Which player would you be most/least excited about?

[LTO's]

18 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

There are rumors out there that his number is $10 million.

Yeah, i'm absolutely out on that. He's not that good of a prospect relative to the others.

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, LTO's said:

Yeah, i'm absolutely out on that. He's not that good of a prospect relative to the others.

Even McDaniel who is higher on Jones than most, would take Termarr or Holliday at that point.   

[SpOkane]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Not enough money to spend to go BpA for 10 rounds.  They can do it for like 4-6 picks, which is fine.

Right. I should have said BPA at slot value.

[jrobb21613]

Geeen would excite me the most just because of his size and athleticism. From all accounts he has the highest ceiling but I doubt he’s drafted 1:1. The strikeouts and swing and miss are quite alarming unless Elias feels confident we can correct those issues.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Why would they have an investigation?

 

 

I'm all for players using whatever leverage they can muster to get the most money or the landing spot they desire.

You know who’s not for it?  The owners.   I’m sure they frown on rogue teams who overtly disrupt their collusive slotting system.   It’s one thing to pay overslot, it’s another thing to talk a player out of signing for less with a team that has an earlier pick.  Enough of that behavior and the whole slotting system falls apart and the draft becomes more like an auction. That would make the owners very unhappy.   And, it would benefit the rich teams.   

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

So, let’s say the Orioles take Druw Jones at 1-1. The fans are elated. All is well. Let’s say Jones does not sign and goes on to Vandy. I believe we would still get pick #2 in 2023. We lose the ability to spend a large portion of our pool, roughly half. How do you feel about that?

Personally, I doubt he turns down $8.3 million. There are rumors out there that his number is $10 million. Jones obviously has money from his dad, so who knows. From all of the things I’ve read and heard on pods, the industry does not seem to think Jones will need full slot at 1-1.

The big question about saving money and taking Termarr Johnson is who are the potential targets we supposedly need to save money for later in the draft? Then, will they be there when we pick? This draft is supposed to be rich in HS pitching beyond round 1, according to Joe Doyle of Prospects Live. That is the riskiest demographic as well. A lot of talk about the college pitchers coming off injuries. None of those guys should need big over slot deals. There are some interesting position players available around 33 and 41 as well, like Peyton Graham, Cayden Wallace and Jacob Melton.

Cade Horton was a guy that I wanted at pick 41 before the College World Series. Then, he went and dominated. His stock jumped. So, he should be gone before we pick at 33. And he will want an over slot to come out early as a sophomore. 

 

 

If he’s picked first and gets a fair offer, he’s not going to college.

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If he’s picked first and gets a fair offer, he’s not going to college.

What’s fair?  Honestly the whole concept is warped here.  In a free market, Jones would get significantly more than what the 1:1 slot is.   So would several other guys, probably.  

[Can_of_corn]

45 minutes ago, Frobby said:

You know who’s not for it?  The owners.   I’m sure they frown on rogue teams who overtly disrupt their collusive slotting system.   It’s one thing to pay overslot, it’s another thing to talk a player out of signing for less with a team that has an earlier pick.  Enough of that behavior and the whole slotting system falls apart and the draft becomes more like an auction. That would make the owners very unhappy.   And, it would benefit the rich teams.   

I think that with the slotting system in place that you won't see enough of this sort of behavior to cause an issue.

Even before the current slotting system we didn't see much of this.  The only examples I can think of are Heyward and Jeter.

If the Diamondback or Mets want to pull a Jasson and punt a large part of their draft for a single player I don't think the other teams will care that much.

There is also no guarantee that teams won't pick the player anyway, look at Jud Fabian last year for an example.

[MurphDogg]

Anybody but Jones and I would need to be excited about the overslots.

I had no problem with the Cowser pick from a strategy perspective, I just didn't think Rhodes and Willems were good enough as the corresponding overslot picks.

[Sports Guy]

15 minutes ago, Frobby said:

What’s fair?  Honestly the whole concept is warped here.  In a free market, Jones would get significantly more than what the 1:1 slot is.   So would several other guys, probably.  

No doubt but the reality is the slotting system is what it is..just as it is in other drafts in pro leagues.

And fair is something in the area of slot money.  If Jones goes 1 and the Os offer 6M, he probably won’t sign.  But if he breaks records and goes 1, he’s signing.

[Jammer7]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If he’s picked first and gets a fair offer, he’s not going to college.

Normally, I agree. This one feels different. You may be correct, but he has money. He is a bit of a rock star, and he wants to be respected/paid as such. This one is all over the place. Like @Frobbysaid, what is fair?

So, with that, is there a scenario where we’re willing to pay him a bit over slot? Maybe $9.5 million? We can still have a great draft after 1-1, just limit the over slot possibilities. Personally, I do it. Not my money, but he has next level tools, instincts, game knowledge and competitiveness. He is a really elite competitor. If you believe in your minor league player development folks, you take the best talent, as long as they have the intangibles you want. Is he coachable? It seems he is.

