Would you take Jones Jr at full slot (or close to it) or Termarr Johnson at $1.5M under slot?

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Hmmm.   That's two posts in a row with no answer to the question.   We all know why you aren't answering.  Hahahahahaha.

Cool

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

One word responses from the king of mud slinging.    You were okay with going underslot at #2 with Kjerstad but all of a sudden in 2022 with the #1 pick it's the dumbest strategy of all time.   You are:

1. A Hypocrite

2. A liar

3. A moron.

4. All of the Above.

Ok

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Ok

You went with #4 as well?   It's a beautiful thing when we can agree on something.

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

You went with #4 as well?   It's a beautiful thing when we can agree on something.

Ok

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Ok

These are probably the best series of posts you've ever had on here.   Keep up the good work.

[Moose Milligan]

Lol RZNJ and SG.  It never gets old.

[jabba72]

36 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Do yourself a favor and read actual experts instead of only posters.      Most reports say he has no trouble with high velocity.   Most say he'll be average "at worst" at 2B.    Now Keith Law said he saw too much swing and miss against good competition to give him a 70 hit grade.  He gave him a 60.   But show me one report that says he has trouble against high velocity or is going to be below average at 2B.   You won't be able to.

I'm not even advocating Johnson for #1 but can we please try to be ACCURATE with the stuff we post.

To me good competition tends to mean high velocity, maybe I could have phrased it better. A 60 hit tool for a guy thats 5-9 or 5-8? I feel like we made this pick before. In 2001. Mike Fontenot. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fontemi01.shtml

[RZNJ]

Just now, jabba72 said:

To me good competition tends to mean high velocity, maybe I could have phrased it better. A 60 hit tool for a guy thats 5-9 or 5-8? I feel like we made this pick before. In 2001. Mike Fontenot. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fontemi01.shtml

Hey, Termarr scares me as well.    I've stated many times that I have reservations about over hype on the hit tool.  Keith Law's take just confirmed some fears I had and YET Law has him as the 3rd best prospect in the whole draft.   These guys (Law/McDaniel/Callis/Mayo) are supposed to either know more than us or be connected to people who are supposed to know more than us.

[Jammer7]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

MLB's writeup on Johnson which ANYONE can read.

A shortstop in high school, Johnson will change positions as a pro because his quickness and arm are more average than plus. His hands work well in the field as well as at the plate and he profiles best at second base, where he should be at least a solid defender. He committed to Arizona State in May.

Look, the pipeline write ups are kinda fluffy, especially with certain top guys. Some of these write ups have things to read between the lines. 

You took a very small part of what I wrote, my opinion, and made it into a big nothing burger over a half grade. I have read it. I’m not going to look any further, this is a waste of my time. Call me out anytime, it’s what you and a few others enjoy. Carry on. 

I have my opinions based on what I have done and people I’ve learned from. I’m not a scout, no. I did coach with some. I’m nobody in particular, in fact. Just some guy who spent most of my free time coaching kids to young men, some to a higher level, for the past 16 years. I read/listen to what the national pundits say. Some are on point, IMO, and some are full of hyperbole.

The Johnson kid is deserving of being in the top 10, sure. A lofty hit tool does that, especially when the signing number isn’t particularly high. He’s got a great attitude, it seems, and he’s motivated to begin his pro career. He is being mocked to fall into the bottom of the top 10 as we get closer, though early mocks aren’t all that accurate or meaningful.

Other smallish MIF’s have had great 70 hit tools and recently got hyped into the top half of the first round or higher. Madrigal and Hiura were both top 10 picks, I believe. There was another that escapes me who was fairly high up and has not been worthy. That concerns me. Each individual is a separate case, sure. But the odds are the odds with his profile. We could argue all day about if these guys could have prospered in a different player development system or not. 

[Jammer7]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Not sure what you even mean here?

For the 6+ years of team control Altuve had:

Three batting titles.

Five All-star appearances.

Four Silver Sluggers (at 2B).

An MVP.

Three other top 20 finishes in MVP voting.

A ring.

How in the world is not that worthy of going 1-1?

He was an UDFA, so ineligible for my question. However, great career, sure. He did cheat with video for his best years, but ok, discounting that as well. So, let’s say he was drafted within the last 15 years. Would he be one of the best 15 players in MLB? Not for me, but he certainly would be not terribly far away. I see he is for you. Cool. 

[Jammer7]

33 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Hey, Termarr scares me as well.    I've stated many times that I have reservations about over hype on the hit tool.  Keith Law's take just confirmed some fears I had and YET Law has him as the 3rd best prospect in the whole draft.   These guys (Law/McDaniel/Callis/Mayo) are supposed to either know more than us or be connected to people who are supposed to know more than us.

