hours ago, RZNJ said:

14 strikeouts in 14 games against okay college pitchers.   No home runs for someone who's being touted as a power hitting 2B.   I did applaud him for playing in this league.     The bat has to be SPECIAL.   Again, maybe it is, but in his first test against advanced pitching he has not excelled.  When he goes to A ball eventually he'll be facing tougher competition than he's facing now.    I can see Druw Jones getting a lot stronger and getting a lot better.   Is Termarr going to get a lot stronger and bigger than he already is?    Maybe, but the attraction to Termarr is that he already is a great hitter.

Johnson lol. If he’s the pick, we are in trouble. 

[AlbNYfan]

A number one pick, a HS second baseman??? Really, 2nd baseman.....IMO any HS'er, if he is decent fielder would be a SS, maybe 3rd. At 5' whatever.  If he's at 2nd in HS, his arm is not likely to play well at the ML level. So, you're drafting a DH IMO (hmmm Stewart, how did that work out). This is likely to be the last number 1 pick for the O's in the near future, unless they get lucky in new lottery. Pick a quality position...SS, OF...but not a 2nd baseman.

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, AlbNYfan said:

A number one pick, a HS second baseman??? Really, 2nd baseman.....IMO any HS'er, if he is decent fielder would be a SS, maybe 3rd. At 5' whatever.  If he's at 2nd in HS, his arm is not likely to play well at the ML level. So, you're drafting a DH IMO (hmmm Stewart, how did that work out). This is likely to be the last number 1 pick for the O's in the near future, unless they get lucky in new lottery. Pick a quality position...SS, OF...but not a 2nd baseman.

He is a SS in HS.    You should know that before you come out with all of the other stuff.

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, AlbNYfan said:

A number one pick, a HS second baseman??? Really, 2nd baseman.....IMO any HS'er, if he is decent fielder would be a SS, maybe 3rd. At 5' whatever.  If he's at 2nd in HS, his arm is not likely to play well at the ML level. So, you're drafting a DH IMO (hmmm Stewart, how did that work out). This is likely to be the last number 1 pick for the O's in the near future, unless they get lucky in new lottery. Pick a quality position...SS, OF...but not a 2nd baseman.

Was the Mountcastle pick OK because he was drafted a "Shortstop"?

It's funny how all the reports indicate he'll be just fine at Second and folks just ignore them.

Just like it's funny that folks get caught up over a couple of inches of height.

 

Me, I worry that his summer league play has exposed his bat as not really being 70-80 quality.

[Frobby]

54 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Was the Mountcastle pick OK because he was drafted a "Shortstop"?

It's funny how all the reports indicate he'll be just fine at Second and folks just ignore them.

Just like it's funny that folks get caught up over a couple of inches of height.

 

Me, I worry that his summer league play has exposed his bat as not really being 70-80 quality.

Yeah, I think the issue is how you evaluate his bat.   Every time I see someone discounting Johnson because of his height I think back to the beginning chapters of Moneyball.   And when I hear about 2B, I think of all the great 2B that any team would have loved to have chosen at 1:1.   But at the end of the day, Johnson only makes sense if you think he has the best bat in the draft by a clear margin.  

[Sports Guy]

24 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Yeah, I think the issue is how you evaluate his bat.   Every time I see someone discounting Johnson because of his height I think back to the beginning chapters of Moneyball.   And when I hear about 2B, I think of all the great 2B that any team would have loved to have chosen at 1:1.   But at the end of the day, Johnson only makes sense if you think he has the best bat in the draft by a clear margin.  

A lot of great second baseman in the history of the sport.  Game changing level talents.

And yet a second baseman has never been drafted first.  Why?

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

A lot of great second baseman in the history of the sport.  Game changing level talents.

And yet a second baseman has never been drafted first.  Why?

Ignorance and bias.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Ignorance and bias.

Biases/stereotypes exist because there is truth behind them.

[RZNJ]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Biases/stereotypes exist because there is truth behind them.

Oh boy!!!!!

[Frobby]

48 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Biases/stereotypes exist because there is truth behind them.

I’ll leave aside whether this statement is sometimes true.  In this case, I’d say it isn’t.  There are 100 position players in the Hall of Fame.  17 of them were primarily 2B.  The only position where there’s been more is corner OF, which is really two positions (26).   So if you’re hoping to draft someone of HOF caliber, you can do as well or better at 2B than anywhere else.   Now, I’d bet the majority of those 2B were players who were shortstops in HS and moved off that position as a pro.   But that’s true of Johnson too.  Whether he will be plus defensive 2B, average or a guy who is a liability there is an important factor in whether he’d be considered for 1:1.   But IMO there’s no good reason not to give serious consideration to a prospect at 1:1 just because you think he’ll end up at 2B. 

[btdart20]

Socio-commentary aside:  Sports is pretty close to a meritocracy.  No 2B at 1.1 is for a reason.  Top MIF athletes would be playing SS at a lower level and be shifted as the competition gets stiffer.  
 

I don’t see Elias being the type of guys who will break a trend for no reason.  If Johnson is the pick, it’s because they project his bat well.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, btdart20 said:

Socio-commentary aside:  Sports is pretty close to a meritocracy.  No 2B at 1.1 is for a reason.  Top MIF athletes would be playing SS at a lower level and be shifted as the competition gets stiffer.  
 

I don’t see Elias being the type of guys who will break a trend for no reason.  If Johnson is the pick, it’s because they project his bat well.

But he has been?

They are just being realistic about his future home.

If the dude has a legit 70+ bat he could project as a 1B and still provide value.

 

[Sports Guy]

29 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’ll leave aside whether this statement is sometimes true.  In this case, I’d say it isn’t.  There are 100 position players in the Hall of Fame.  17 of them were primarily 2B.  The only position where there’s been more is corner OF, which is really two positions (26).   So if you’re hoping to draft someone of HOF caliber, you can do as well or better at 2B than anywhere else.   Now, I’d bet the majority of those 2B were players who were shortstops in HS and moved off that position as a pro.   But that’s true of Johnson too.  Whether he will be plus defensive 2B, average or a guy who is a liability there is an important factor in whether he’d be considered for 1:1.   But IMO there’s no good reason not to give serious consideration to a prospect at 1:1 just because you think he’ll end up at 2B. 

This doesn’t answer my question.  Why hasn’t there been a second baseman drafted #1?  You are saying so many stud players have been second baseman, which is true..so why none going #1?  Why don’t we see LFer only guys going first in the draft?  Why is it rare to see a first baseman go first?

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

But he has been?

They are just being realistic about his future home.

If the dude has a legit 70+ bat he could project as a 1B and still provide value.

 

He’s not a real SS.  It’s like calling Valaika versatile. 

No one is mistaking him for a SS or CF, like Jones for example.

There isn’t even much talk that he could play the COF spots and no talk of third.  He doesn’t have the arm for it.