If you have a chance to acquire a guy who comps to his dad, you do it at 1-1. He reminds me of Julio Rodriguez, tools wise, but he could be more like Adam Jones with more speed. With more guys hitting balls in the air, why not get a guy who is projecting as a perennial all star and gold glove fielder in CF? Ground ball rates are around 43% per a Bleacher Report article I read and posted here a few days ago. Among the lowest in the history of the game.

Take Jones, take a few senior signs for low $$, take the 5% overage to add around $800K to your pool, and you can still have a great draft. Even if it means you go over a bit at 33 and 41, go slot at 67 and have to go under the rest of the way through round 10. Thanks to COVID, there are senior sign opportunities out there who will bring good value. Maybe some pitchers they like with their desirable attributes.

As an aside, I wonder if MLB owners/commissioner discourage paying over slot at 1-1. I would imagine they cringe at the thought. 

[Sports Guy]

49 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

Normally, I agree. This one feels different. You may be correct, but he has money. He is a bit of a rock star, and he wants to be respected/paid as such. This one is all over the place. Like @Frobbysaid, what is fair?

So, with that, is there a scenario where we’re willing to pay him a bit over slot? Maybe $9.5 million? We can still have a great draft after 1-1, just limit the over slot possibilities. Personally, I do it. Not my money, but he has next level tools, instincts, game knowledge and competitiveness. He is a really elite competitor. If you believe in your minor league player development folks, you take the best talent, as long as they have the intangibles you want. Is he coachable? It seems he is.

If you have a chance to acquire a guy who comps to his dad, you do it at 1-1. He reminds me of Julio Rodriguez, tools wise, but he could be more like Adam Jones with more speed. With more guys hitting balls in the air, why not get a guy who is projecting as a perennial all star and gold glove fielder in CF? Ground ball rates are around 43% per a Bleacher Report article I read and posted here a few days ago. Among the lowest in the history of the game.

Take Jones, take a few senior signs for low $$, take the 5% overage to add around $800K to your pool, and you can still have a great draft. Even if it means you go over a bit at 33 and 41, go slot at 67 and have to go under the rest of the way through round 10. Thanks to COVID, there are senior sign opportunities out there who will bring good value. Maybe some pitchers they like with their desirable attributes.

As an aside, I wonder if MLB owners/commissioner discourage paying over slot at 1-1. I would imagine they cringe at the thought. 

Here is how I’m looking at this draft.

There was talk before of tiers.  I have Jones and Holliday in the top tier.  Jones is ahead. 

The next tier consists of Lee, Johnson, Collier, Parada and Green.  Of those, only Green is a guy I think is worthy of the first pick IF you feel his swing and miss issue is either easily correctable or just in general overblown.  Outside of that on Green, I don’t feel anyone else should be considered with the top pick.

In the past, I have felt that there was a big need to hit on a high pick and favored the idea of playing it safe.  I don’t feel that way for this draft (and I say that and think Jones is as safe a pick as anyone).  I feel there is a need to go after elite, franchise change high level talent.  This is likely the last draft they will be able to do that for some time and I think, especially after tanking and being so horrible for so long, that they need to take advantage of that. 
 

You don’t often get the first pick and I want to see them make this one count by adding the best talent on the board for them, Not the guy they can save on to spend on players even more unlikely to make the majors later on.

Also, I think we need to remember that teams usually have far different boards than the experts do.  We hear it every year.  If you watch the NBA and NFL drafts like I do, you know guys fall, guys don’t align with the teams boards, etc…we also know that what Elias says means nothing.  It’s all GM speak and tactics.

This is all to say, hell yea I pay Jones 9-10M if you feel he is on a level by himself and is the guy you really want. The money difference matters but it also doesn’t.  If he’s the guy you want, you don’t let a million bucks stop you from getting him.  I don’t care what it does to your draft budget.

I would trade our entire 2021 draft for Lawlar right now and I like Cowser a lot but I don’t really like anyone else all that much although I do agree that Norby has a chance at being a 2-3 WAR second baseman.

If you spend 10M on Jones, you still have 7.7M (including the 800+K overage you can use) to sign guys.  Your last 7 picks can all be punted and you draft guys for 100k or less signing bonuses.  That leaves you with approximately 7M for 4 picks, which is the slot value for those picks.  You can still get good players at slot value or barely above it.  
 

So yea, you absolutely do it if he’s your guy.  Now, if you have Jones and say Holliday neck and neck, the decision becomes harder.  But that also depends on how you evaluate this draft.  I mean, how many draftable guys with real talent to be good MLers are there?  How deep does that list go?  The Os have the 33rd and 42nd pick.  If they took the remaining 7M and spent 6 of it on those guys, I’m fine with that.
 