And they’re never wrong? They miss every year. Take a moment and look back on similar players through just the past 10 years. Media darlings doing back flips in the draft studio and so on. Those guys were big tools as well. Many were even projectable, Johnson is not. Not at all.

RZ, I know your stance on him. These smallish guys are a tough profile. We’ve talked this to death, no?

[RZNJ]

15 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

Pretty much every write up I’ve seen echoes that.

I asked you about how you came to the conclusion that a best case scenario for Johnson is below average defensively at 2B and the above was your response.   Now, I said I respected your opinion and enjoyed your posts but I'm not going to let that slide and each post you've made since then is defensive and a bit much.

Pretty much every writeup doesn't echo that and I don't care how many lines you read between.   You said it would take a long time to go back and find the sources.   Is NEVER considered a long time?    You'll never find anything that says a best case scenario is below average defense because it doesn't exist.   It's complete BS.    

Now, if your opinion is that he'll be below average defensively, that's fine.   If you want to claim it's you being able to read between the lines and see something no one else can see, more power to you.   We aren't arguing over a half grade.   We are arguing over accuracy and you saying almost every writeup you've read echoes that.   They don't echo it.   You made it up.   Possibly, like another poster here, you though you read something and you were mistaken.   You've had plenty of time to own up to that mistake.

Now you claim this is just my thing.  I have never gone after you for anything ever before that I can remember.   Except for about 3 posters, I don't bust too many chops UNLESS I see somebody posting something and go "where did that come from?".    In this case, it came out of thin air.    You can own up to it or not.    Whether Johns is or becomes below average defensively is not the point anymore.   The point is that anyone who has read the infinite amount of information on this draft has seen "pretty much every writeup" you've seen does not echo your opinion.

Now, I think you're an excellent poster and I know you didn't post for a few days.   I'd hate to see that happen again.  I really do enjoy your posts and I'd consider you more expert than most of the people on here.  Just don't try to BS me.

[Jammer7]

Just now, RZNJ said:

I asked you about how you came to the conclusion that a best case scenario for Johnson is below average defensively at 2B and the above was your response.   Now, I said I respected your opinion and enjoyed your posts but I'm not going to let that slide and each post you've made since then is defensive and a bit much.

Pretty much every writeup doesn't echo that and I don't care how many lines you read between.   You said it would take a long time to go back and find the sources.   Is NEVER considered a long time?    You'll never find anything that says a best case scenario is below average defense because it doesn't exist.   It's complete BS.    

Now, if your opinion is that he'll be below average defensively, that's fine.   If you want to claim it's you being able to read between the lines and see something no one else can see, more power to you.   We aren't arguing over a half grade.   We are arguing over accuracy and you saying almost every writeup you've read echoes that.   They don't echo it.   You made it up.   Possibly, like another poster here, you though you read something and you were mistaken.   You've had plenty of time to own up to that mistake.

Now you claim this is just my thing.  I have never gone after you for anything ever before that I can remember.   Except for about 3 posters, I don't bust too many chops UNLESS I see somebody posting something and go "where did that come from?".    In this case, it came out of thin air.    You can own up to it or not.    Whether Johns is or becomes below average defensively is not the point anymore.   The point is that anyone who has read the infinite amount of information on this draft has seen "pretty much every writeup" you've seen does not echo your opinion.

Now, I think you're an excellent poster and I know you didn't post for a few days.   I'd hate to see that happen again.  I really do enjoy your posts and I'd consider you more expert than most of the people on here.  Just don't try to BS me.

Ok. We’re done. 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

He was an UDFA, so ineligible for my question. However, great career, sure. He did cheat with video for his best years, but ok, discounting that as well. So, let’s say he was drafted within the last 15 years. Would he be one of the best 15 players in MLB? Not for me, but he certainly would be not terribly far away. I see he is for you. Cool. 

I'm only worried about what a player does during the period he would be under team control.

If he falls off Jason Heyward style after that, I don't care.

Altuve certainly provided a ton of value in that time period.

As for not being draft eligible, that would be why I said, "Obviously he wasn't draft eligible". 

I thought the concern was with players of a certain height not U.S. players of a certain height?  That seems kinda sketchy....

As for the video, I think almost every player cheats whenever they think they can get away with it.  I don't think the Astros were alone and we have history of teams doing similar stuff decades ago.

 

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

And they’re never wrong? They miss every year. Take a moment and look back on similar players through just the past 10 years. Media darlings doing back flips in the draft studio and so on. Those guys were big tools as well. Many were even projectable, Johnson is not. Not at all.

RZ, I know your stance on him. These smallish guys are a tough profile. We’ve talked this to death, no?

It's not about him being small to me.  Tall guys are tough to gauge too.   How many 6'4" busts can we find in the draft?