 

[Jammer7]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Here is how I’m looking at this draft.

There was talk before of tiers.  I have Jones and Holliday in the top tier.  Jones is ahead. 

The next tier consists of Lee, Johnson, Collier, Parada and Green.  Of those, only Green is a guy I think is worthy of the first pick IF you feel his swing and miss issue is either easily correctable or just in general overblown.  Outside of that on Green, I don’t feel anyone else should be considered with the top pick.

In the past, I have felt that there was a big need to hit on a high pick and favored the idea of playing it safe.  I don’t feel that way for this draft (and I say that and think Jones is as safe a pick as anyone).  I feel there is a need to go after elite, franchise change high level talent.  This is likely the last draft they will be able to do that for some time and I think, especially after tanking and being so horrible for so long, that they need to take advantage of that. 
 

You don’t often get the first pick and I want to see them make this one count by adding the best talent on the board for them, Not the guy they can save on to spend on players even more unlikely to make the majors later on.

Also, I think we need to remember that teams usually have far different boards than the experts do.  We hear it every year.  If you watch the NBA and NFL drafts like I do, you know guys fall, guys don’t align with the teams boards, etc…we also know that what Elias says means nothing.  It’s all GM speak and tactics.

This is all to say, hell yea I pay Jones 9-10M if you feel he is on a level by himself and is the guy you really want. The money difference matters but it also doesn’t.  If he’s the guy you want, you don’t let a million bucks stop you from getting him.  I don’t care what it does to your draft budget.

I would trade our entire 2021 draft for Lawlar right now and I like Cowser a lot but I don’t really like anyone else all that much although I do agree that Norby has a chance at being a 2-3 WAR second baseman.

If you spend 10M on Jones, you still have 7.7M (including the 800+K overage you can use) to sign guys.  Your last 7 picks can all be punted and you draft guys for 100k or less signing bonuses.  That leaves you with approximately 7M for 4 picks, which is the slot value for those picks.  You can still get good players at slot value or barely above it.  
 

So yea, you absolutely do it if he’s your guy.  Now, if you have Jones and say Holliday neck and neck, the decision becomes harder.  But that also depends on how you evaluate this draft.  I mean, how many draftable guys with real talent to be good MLers are there?  How deep does that list go?  The Os have the 33rd and 42nd pick.  If they took the remaining 7M and spent 6 of it on those guys, I’m fine with that.
 

 

We agree. For me, Jones is in his own tier, and it really isn’t close. Anything else is because they feel Jones’ price was too steep in order to gamble on higher end talent later. Others will be fine players, but Jones is a star. Collier may just turn out to be the best power hitter, or Green. But Jones does everything so well. When he used the whole field this year, and increased his hard contact, that solidified it for me.

It’s not my money, but he is our CF in three years. It’s like putting a free agent star on layaway. That sounds cheap, so that should work when Mike goes to sell it to the Angelos’ decision makers. 

[RZNJ]

18 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

We agree. For me, Jones is in his own tier, and it really isn’t close. Anything else is because they feel Jones’ price was too steep in order to gamble on higher end talent later. Others will be fine players, but Jones is a star. Collier may just turn out to be the best power hitter, or Green. But Jones does everything so well. When he used the whole field this year, and increased his hard contact, that solidified it for me.

It’s not my money, but he is our CF in three years. It’s like putting a free agent star on layaway. That sounds cheap, so that should work when Mike goes to sell it to the Angelos’ decision makers. 

How can you say your agree when he had Jones and Holliday on the same tier and you have Jones on his own tier and "it's not even close"?

Also, what is that based on?    There is not one evaluator out there that agrees with you from what I've read.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

How can you say your agree when he had Jones and Holliday on the same tier and you have Jones on his own tier and "it's not even close"?

Also, what is that based on?    There is not one evaluator out there that agrees with you from what I've read.

Why do you keep asking this?  Jammer has made his point on why he likes Jones over and over again.  If it’s how he feels, it’s how he feels.  
 

Lots of evaluators thought Austin Martin was a stud.  I didn’t agree.  I have seen Tony say he didn’t like his profile.  Does that mean he was wrong because he didn’t agree with the consensus?

I think we all put a lot of weight into what those guys say because, after all, we don’t see these guys outside of highlights.  
 

However, based off of what is said, personal preferences, preferred strategies, etc…you formulate your opinions based off of it.

You keep poo pooing the process and act like it means nothing.  I happen to disagree.  The process is everything and part of the process is the on purpose losing of this franchise when your only reward is the draft.  For me, I want the best, most elite, highest ceiling guy.  I happen to think that’s Jones AND he’s a pretty safe pick imo. He’s the best of both worlds.

Why isn’t that enough for you?  Why is it always, well the evaluators don’t agree with that, so that’s not true.  What if Elias feels that way?  Is he wrong?